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Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Thursday, November 21, 2019
Oil Prices Soar After EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Inventory Build While Natural Gas Rallies As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Cools Further; EIA Projected To Announce Exceptionally Bullish (Though Long Since Priced In) -90 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Daily Gas Demand To Fall Ahead Of Cold Front Today With Small Injection Expected



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Oil & Natural Gas Both Sell-Off In Commodities Rout; Natural Gas Nears My Downside Price Target & Looks To Bounce As Near-Term Models Trend Colder, But Without A Long-Term Catalyst, Expect Rallies To Be Limited; EIA Expected To Report Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build Today; Natural Gas Inventories To Hold Steady Today As Unseasonably Mild Heartland Temperatures Suppress Demand


Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Another Case Of The Mondays: Natural Gas Falls Sharply To Open Second Straight Week As Near-Term Outlook Warms; Further Downside Potential Remains Should December Outlook Verify; Oil & Natural Gas Producers Drawing Aggressively On Drilled-But-Uncompleted Wells To Maintain Output--A Long-Term Bullish Signal; Gas Demand To Fall For A Third Straight Day With Bearish Storage Injection Likely Today


Monday, November 18, 2019
Natural Gas Demand To Fall Sharply This Week As Temperatures Moderate With First Bearish Weekly Withdrawal In A Month Expected; Late November Temperature Outlook Still Inconsistent, But Favors A Seasonally Cool Set-Up--Not Good Enough For The Bulls; Oil Rises On US-China Trade Deal Prospects & Slumping Rig Count--And Is Still Undervalued Despite Rising Inventories


Friday, November 15, 2019
Let's Talk Data: EIA Reports Unexpected, Small Natural Gas & Crude Oil Inventory Builds--What Does It Mean For Prices? Temperature-Independent Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalance Loosens To A 52-Week Low As Canadian Imports Rally, Weighing Further On Sentiment; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today As East Coast Returns To Seasonal Temperatures


Thursday, November 14, 2019
Natural Gas Scrambles To Late-Session Rally After Medium-Range Outlook Trends Back Colder; EIA To Pitch A Double Header Today: Tiny, But Bullish Storage Withdrawals Expected For Both Oil & Natural Gas While Refined Product Stocks Gain; Gas Demand To Plunge Today As Record-Breaking Cold Eases, But Bullish Daily Draw Still Expected


Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Record-Setting Arctic Outbreak To Reach Its Peak Today With Historic -29 BCF/day Daily Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Expected; Temperature Outlook Cools For Key 10-14 Day Period--But Is It Enough? Oil Trades Laterally As Investors Await New Catalyst After Geopolitical News Machine Quiets (For Now)


Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Natural Gas Sees Largest Sell-Off Since January As Prolonged Period Of Warmth Looks Increasingly Likely After The Current Arctic Blast; Natural Gas May Bounce, But The Commodity Is Still Oversupplied & Overvalued; In the Meantime, Gas Demand To Soar Today As Historic Cold Grips the Lower 48


Monday, November 11, 2019
Sell The News: Arctic Air Arrives, But Overvalued Natural Gas Set For A Sharp Pullback Today As Temperatures To Begin Sustained Warming Trend By Late Week; Short Covering Eases The Overcrowded Bear Trade, Reducing The Chance Of Another Short Squeeze...For Now; Gas Demand To Rebound Today Before Soaring On Tuesday & Wednesday


Friday, November 8, 2019
EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Natural Gas Storage Injection, But Prices Drop As Temperature Outlook Moderates; Loosening Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Imbalance Will Weigh On The Bulls When The Pattern Warms; But Gas Demand To Jump Today As Arctic Air Advances While Even Colder Readings Await Next Week


Thursday, November 7, 2019
And Here We Go: Natural Gas Withdrawal Season Begins As Arctic Air Arrives; Oil Falls After Inexplicably Slumping Exports Drive Larger-Than-Anticipated Rise In Inventories; Chesapeake Energy Caught In A Self-Inflicted Death Spiral; EIA Projected To Announce First Bullish Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Since July In Today's Report


