Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Friday, January 24, 2020
Natural Gas & Oil Rebuff Attempted Rallies Despite Better-Than-Expected Storage Reports; Natural Gas Production Continues To Slide As Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens Amidst Historically Cheap Prices; Computer Models Hinting At Early February Pattern Shift--But Will This One Go Bust Too? Investors Seem To Think So

Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Thursday, January 23, 2020
Bloodied But Unbowed: Natural Gas Steadies As Near-Term Models Trend Towards Early-February Cooldown While Oil Slides On Global Supply Surplus & Coronavirus Demand Concerns; EIA To Release Dual Oil & Natural Gas Storage Gas Storage Reports This Morning; Demand To Plunge Today As Temperature Rapidly Moderate

Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Humbled: Natural Gas Crashes Under $2.00/MMBTU To Lowest Level Since March 2016 On Balmy Late January Outlook; Looking On The Brightside Amidst The Blood Bath, LNG Soars To Record Highs Despite Forward Risk While Well Completions Continues To Drop; Natural Gas Steeply Undervalued--But When Do We Bounce?; Gas Demand To Begin Slide Today

Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Max Pain: Natural Gas Prices Set To Plunge Under $2.00/MMBTU For The First Time Since 2016 As Temperature Outlook Moderates, Even As Long-Term Undervaluation Soars; Opportunity Abounds For The Aggressive Trader, But Volatility & Further Near-Term Losses May Come First

Thursday, January 16, 2020
Natural Gas Extends Losses To Near 6-Month Low, But Have Investors Overreacted To The Near-Term Warming Trend? Oil Falls Despite Surprise Inventory Drawdown Due To Massive Refined Product Builds; Natural Gas Demand Growth To Accelerate Today As Heartland Cools Ahead Of Major Storm, But Will Remain Below-Normal On Eastern Warmth

Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Mother Nature Sets A Bull Trap: Natural Gas Gives Up Gains As Computer Models Sharply Back Off Upcoming Cold Snap; EIA Expected To Announce Modestly Bearish Petroleum Status Report Today; Exceptionally Bearish Daily Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Expected Today, But Demand Is Finally Beginning A Multi-Day Upswing

Tuesday, January 14, 2020
The Ingredients Are In Place For A Natural Gas Short Squeeze--But Will Mother Nature Show Up?

Thursday, January 9, 2020
Oil Prices Stage Dramatic Reversal After Middle East De-Escalation & Bearish EIA Status Report--But Also Becomes Undervalued Again; Natural Gas Treads Water As Mid-January Arctic Threat Still Uncertain; EIA Projected To Announce Exceptionally Bearish -54 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal In Today's Report

Wednesday, January 8, 2020
Mid-January Temperature Outlook Trends Colder, But Natural Gas Prices Kept In Check By Building Storage Surplus; EIA Expected To Announce Another Bullish Storage Withdrawal Today, But All Eyes On The Middle East In Volatile Trading Day Ahead; Gas Demand To Reach Weekly Peak Today As Short-Lived Shot Of Cold Clips The Northern Tier

Tuesday, January 7, 2020
Chances Of A Mid-January Pattern Shift Favoring Colder Temperatures Increase, But Multiple Uncertainties Keep Natural Gas Prices Suppressed; Oil Prices Highest In 8 Months But Finish Well Off Session Highs As Probability Of A Pullback Increases; Gas Demand To Rebound Today On Quick-Hitting Mid-Atlantic Storm, But Remains Well Below-Normal

Monday, January 6, 2020
Natural Gas Shorts Are Living On Borrowed Time: Sector Is Primed For A Short Squeeze, But Where Is The Trigger? Oil Prices Surge On Geopolitical Unrest & Huge EIA-Reported Inventory Drawdown; Realtime Natural Gas Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average To Reach Triple Digits Today

