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| 44-Day Hybrid Model | Hybrid Model & Natural Gas Demand ***NEW!*** | Day 1-14 Near-Term Outlook (GFS vs ECMWF) |Day 15-44 Long-Term Outlook (CFS vs ECMWF-EPS)


This page incorporates data from a variety of near-term and long-term computer models to project gas-weighted degree days (GWDDs) for the next 6 weeks. GWDDs represent a combination of heating and cooling degree days and natural gas geographic usage patterns to generate a temperature-dependent projection of relative natural gas demand. The GFS ENS model updates four times daily, the ECMWF ENS and CFS models twice daily, and the ECMWF-EPS model twice weekly. All attempts will be made to issue new updates timely, but data may be delayed. The data below is numerical only and processed according to proprietary algorithms as sharing ECMWF maps is disallowed.

44-Day Hybrid Forecast




44-Day Hybrid Forecast & Natural Gas Demand

The data below may not exactly match near- and long-term natural gas projection data found on other pages on the site since these numbers are updated immediately upon release of the model run (and not at the 600 EDT and 1800 EDT natural gas storage model updates) and also do not include small adjustments made based on pipeline data.


Daily Natural Gas Storage Statistics


Model Spread Statistics

4 different models make up the Hybrid Model, the short term GFS and ECMWF ENS and the long-term ECMWF-EPS and CFSv2. Naturally, these models do not always agree and present slightly different solutions to the temperature outlook, which translates to a spread in projected natural gas demand. The data below shows the level of disagreement in these models and the degree to which it impacts gas demand and storage over the next 44 days.


14-Day Near-Term Forecast



Day 15-44 Long-Term Forecast