Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Monday, March 18, 2024
Natural Gas Falls To Wrap Up Bearish Week, But Colder-Than-Normal March Temperature Outlook & Lower Year-Over-Year Supply Should Support Near-Term Upside; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today With Bullish Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected As Chilly Temperatures Expand Across The East; The Natural Gas Storage Surplus Has Peaked



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Friday, March 15, 2024
Natural Gas Snaps 6-Session Losing Skid After EIA Reports Better-Than-Expected Withdrawal & LNG Exports Could Be Poised To Jump; Near-Term Gas Prices Likely To Remain Rangebound With A Bullish Bias; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Ohio Valley Cools; Rare Bullish Withdrawal Possible Next Week As Cooler Temperatures Return


Thursday, March 14, 2024
Natural Gas Slumps To 6-Straight Loss & Closes Back In On 3-Year Lows; Oil Prices Rally After Larger-Than-Expected EIA Gasoline Inventory Drawdown; EIA Projected To Announce Very Bearish +2 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Mid-April Warmth Dominates The Ohio Valley & East


Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Natural Gas Logs Fifth Straight Loss Despite CNX Production Cut & EIA’s Downward Supply Revision; 5-Session Losing Streak Cuts Into Overvaluation; Oil Prices Drop But Bullish EIA Petroleum Status Report Expected Today; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today As Unseasonable Heartland Warmth Drives Bearish Daily Storage Injection


Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Natural Gas Records Fourth Straight Loss On Milder Temperature Outlook, Flat Production, & Lower LNG Exports; Pullback Continues, But Prices Unlikely To Retest Lows; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Builds Eastward With Bearish Daily Storage Injection Expected


Monday, March 11, 2024
Natural Gas Records Rangebound Week After Big Rally, But I Give The Bulls A Modest Edge Here On Lower Production & Potential Mid-March Cooldown; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Builds Across The Heartland With Near-Average Daily Storage Withdrawal Projected


Friday, March 8, 2024
Sell The News: Natural Gas Falls Sharply In Overdue Pullback As Investors Unimpressed With EIA Storage Withdrawal; Rangebound Trading Still Likely As Investors Wait For Production Drop To Impact Storage; Historic Weekly Storage Injection Possible In Next Thursday’s EIA Report; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply This Weekend On Quick Cold Snap, But It Won’t Last (Again)


Thursday, March 7, 2024
Natural Gas Pulls Back On Profit-Taking While Oil Prices Gain After Better-Than-Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report; Could We See A Mid-March Cold Snap? EIA Projected To Announce -37 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Closely-Watched Storage Report


Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Defying Gravity: Natural Gas Finds A Way To Settle In The Black After Late-Session Rally Even As Overvaluation Widens; Oil Prices Dip Ahead Of Expected Neutral Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Edge Slightly Higher Today With Tiny Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected As Unseasonable Warmth Continues Slow Retreat


Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies To 1-Month High On EQT Product Cut Pledge—And On Observed Production Declines—But Prices Are Becoming Overheated Here; Gas Demand Poised To Rise Slightly Today On Cooler Midwest, But Another Bearish Daily Storage Injection Is Still Expected


Monday, March 4, 2024
Natural Logs First Weekly Gain Since January As Bullish Production Drop Overpowers Mild Temperature Outlook & 8-Year High Storage Surplus; Bulls Have Returned To The Playing Field But Shouldn’t Rest On Their Laurels; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today But Another Bearish Daily Storage Injection Is Still Expected; Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average Projected To Top +600 BCF Today


Friday, March 1, 2024
Natural Gas Pulls Back Slightly After Bearish, But Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Withdrawal; Third Highest Seasonal Minimum Storage Level Expected This Spring; Rangebound Trading With An Upward Bias Expected Near-Term; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Quick-Hitting Cold Snap Retreats; Historic Storage Injection Possible Next Week


Thursday, February 29, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies In April’s First Front-Month Session On Continued Production Drops & Hints Of Cooler Mid-March Temperatures; Overvaluations Versus Fair Price Widening; Oil Falls Slightly After Bearish EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish-92 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today On Short-Lived Cold Snap


Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Front Month Natural Gas Contract Slumps Into Expiration But Later Contracts Rally As Gas Prices Find Themselves Sandwiched Between Bullish & Bearish Catalysts; Oil Rises On Potential Extension Of OPEC Production Cuts But Bearish Crude Build Is Likely In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand Poised To Rise Sharply Today As Potent Cold Front Drives Impressive Day-Over-Day Cooldown


Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies On Monday As Production Drop Outweighs Record Warmth Among Investors; Options Expirations Shenanigans On Tap Today As March Contract Set To Expire; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today With Rare February Storage Injection Expected But Encroaching Cold Front Will Soon Bring A Brief Taste Of Winter


Monday, February 26, 2024
Natural Gas Falls On Friday As Post-Chesapeake Pullback Continues; Bottom Still Likely In As Investor Focus Pivots From Weather To Supply; Choppy, Rangebound Trading Expected But Watch Out For Another Short Squeeze As Speculative Short Exposure Reaches 4-Year High; Daily Storage Injection Likely Today As Record Warmth Builds Into The Heartland


Friday, February 23, 2024
Natural Gas Drops, But Trims Losses In Afternoon Recovery As Very Bearish Temperatures Outlook & Storage Glut Is Countered By Lower Production & Lingering Chesapeake CapEx Cuts Optimism; Projected Season-Ending Storage Levels To Be The Third Highest On Record; Gas Demand To Inch Slightly Higher Today; But A Bearish Weekly Withdrawal Is Likely; Spring-Like Warmth Next Week To Drive Daily Storage Injections