Friday, January 3, 2020
Natural Gas Selling Continues Unabated As Mother Nature Abandons The Bulls; Oil Prices Set To Spike Today On Middle East Unrest; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal But Exceptionally Bullish Crude Oil Drawdown In Today's Twin Reports; Realtime Natural Gas Storage Surplus To Reach 18-Month High Today As Gas Demand Falls Further

Thursday, January 2, 2020
This Is Why Trading Natural Gas Is Hard: Temperature Outlook Remains Quite Bearish With Near-Term Downside Risk Outweighing Upside Potential, But Magnitude Of Upside Long-Term Far Outweighs Downside; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Unseasonably Mild Temperatures Return To The Lower 48

Tuesday, December 31, 2019
It's A Waiting Game In The Natural Gas Sector As Fundamentals Continue To Improve But Temperature Outlook Remains Bearish; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Temperatures Moderate, But Bearish Draw Still Expected As New Storage Surplus Grows

Monday, December 30, 2019
EIA Reports Second Straight Larger-Than-Expected Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal As Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens Further, But Prices Tumble On Bearish Temperature Outlook; Oil Inches Higher On Inventory Withdrawal As Refinery Demand Finally Rises; Natural Gas Demand To Rebound This Week, But Will Remain Much Below-Average

Friday, December 27, 2019
Natural Gas Rallies Sharply As The Bears Run Out Of Steam (For Now) But Near-Term Gains May Be Tough To Hold; Doubleheader For the EIA: Bullish Natural Gas & Crude Oil Inventory Drawdowns Expected Today In Delayed Storage Reports; Natural Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today, But Bearish Withdrawal Expected For The Week

Thursday, December 26, 2019
Natural Gas Sells Off To A 4-Month Low As January Temperature Outlook Remains Mild, But Now Oversold & Undervalued, The Commodity Is Due For A Bounce; Gas Demand To Bottom For The Remainder Of 2019 Today With Bearish -5 BCF/Day Storage Withdrawal Expected

Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Natural Gas Plummets Nearly 5% As The Sector Succumbs To Another Case Of The Mondays After Temperature Outlook Warms Over The Weekend; The Sell-Off Was Warranted, But The Prices Themselves Are Not; Gas Demand To Hold Much Below-Average Today As Unseasonable Warmth Dominates Central US

Monday, December 23, 2019
Natural Gas Set For Pre-Holiday Weakness After Weekend Models Trend Warmer With Bearish Storage Withdrawals Likely For The Remainder Of 2019; Oil Pulls Back As Rig Count Jumps; Unseasonable Nationwide Warmth To Drive Bearish -8 BCF/day Daily Storage Withdrawal Today

Friday, December 20, 2019
Natural Gas Recovers From Early-Session Losses After The EIA Announces Much Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Withdrawal; Fundamental Imbalance Continue To Improve As Production Slumps, LNG Sets Records, & Powerplants Switch To Natural Gas, But Near-Term Bearish Temperature Outlook Gives The Bears What They Need

Thursday, December 19, 2019
Oil Rises After Surprise EIA-Reported Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown While Natural Gas Pulls Back As Investors Regard Next Week's Warm-Up; EIA Expected To Announce Slightly Bearish Natural Gas Withdrawal In Today's Report; Gas Demand To Dip From Wednesday's Peak, But Huge Draw Still Expected As Cold Envelops Northeast

Wednesday, December 18, 2019
Natural Gas Pulls Back As Warm-Up Looms, Though 2020 Still Looks To Get Off To Cold Start; Oil Climbs To Fresh 3-Month High--But It May Not Stay There With EIA Expected To Release Exceptionally Bearish Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Reach Weekly High Today As Year-Over-Year Crashes BackUnder +600 BCF

Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Natural Gas Snaps Monday Losing Streak With 2% Rally As Investors Weigh Late December Warmth Against Increasing Signal Of A Cold Start To 2020; Discounted Oil & Natural Gas Prices Continue To Drive Down Drilling Productivity & Well Count, Setting Up A Long-Term Bull Market; Gas Demand To Rise For Third Straight Day Today As Storage Surplus Flips Back To A Deficit...Again

