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Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Friday, February 15, 2019
Natural Gas Flat Near 2-Year Lows After Uninspiring EIA Storage Report & Warming Long-Term Models While Crude Oil Rises On US-China Trade War Optimism; Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens On Recovering LNG Feedgas & Discounted Prices; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Arctic Air Expands, Driving A Return To Bullish Weekly Storage Withdrawals



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Thursday, February 14, 2019
Hard Knocks: Natural Gas Tumbles After Arctic Outbreak Gets CANCELLED; Crude Oil Rises Despite Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Build On Weak Imports & Bullish Goldman Comments; EIA Projected To Announce Exceptionally Bearish -78 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today On Warming East


Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Natural Gas Poised To Pullback As Near-Term Models Favor Less Frigid Late-February Outlook; EIA Forecast To Report Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Draw Today; Near-Average Natural Gas Daily Storage Withdrawal Likely Today As Northern Plains Remain Cold; LNG Export Data Is Back And Shows Rebounding Demand


Monday, February 11, 2019
Natural Gas Looks To Extend Bounce From 2-Year Lows As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Trends Colder Over The Weekend Even As Highly Uncertain March Forecast Warms; Crude Oil Still Digesting January Gains As Strong Dollar & Demand Fears Weigh; Gas Demand To Fall To Near-Average Today As Midwest Moderates


Friday, February 8, 2019
Natural Gas Priced For Imperfection As Prices Fall To A 2-Year Low After EIA Storage Miss & Warming Long-Term Models; Key Temperature-Adjusted Supply/Demand Imbalance Metric Loosens As LNG Exports Fall; Gas Demand To Soar Today With The First Bullish Daily Withdrawal In Over A Week Likely As Arctic Air Floods South


Thursday, February 7, 2019
Undervalued Natural Gas Tries To Bottom As Models Trend Colder; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish -246 BCF Storage Withdrawal In Today's Report, Likely The Largest Of The Season; Crude Oil Rises After Smaller-Than-Expected Inventory Build; One More Day Of Bearish Gas Demand Today Before Arctic Air Races Eastward On Friday


Monday, February 4, 2019
Natural Gas Prices Wilts Despite Large Undervaluation & Tightening Market Balance As Unseasonable Warmth Dominates The East & Crushes Demand; Exceptionally Weak -5 BCF/day Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected Today As Demand Bottoms For The Weak; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Sees Second Best Month In Its History


Thursday, January 31, 2019
EIA Projected To Announce Modestly Bullish -188 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal In Today's Report, But Investors Still Taking Their Marching Orders From The Computer Models; Realtime Storage Projected To Fall Under 2000 BCF Today As The Polar Vortex Rages On; Crude Oil Soars After Inventories Rise Less Than Expected & Imports Plunge


Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Polar Vortex Edition: Record-Breaking Cold Arrives Driving Natural Gas Demand To A New 2019 High; EIA Forecast To Announce Modestly Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today's Status Report; Introducing A New Model To Calculate A Key Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Balance Metric


Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Natural Gas Falls Under $3.00/MMBTU To Winter Low As Investors Look Past Historic Arctic Outbreak Towards Rapid Warm-Up; Long-Term Models Still Calling For Cold February, But Evolving Set-Up Could Blunt Impact On Population Centers; Arctic Air Plunges Southward Sending Gas Demand Soaring Today As Inventories Near 2000 BCF


Monday, January 28, 2019
Natural Gas Poised To Drop Sharply Today As Near-Term Models Trend Warmer Over The Weekend; Dangerous, Record-Setting Arctic Blast Still Likely This Week, But Impacts To Be Short-Lived With 80-Degree One-Week Warm-Ups Possible; Long-Term Outlook Still Favors Cold Back-Half Of February; Crude Oil Poised For A Near-Term Pullback