Wednesday, November 6, 2019
Natural Gas Inventories To Peak For The Season Today Near 3748 BCF As Arctic Air Gathers Strength Across The Northern Plains; EIA Expected To Announce A Slightly Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today's Report--And Don't Be Surprised If It's Smaller Than That; The Natural Gas Short Squeeze Party Will Continue Until the Bulls Run Out Of Steam And Then, Watch Out Below


Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Near-Term Bullish, Long-Term Bearish: What Does It Mean For The Natural Gas Trader? Bearish Daily Natural Gas Storage Injection Expected Today But End-Of-Season Peak Likely In The Next 48 Hours Before Arctic Air Floods South; US Gas Production Projected To Have Reached A New All-Time High Over The Weekend--It Doesn't Matter Now, But It Will


Monday, November 4, 2019
Natural Gas Short Squeeze Set To Continue As Near-Term Models Trend Colder & Large Bearish Money Manager Surplus Persists--But Don't Get Sucked Into The Irrational Exuberance; Oil Still Discounted Despite Friday Rally As Inventories Poised To Drop; Daily Natural Gas Storage Injection Expected Today, But First Weekly Draw Of The Season Likely This Week


Thursday, October 31, 2019
Oil Falls After The EIA Announces Surprise Inventory Build--But The Damage Was (And Should Be) Limited; Natural Gas Short Squeeze Continues Unabated, But Rally Is Overly Dependent On Mother Nature; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +90 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today's Report; Gas Demand To Rise For A Fourth Straight Day As Snow Falls In Chicago


Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Squeeze, Baby, Squeeze: Natural Gas Spikes For A Second Day As Complacent Shorts Finally Pay The Price; Celsius Energy Doesn't Play The Hero As Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Nears New 2019 High--And Neither Should You; EIA Expected To Announce Second Straight Crude Oil Inventory Draw Today, But WTI Flounders; Gas Demand To Rise Again Today


Monday, October 28, 2019
Natural Gas Set To Rally As Temperature Outlook Trends Colder-For-Long & Shorts Push Their Luck--But Is This The Beginning Of A Sustained Move Higher Or Just Another Entrypoint For The Bears? Gas Demand To Begin Ramping Up Today As Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures Build Across The Heartland; Oil Looks Ready To Run


Friday, October 25, 2019
Natural Gas Continues Oversold Bounce After The EIA Announces Slightly Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection; Domestic Production Sets New Record High While Total Supply Could Reach 100 BCF/Day Before The End Of 2019; Today's Daily Injection To Fall To 5-Year Average As Cold Air Settles South, But Record-Setting Bearish Build Still Expected For The Week


Thursday, October 24, 2019
Oil Rises Sharply After The EIA Reports Surprise Inventory Draw And Imports Fall To 23-Year Low; Spot Natural Gas Rises, But Once Again ETF-Holders Miss Out; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +88 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection But Don't Discount A Rally If Build Comes In Smaller-Than-Expected; Gas Demand To Jump Today On Central US Cooldown As Snow Falls In West Texas


Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Natural Gas Bounces--Just Not For ETF Traders; EIA Expected To Announce Another Bearish Inventory Build Today--But Don't Be Surprised If It Is Smaller Than Expected; Gas Demand To Rise For A Second Straight Day, But Daily Storage Injection Will Remain Well Above-Average


Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Natural Gas Sell-Off Resumes As November Temperature Outlook Moderates; Sentiment & Fundamentals Still Bearish, But Shorting Natural Gas Here Is Becoming An Increasingly Risky Endeavor; Gas Demand To Rebound Today As Heartland Cools, But Injections Remain Well Above-Average


Monday, October 21, 2019
Winter Is Coming And The Shorts Have Overextended Themselves--So Why Is Natural Gas Not Rallying? Oil Likely To Trade Laterally As Demand Concerns To Be Countered By A Resumption Of Inventory Drawdowns; Gas Demand To Bottom Today With Ugly +16 BCF Injection With Steady Rebound Expected Through Week's End As Colder Air Filters South