Monday, December 16, 2019
Natural Gas May Pull Back To Start The Week, But Upside Potential Outweighs Downside Risk Amidst Fundamental Undervaluation, Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance, & Overcrowded Short Trade; Gas Demand Ramps Up Today As Arctic Air Gears Up For Southeastward Push

Friday, December 13, 2019
Natural Gas Soars After Near-Term Temperature Outlook Cools, Despite Lackluster EIA Storage Report; Arctic Air To Drive Gas Demand Higher Next Week, But Near-Term Warming Trend & Threat Of January Warmth Could Keep Rally In Check; Domestic Production Falls Again As Supply/Demand Imbalance Continues To Tighten; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today With Bearish Weekly Draw Expected

Thursday, December 12, 2019
Deja Vu, But Without The Squeeze: Another Growing Divergence In The Computer Models Doesn't Trigger Rally...Yet; Oil Drops, But Finishes Off The Lows, After EIA Reports Large Refined Product Inventory Builds; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish -77 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Fall As Temperatures Recover Ahead Of Next Arctic Shot

Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Natural Gas Rebounds As Arctic Air Likely To Boost Demand Next Week; Oil Edges Higher, Though EIA Expected To Announce Another Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build This Morning; Gas Demand To Surge To Weekly High Today As Arctic Front Clears The East Coast; 5-Year Average Storage Level Likely To Be A Line In The Sand Through Year's-End

Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Natural Gas Prices Slump Again, But Finish Well Off The Lows As Fundamental Undervaluation Grows & Computer Models Offer A Glimmer Of Hope--But Is It Enough To Curtail Weather-Fueled Panic Selling? Oils Recovers As Investors Turn Focus To Storage; Natural Gas Demand To Surge Today As Arctic Chill Grips The Plains--But Warm East Keeps Gains In Check

Monday, December 9, 2019
Lower Prices Are The Cure For Lower Prices But First, This Is Going To Hurt; Natural Gas Set To Open Sharply Lower After Decisive Victory For The ECMWF Over The GFS; Natural Gas Storage Deficit To Flip To A Surplus Today As Demand Slumps, But It Will Be Short-Lived As Arctic Air Moves In; Growing Undervaluation & Overcrowded Short Trade Sets Up A Long-Term Opportunity For The Risk-Tolerant Trader

Friday, December 6, 2019
Arctic Air Arrives Early Next Week, But Unusually Divergent Computer Models Leave Investors Uncertain Despite Fundamental Undervaluation; EIA Reports Bearish Inventory Withdrawal, But Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens On Record Exports & Weak Canadian Imports; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today On Glancing Arctic Air Across The North

Thursday, December 5, 2019
Oil Prices Surge After EIA Reports First Inventory Withdrawal Since October While Natural Gas Pulls Back After Tuesday's Spike; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today--But Does Anybody Care? Arctic Air Still Likely Next Week But Uncertainty Exists As Forecast Evolves

Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Natural Gas Spikes On Prospect For Mid-December Arctic Outbreak, But Divergent Models Promise Volatility Both Up And Down In The Days Ahead; EIA Expected To Announce First Crude Oil Inventory Withdrawal In Six Weeks In Today's Status Report, But Investors More Focused On OPEC Meeting; Gas Demand Retreats Back To The 5-Year Average Today As Temperatures Warm

Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Undervalued Natural Gas Bounces As Models Hint At Quick-Hitting Arctic Outbreak Next Week While Oil Catches A Bid On OPEC Meeting Optimism; This Will Not End Well: Natural Gas Short Positions Surge 530% From 2018 As Bears Exert Stranglehold On Sector, But Leave Themselves Exposed To A Future Short Squeeze; Gas Demand To Fall Today, But Bullish Draw Still Expected On Eastern Chill