Thursday, February 22, 2024
The Bottom Is In: CHK Plays OPEC & Sends Natural Gas Blasting Off 3-Year Lows; Expect A Period Of Rangebound Trading As Storage Glut Likely To Persist; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -71 BCF Storage Withdrawal In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall To Weekly Low Today As Unseasonably Mild Temperatures Spread Eastward


Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Natural Gas Prices Slip To 3+ Year Low Tuesday After Bearish Holiday Weekend Temperature Trends, But The Real Fireworks Happen After The Close; Bottoming Is Never Pretty—And This Is What It Looks Like; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Spring-Like Temperatures Expand Across The Heartland


Natural Gas Falls Edges Lower For Eighth Straight Loss To Fresh 3+ Year Low, But Chalk It Up As A Win For The Bulls After Ugly EIA Storage Miss; Storage Levels Now Projected To Bottom At Third Highs Level On Record; Gas Demand To Rise Today And This Weekend On Quick Hitting Cold Snap, But It Won’t Last


Thursday, February 15, 2024
Natural Gas Stretches Losing Streak To Seven As Bearish Sentiment Dominates The Market; When Will The Bounce Come? Oil Prices Drop After Disappointing EIA Crude Inventory Build; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +66 BCF Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Warmth Expands Eastward; Storage Surplus Projected To Top +400 BCF By This Afternoon


Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Natural Gas Prices Slump For 6th Straight Session On Absent Winter; Was This A Record Low For Natural Gas? Oil Prices Defy Broad Markets, Gain On Middle East Tension; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build But Bullish Refined Product Drawdowns In Today’s Status Report; Natural Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today On Cool East & Rockies But Unseasonably Warm Heartland


Monday, February 12, 2024
Natural Gas Slides To Fresh 3+ Year Lows As Prices Record Second Straight Double Digit Percent Weekly Loss; Gas Prices Likely To Face Additional Early-Week Selling Pressure After Forecast Cold Fizzles (Again) Over The Weekend; When Will Production Freeze-Offs Come Into Play? Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Temperatures Cool Across The South, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Is Still Likely


Monday, February 12, 2024
Natural Gas Slides To Fresh 3+ Year Lows As Prices Record Second Straight Double Digit Percent Weekly Loss; Gas Prices Likely To Face Additional Early-Week Selling Pressure After Forecast Cold Fizzles (Again) Over The Weekend; When Will Production Freeze-Offs Come Into Play? Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Temperatures Cool Across The South, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Is Still Likely


Friday, February 9, 2024
Bulls Increase Stranglehold On Natural Gas Sector After EIA Withdrawal Fails To Impress & Prices Drop To Fresh 3-Year Low; Near-Term Temperature Outlook Pivots Milder As Models Retreat From Consistently Colder-Than-Normal Mid-To-Late February Outlook; Generational Buying Opportunity Coming, But Beleaguered Bulls Need A Catalyst To Stop The Bleeding First


Thursday, February 8, 2024
Natural Gas Breaks Below $2/MMBTU To 3-Year Low As Bulls Can’t Find A Catalyst Despite Widening Fundamental Undervaluation; Oil Prices Rise After EIA Reports Bullish Refined Product Drawdowns; EIA Projected To Announce Very Bearish -74 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Expands Eastward; Gas Demand Set To (Finally) Bottom In Three Days


Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Too Little, Too Late? Natural Gas Sinks Towards 3-Year Low Even As Mid-February Outlook Continues To Look Colder-Than-Normal; Oil Prices Rally Ahead Of Expected Crude Oil Inventory Build Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Expands Eastward; Gas Demand Expected To Bottom This Weekend


Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Hurry Up & Wait: Forecast Doesn’t Give The Bulls Or The Bears What They Want; Investors Pause & Await Mid-February Temperature Trends; Gas Demand To Edge Higher To Weekly High Today On Cooler Southeast & West Before Slumping Into The Weekend


Monday, February 5, 2024
Natural Gas Logs Small Gain As Investors Eye Mid-February Pattern Shift, But Hurdles Remain For A Sustained Rally; Speculative Short Positions Spike, But Bulls Don’t Throw In The Towel; Typical El Nino: Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today On Cool South & Stormy West, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Still Likely As Upper Midwest Remains Unseasonably Mild


Friday, February 2, 2024
Undervaluations Be Damned, Natural Gas Falls To 10-Month Low After EIA Withdrawal Fails To Satisfy & Early February Temperature Outlook Remains Unseasonably Mild; Price Action Dependent On Mid-To-Late February Pattern Shift; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today, But Very Bearish Weekly Withdrawal Expected; Storage Surplus Expected To Top +300 BCF By Next Week As January Thaw Extends Into February


Thursday, February 1, 2024
Natural Gas Trades Higher For Second Session In A Row As Soft Production & Improving Temperature Outlook Bolster Sentiment; This Is Bottoming Action, But It Still Might Be Too Soon For A Bottom; Oil Slumps After Disappointing EIA Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish -202 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall To Near-Term Low Today As Unseasonable Warmth Dominates The Lower 48


Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Dip Buyers Test The Waters In Rare Green Session Even As February Temperature Outlook Stays Unseasonably Mild; Have We Seen The Bottom? Don’t Count On It; Oil Rises On IMF Upgrades & Middle East Tensions; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Exceptional Warmth Expands Across The Heartland