Friday, January 25, 2019
Natural Gas Rallies On Prospect For Dangerous Arctic Outbreak Next Week While WTI Oil Climbs Despite Bearish EIA Storage Build; Gas Demand To Rise Today As East Coast Cools And First Of 3+ Arctic Airmasses Settles Over The Midwest; Bullish Natural Gas Storage Withdrawals Now Projected For Each Of 4 Weeks


Thursday, January 24, 2019
A Busy, Bearish Day For The EIA: Agency Expected To Announce +6.5 MMbbl Crude Oil Inventory Build In Delayed Petroleum Status Report And -158 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal; Gas Demand To Begin Ramping Up Today As Arctic Air Floods Into Northern Plains; With Rising Storage Deficit & Bitterly Cold Near-Term Outlook, Why Are Natural Gas Prices Falling?


Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Bearish Sentiment Engulfs Natural Gas In Second Worst Trading Day Of The 2010s After Temperature Outlook Moderates; Natural Gas Now Steeply Undervalued Across All Timeframes, But Beware The Falling Knife; Year-Over-Year Storage Surplus Projected To Flip Back To A Deficit Today After Only A 6-Day Stint


Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Sell-The-News Edition: Natural Gas Gives Up Friday's Gains & Then Some In Holiday Trade As Investors Respond To Near-Term Model Moderating Trend; Natural Gas Undervaluation Rises As Long-Term February Outlook Remains Consistently Colder-Than-Normal; Gas Demand To Drop Today Ahead Of The Next Wave Of Arctic Air


Monday, January 21, 2019
Holiday Snippet Edition: Natural Gas Looks To Give Up Friday's Gains In Holiday Electronic Trade As Models Back Away From Record-Setting Arctic Outbreak, But Large Undervaluation Should Limit Losses; Gas Demand To Rise To New Seasonal High Today As Arctic Air Remains Entrenched; Crude Oil Surges On Falling Rig Count, But Gains Could Be Tenuous


Friday, January 18, 2019
Natural Gas Can't Hold Gains After The EIA Reports A Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Draw & Near-Term Temperature Outlook Moderates--But Bulls Are Still In The Fight; Crude Oil Recovers After US-China Rumors; Domestic Supply Rises To All-Time Record High; Gas Demand To Bottom Today As Arctic Air Returns This Weekend


Thursday, January 17, 2019
Undervalued Natural Gas Falls For A Second Day As Near-Term Computer Models Oscillate; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -84 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Oil Rises Despite Another Bearish Petroleum Status Report; Natural Gas Inventories Forecast To Flip To A Year-Over-Year Surplus Today For The First Time In Over 2 Years--But It Will Be Short-Lived


Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Natural Gas Pulls Back After 20% Rally As Near-Term Outlook Moderates From Bitterly Cold To Just Very Cold; EIA Forecast To Announce Another Bearish Inventory Draw Today As Bulls' Patients Gets Tested; Gas Demand To Fall For A Second Day Today As Northeast Warms Despite Early Arctic Air Across The Northern Plains


Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Volatility Is Back, Baby: Natural Gas Soars On Monday To Push Two-Session Gains To Over +20% As Multiple Arctic Blasts Likely Beginning Next Week; 2019 Year-To-Date Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Gains Top +7.5%--But I May Have Moved Too Soon; Backwardation Puts The Bears On The Clock, But Bulls Still Need To Keep Exuberance In Check


Monday, January 14, 2019
Natural Gas Poised To Extend Friday's Gains To Start The Week As Arctic Air Increasingly Likely Beginning Late This Week; Natural Gas Still Undervalued--But Don't Get Greedy, This Is Not November Redux; Today's Daily Withdrawal Projected To Top The 5-Year Average For The First Time In 2019 Before Fading For The Rest Of The Week


Friday, January 11, 2019
Natural Gas Volatility Continues To Tumbles Despite Threat Of Late-January Arctic Invasion & Larger-Than-Expected EIA Storage Withdrawal While Crude Oil Stretches Winning Streak To 9 Straight Days; Long-Standing Year-Over-Year Natural Gas Storage Deficit To Flip To Surplus Next Week Just Before Arctic Air Arrives


