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Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Thursday, October 17, 2019
Natural Gas Rally Fails As Profit-Takers Step In While Oil Snaps Losing Streak With Lukewarm Bounce; A Busy Day For The EIA: Agency Expected To Announce Bearish Oil And Natural Gas Inventory Builds In Twin Storage Reports Today



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Natural Gas Extends Winning Streak As Near-Term Computer Models Turn Down The Thermostat Further For Late October & Early November; EIA Announces Largest Decline Yet For Drilled But Uncompleted Wells--What Does It Mean For Oil & Natural Gas Right Now And Next Year? Gas Demand To Jump Today As Quick-Hitting Chill Expands Across Heartland


Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Natural Gas Vaults Higher As Near- And Long-Term Temperature Outlooks Trend Colder; But Enjoy The Ride Now, Bulls, Since The Fundamentals Still Favor The Short Sellers Down The Road; Crude Oil Erases Friday's Gains As Fickle Investors Can't Decide On Trade Deal Prospects; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today As Texas Warms & Northern Plains Cool


Monday, October 14, 2019
Natural Gas Likely To Rally This Week On Potential Cold Snap, But Don't Get Carried Away Here--The Bears Want You To Make That Mistake; Natural Gas Investor Bullish Holdings Fall To Historic Low; Crude Oil Rises On US-China Trade Detente & Middle Eastern Tensions Even As Rig Count Rises


t Thursday, October 10, 2019
Oil Can't Hold Onto Gains After Mixed EIA Report While Natural Gas Continues To Bleed; Net Oil Imports Fall To An 8-Month Low But Refinery Demand Hits 2019 Low To Counter; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +102 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection Today As Traders Desperately Search For A Catalyst


Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Natural Gas ETF Holders Facing A Brutal Rollover As Seasonal Contango Widens On Pullback; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build But Very Bullish Refined Product Drawdowns In Today's Status Report; Natural Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today, But Realtime Inventories Will Still Top 3500 BCF As Year-Over-Year Surplus Hits +500 BCF


Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Natural Gas Pulls Back As Optimism Regarding Near-Term Arctic Insurgency Fades While Oil Can't Hold Onto Its Gains; Shoulder Season Doldrums To Drive Largest Daily Natural Gas Storage Injection Since May Today As New Storage Surplus Nearly Doubles; This Is Why Oil Is A Better Investment Than Natural Gas--For Now


Monday, October 7, 2019
Natural Gas Catches A Short Squeeze On Prospect For Early-Season Arctic Outbreak--But Don't Expect This Rally To Last; Oil & Natural Gas Long Positions Both See Significant Efflux Of Bullish Holdings; Natural Gas Demand To Dip Today As New Storage Surplus Grows


Friday, October 4, 2019
Weather Trumps Storage: Natural Gas Snaps Record Losing Streak In Unexpected Fashion; Domestic Production Reaches Another All-Time High As Permian Floodgates Open; Natural Gas Undervalued Based On Current Inventories, But Bearish Long-Term Temperature Outlook And Overvaluation Likely To Limit Significant Rally--For Now


Thursday, October 3, 2019
Oil Falls To Near 2-Month Lows After EIA Reports Surprise Crude Inventory Build--But Don't Wave The Wide Flag Just Yet; Natural Gas Extends Record-Setting Losing Streak; EIA Expected To Announce Second Straight Triple-Digit Storage Injection Today; Are Sellers Exhausted Yet?


Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Bears Hit Natural Gas On Two Fronts As Losing Streak Sets All-Time Record; After Two Weeks Of Small Builds, EIA Expected To Announce Very Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Draw Today; Remarkable Eastern Heatwave And Northern Plains Arctic Outbreak To Both Climax Today


Tuesday, October 1, 2019
Bear Season: Natural Gas Extends Losing Streak To 10 Straight (But Finishes Up For September!) On Unseasonably Mild October Outlook While Crude Oil Sells Off On Saudi Output Recovery; End-Of-Season Natural Gas Storage Projections Continue To Rise; Natural Gas Cheap, But Respect The Falling Knife


Monday, September 30, 2019
Desperate Natural Gas Bulls Increasingly Dependent On Bailout From Mother Nature As Production Reaches New Highs & Powerburn Sees A Seasonal Fade; Natural Gas Short Trade Increasingly Overcrowded As Buyers Flee & Bears Reload, But Don't Bet On A Short Squeeze Just Yet; Record Southern Heat & Northern Chill To Drive Near-Average Storage Injection Today


Friday, September 27, 2019
Natural Gas Tumbles After The EIA Announces Another Larger-Than-Expected Storage Injection As Production Hits A New All-Time High & The Supply/Demand Imbalance Loosens; Projected Realtime Natural Gas Inventories Set To Top 3300 BCF Today For The First Time Since December 2017; Oil Falls But Recovers Most Of Its Early-Session Losses


Wednesday, September 25, 2019
On Monday, natural gas fell sharply at the open, only to recover the majority of its losses. On Tuesday, the opposite happened. Natural gas rose 2% in early-morning electronic trading to near $2.60/barrel/MMBTU as investors cheered the potential for an early-October cold snap.


Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Natural Gas Finds Support As Early-October Cooldown Looks Increasingly Likely, Though The Month Still Looks Warmer-Than-Normal As A Whole; Oil Investors Struggle To Price In Risk Premium After Saudi Attacks (Spoiler Alert: They're Not Doing Enough); Natural Gas Inventories Within A Day Of Topping 2018's EOS Peak


Monday, September 23, 2019
Natural Gas Rally Finally Stopped While Oil Holds Onto Reduced Gains After Early-Week Fireworks; Natural Gas Bullish Sentiment Improves, But Lack Of Buying A Cause For Concern; Gas Inventories Top 3200 BCF Over The Weekend & Shoot Past Last Year's Peak Later This Week


Friday, September 20, 2019
Natural Gas Finally Sells Off After EIA Announces Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection While Lower Refinery Demand Dooms Oil Rally (For One Day, Anyways); LNG Demand Slumps As Tropical Storm Imelda Shutters Sabine Pass Shipping Channel; Another Bearish Natural Gas Storage Injection Expected This Week Despite Southern Heat; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Reaches New 2019 High


Thursday, September 19, 2019
Oil Pulls Back Again After The EIA Announces First Inventory Build In A Month & Saudi Output Rebounds; EIA Projected To Announce Neutral Natural Gas Inventory Build In Today's Report; Oil Worth A Nibble As Undervaluation Rises While Natural Gas Remains Long-Term Overvalued After Short Squeeze


Monday, September 16, 2019
Oil Prices Set To Surge After Attacks On Saudi Infrastructure; Natural Gas Squeeze Continues As Money Manager Short Positions See Largest Weekly Drop In Over Four Years And Rig Count Slumps; Natural Gas Becomes Overvalued As Prices Rise To Within 5% Of Year-Ago Levels Despite Large Surplus; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Late-Summer Heat Overspreads Central US


Friday, September 13, 2019
Natural Gas Rallies After EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection Even As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Trends Less Favorable; Oil Falters Again As Global Supply & Demand Worries Outweigh Tightening Domestic Inventories; Natural Gas Demand To Dip Today As Much Cooler Temperatures Overspread The Northeast


Thursday, September 12, 2019
Oil Falls On Global Demand Fears & Supply Speculation Despite Exceptionally Bullish EIA-Reported Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown; Oil Storage Expected To Fall Below 375 MMbbls By Years-End, Supporting a $65/Barrel Fair Price; EIA Expected To Announce A Slightly Bearish +82 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection Today As Rally Starts To Run Out Of Steam


Friday, September 6, 2019
Inexplicable: Natural Gas Rallies Despite Disappointing EIA-Reported Storage Injection While Oil Fades After -4.8 MMbbl Draw Crushes Expectations; Oil Remains A Strong Buy At These Levels While Natural Gas Looks To Pullback Even As September Outlook Looks Unseasonably Warm; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Hurricane Dorian Brushes Mid-Atlantic & Northeast


Thursday, September 5, 2019
Natural Gas Surges To 1-Month High On Hot September Temperature Outlook While Crude Oil Jumps 4% On Economic Optimism; Natural Gas Approaches Fair Value While Oil Remains Steeply Undervalued; Busy EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bearish Natural Gas Storage Injection But Slightly Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today's Storage Reports


Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Natural Gas Finds Support As September Temperature Outlook Trends Warmer--But Is The Rally Sustainable? Crude Oil Undervalued But Under Pressure As Global Recession Fears Persist; Hurricane Dorian Looks To Avoid Direct Strike On Florida, But Some Natural Gas Demand Suppression Still Likely As The Storm Grazes The Carolinas


Friday, August 30, 2019
Natural Gas Rises To A 5-Week High After The EIA Reports A Neutral +60 BCF Storage Injection As Volatility Picks Back Up; Temperature-Adjusted Supply/Demand Imbalance Loosens Amidst Rising Production Even As LNG Demand Reaches Record A High; Dangerous Hurricane Dorian Expected To Be Major Early-Week Threat & Natural Gas Demand Suppressant


Thursday, August 29, 2019
Investors Sell-The-News After EIA Reports Massive -10 MMbbl Inventory Drawdown As Net Imports Sink To Summer Lows; EIA projected To Announce Neutral +59 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection Today--But Traders Are Expecting Another Beat; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Autumn Comes To The Central US While The Coasts Stay Warm


Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Natural Gas Dips After Sharp Rally While Oil Rises On OPEC Over-Compliance & Global Supply Concerns; EIA Expected To Announce Massive Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today's Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady As Fall-Like Temperatures Persist Across the Heartland


Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Natural Gas Jumps Nearly 4% In Mini Short Squeeze As Temperature Outlook Trends Warmer, But Expect The Bears To Launch Another Sortie Soon; Crude Oil Gives Up Gains As Mixed G7 Comments Lead To Confusion; Tropical Storm Dorian Moves Into The Caribbean & Sets Its Eye On Florida (Maybe)


Monday, August 26, 2019
Natural Gas Due For A Bounce As Temperature Outlook Trends Warmer Over The Weekend & LNG Exports Hold At All-Time Highs, But It May Be Short-Lived; Oil Swept Up In Global Market Sell-Off, But Remains Undervalued; Gas Demand To Steadily Rise This Week, But Daily Injections Will Remain Bearish As Unseasonably Cool Temperatures Dominate The Heartland