Thursday, January 10, 2019
Low-Volatility Natural Gas Trading Continues, Even As Near-Term Computer Models Hint At More Legitimate Arctic Air, While Oil Rises To 1-Month High Despite Ugly EIA Report; EIA Projected Announce Exceptionally Bearish -79 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today--But Do Investors Really Care? Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio 2019 Gains Top +5%


Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Natural Gas Tries To Rally With So-So Catalyst As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Trends Modestly Colder; Crude Oil Tops $50/Barrel Overnight Ahead Of Today's Forecast Slightly Bullish EIA Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Sharply Recover Today As Projected Realtime Inventories Fall Under 2600 BCF


Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Natural Gas Gives Up Friday Gains But Avoids Sell-Off As Short-Term Models Stabilize; Oil Rises But Speculative Rally May Be Running Out Of Steam; Gas Demand To (Finally) Bottom Today With Exceptionally Bearish -2 BCF/day Draw As Warmth Shifts East; Long-Term Computer Models In Good Agreement On Return Of Seasonally Cool Temperatures, But Sustained Arctic Air Absent


Monday, January 7, 2019
Natural Gas Rallies To Finish The Week Despite An Ugly EIA Storage Report But Looks To Give These Gains Today Back After Weekend Models Trend Warmer; Gas Demand To Fall For A Fifth Straight Day Today As Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Falls Under -400 BCF; Yes, The Near-Term Temperature Outlook Is Bearish, But Short Sellers Won't Sleep Well At Night


Friday, January 4, 2019
EIA To Pitch A Double Header With Twin Storage Reports Today: Bearish -37 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Expected While API Calls For A Fifth Straight Crude Oil Inventory Draw; Gas Demand To Fall With Single-Digit Daily Withdrawal Expected Today--And Things Will Only Get Worse Next Week As Warmth Builds


Thursday, January 3, 2019
Natural Gas Opens The Year On A Sedate Note, But Mild Temperature Outlook And Absent Bullish Catalyst Overwhelm Large Fundamental Undervaluation; Crude Oil Rises But Gives Back Gains Overnight After Apple Earnings Miss; Gas Demand To Begin Weeklong Downturn Today As Temperatures Warm Across The Heartland


Wednesday, January 2, 2019
2019 Starting Gun Edition: Natural Gas Plunges 11% on Monday To Finish Worst Month Since 2003, But Is Now Very Undervalued; Gas Demand To Peak Today Before Beginning A Week-Long Slide; Long-Term Models Indicate Warmer-Than-Average Temperatures Through The Third Week Of January Before Possible Return To More Supportive Weather Pattern


Monday, December 31, 2018
Natural Gas Set To Extend Last Week's Sell-Off In Holiday-Shortened Trading Session Today As Exceptionally Bearish Near-Term Temperature Outlook Becomes Even More So Over The Weekend; Crude Oil Tries To Establish A Bottom Amidst Large Undervaluation Following Fourth Straight Inventory Draw; Gas Demand To Drop Today After Short-Lived Weekend Cooldown


Friday, December 28, 2018
Natural Gas Rallies For A Second Day Ahead Of Expiration While Oil Succumbs To Profit-Taking; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Natural Gas Withdrawal And Crude Oil Build In Today's Twin Storage Reports; Near-Term Temperature Pattern Remains Quite Bearish, But Chances Increasing Of A Delayed Return To A Colder Pattern By Mid-January


Thursday, December 27, 2018
Crude Oil Surges Nearly 10% While Natural Gas Recovers From Steep Early-Session Losses As US Markets Rally Across The Board; Year-Over-Year Natural Gas Storage Deficit To Contract 5% In A Single Day Today As Spring-Like Eastern Warmth Crushes Demand; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Sees Largest Daily Gain In Over A Month


Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Hard Times: Oil & Natural Gas Belie Their Fundamentals & Tumble In Monday Holiday Trade As US Markets Routed; Crude Oil Now Steeply Undervalued Based On Fair Pricing Model; Natural Gas Demand To Slump Through The End Of The Week Before Rebounding To Start 2019 As Colder Temperatures Expected To Return, Though Computer Models Still Divergent


Monday, December 24, 2018
Natural Gas Investors Eye Divergent Near-Term Computer Models As Volatility Continues; Crude Oil Likely Nearing A Bottom As Bullish Sentiment Falls To Lowest Level In 28 Months; Gas Demand Likely to Fall This Week As Major Midwest Storm Sends Unseasonably Mild Temperatures Northwards Across the East Before Possible Late-December Cooldown


Thursday, December 20, 2018
Volatile Natural Gas Searches For Direction As Computer Models Suggest Return To Colder Temperatures By The New Year Even As Near-Term Demand Plunges; EIA Forecast To Announce Slightly Bearish -133 BCF Withdrawal In Today's Storage Report; EIA Announces Third Straight Crude Oil Inventory Withdrawal, But Oil Price Driven By Federal Reserve Shenanigans


Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Natural Gas Soars On Possible Early-January Cooldown--But Is That Enough? Crude Oil Plummets To 16-Month Low On Russian Production Record Ahead Of Expected Bearish Inventory Build In Today's EIA Petroleum Status Report; Natural Gas Volatility Leaves Leveraged ETFs In Ruins; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Northeast Warms


Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Natural Gas One-Week Losses Top 22% After Monday's Rout As Mild Temperatures Send The Bulls Running, But The Commodity Is Now Oversold, Undervalued, & Poised For A Bounce After Long-Term Model Trends Colder; Gas Demand To Reach Intraweek High Today As Transient Cooldown Overspreads New England; WTI Oil Drops Under $50/Barrel On Storage Build Fears


Monday, December 17, 2018
Natural Gas Suffers Largest Weekly Rout In Two Years With Further Losses On Deck To Start The Week As a Prolonged Period Of Mild Temperatures Will Suppress Heating Demand; Despite The Sell-Off, An Excessive Number Of Longs Are Still Trapped & Could Fuel Further Downside; Gas Demand To Rise Today, But Will Remain Below-Average


Thursday, December 13, 2018
Natural Gas Sell-Off Continues As Temperatures Warm Nationwide; Crude Oil Erases Gains After EIA Reports Much Smaller-Than-Expected Decline In Inventories; EIA Projected To Announce A Neutral -82 Storage Withdrawal In Today's Report; Gas Demand To Fall For A Fourth Straight Day Today With Single-Digit Daily Draw Expected


Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Natural Gas Prices Come Under Pressure As The Most Sustained Stretch Of Bearish Temperatures In 9 Months Take Aim On The Lower 48; EIA Forecast To Announce Exceptionally Bullish -10.2 MMbbl Crude Oil Inventory Draw In Today's Petroleum Report (But Don't Count Your Chickens Just Yet); Gas Demand To Fall For Third Straight Day Today


Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Natural Gas Rallies As Threat Of Late-December Cooldown Disrupts An Otherwise Bearish Forecast; Crude Oil Tumbles 3% As Investors Focus On Threats To Demand Following EIA Production Cuts; Daily Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal To Fall Below The 5-Year Average Today As Warm-Up Builds Up Steam; Nuclear Outages & Natural Gas Substitution Demand Continue To Drop


Monday, December 10, 2018
The Warm-Up Is Real, The Warm-Up Is Here: Natural Gas Demand To Begin Week-Long Tumble Today As Pattern Shift Brings Milder Temperatures; Domestic Gas Production Tops All-Time High For Third Straight Week; Oil Rallies, But Falters Late, After OPEC & Russia Agree To Production Cuts