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Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Thursday, April 25, 2019
Crude Oil Dips After Bearish Inventory Build As Imports Rebound While Natural Gas Holds Onto Small Gains As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Cools; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +90 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today's Report



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Natural Gas Bounces Off 3-Year Lows On Cooling Near-Term Temperature Outlook While Oil Soars To New Highs On Expiration Of Iranian Import Waivers; Gas Demand To Remain Well Below-Average Today As Triple Digit Weekly Build Remains On Track; Growth In LNG Demand Countered By Lackluster Nuclear Maintenance Season


Monday, April 22, 2019
Natural Gas Falls To 3-Year Low, But Is Ready For A Deadcat Bounce; Gas Demand To Fall To 2019-Low Today As Seasonal Temperatures Dominate The Lower 48; Largest Weekly Injection Since 2015 Expected This Week Amidst Entrenched Bearish Temperature Pattern & Loosening Supply/Demand Imbalance


Thursday, April 18, 2019
Natural Gas Falls To Near 3-Year Low As Loose Market & Bearish Weather Outlook Leaves Bears Unchecked; Crude Oil Dips Despite Bullish Inventory Drawdown As Refinery Demand Still Lags (For Now); EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +89 BCF Natural Gas Inventory Build In Today's Storage Report


Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Death By A Thousand Paper Cuts: Small But Consistent Daily Drops Continue To Punish Natural Gas Bulls In The Absence Of A Positive Catalyst; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today's Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall To Fresh 2019-Low Today As Projected Realtime Inventories Top 1300 BCF


Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Natural Gas Continues To Feel The Impact Of Bearish Temperature Outlook As Prices Fall Under $2.60/MMBTU; Gas Demand To Fall Today With Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Contracting Under -400 BCF; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Eclipses New 2019 High


Monday, April 15, 2019
Natural Gas Facing Stiff Headwinds As Late April & Early May Outlook Trends Seasonal Amidst Loose Supply/Demand Imbalance; Natural Gas Bulls Steadily Liquidating Their Holdings While Oil Bulls Take Control; Gas Demand To Fall This Week With Year-Over-Year Deficit Flipping To A Surplus By Wednesday


Friday, April 12, 2019
Natural Gas Falls As Investors Value Loosening Market & Lackluster Temperature Outlook Over Smaller-Than-Expected EIA-Reported Storage Injection; Sixth Straight Bearish Inventory Build Expected Next Week As Inventories Flip To A Year-Over-Year Surplus; Despite 2-Week Low Prices, Path Of Least Resistance Remains Lower


Thursday, April 11, 2019
Oil Prices Rise To New 5-Month High Despite Second Straight Bearish Crude Build Thanks To Large Drawdown In Gasoline Inventories; Natural Gas Remains Tightly Rangebound Ahead Of Fourth Straight Bearish EIA Storage Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Early-Season Cooling Demand Fades But Powerful Plains Storm Drives Heating Demand Higher & LNG Feedgas Demand Recovers


Tuesday, April 9, 2019
Natural Gas Edges Higher On Cooler Outlook While WTI Oil Rises To New High On Libyan Conflict; LNG Export Demand Continues To Suffer As Sabine Pass Maintenance Drags On; Gas Demand To Rise Today, But Year-Over-Year Storage Deficit Still Projected To Fall Under -100 BCF; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Rises To New 2019 High


Monday, April 8, 2019
Natural Gas Hangs On For Dear Life But Downside Risk Factors Beginning To Overwhelm Upside Catalysts Even As Major Winter Storm Tries To Rescue Demand This Week; Crude Oil Breaks Out To New Highs But Rig Count Finally Jumps; Gas Demand To Fall To 2019 Low Today As Spring-Like Warmth Dominates Lower 48


Friday, April 5, 2019
Natural Gas Falls To A 2-Week Low After EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected Storage Injection While Brent Oil (Briefly) Tops $70/Barrel; Natural Gas Supply/Demand Balance Loosens As Record Production & Soft LNG Demand Weigh; Daily Storage Injections Set To Soar This Weekend As Unseasonable Warmth Gets Pumped Northwards


Thursday, April 4, 2019
Oil Falls, But Cuts Losses After Bearish & Larger Than Expected +7.2 MMbbl Inventory Build; Natural Gas Continues Tepid Trading As Investors Weigh Record Production & Seasonality Against Colder Outlook, But Upside Potential Outweighs Downside Risk; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +17 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today's Report


Wednesday, April 3, 2019
Natural Gas Falls Despite Cooling April Temperature Forecast While Oil Tops New 5-Month High As Brent Approaches $70/Barrel; EIA Forecast To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build But Bullish Refined Product Draws In Today's Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply For A Second Straight Day As East Coast Temperatures Quickly Warm


Monday, April 1, 2019
Natural Gas Retreats As Prolonged Period Of Mild Temperatures To Erase Year-Over-Year Storage Deficit By Mid-April; Natural Gas Bulls Haven't Fled The Sector Yet; Oil Sees Largest Quarterly Gain In A Decade, But Rig Count Continues To Fall; Final Natural Gas Daily Storage Withdrawal Of The Heating Season Expected Today As Fleeting Unseasonable Chill Dominates East


Friday, March 29, 2019
Long-Term Temperature Uncertainty Keeps Natural Gas Prices Tightly Rangebound While Oil Recovers After Donald Trump Tweet; Year-Over-Year Temperature-Adjusted Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens, But It Won't Matter (For Now) If April Is Mild; Quick Shot Of Unseasonable Cold Likely Next Week, But It Won't Last


Thursday, March 28, 2019
Crude Oil Pulls Back After The EIA Announces Larger-Than-Expected--But Still Bullish--Inventory Build; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +34 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal In Today's Report, The Last Of The Season; Largest Daily Storage Injection Of 2019 Expected Today As Mild Temperatures Overspread Central & Eastern US


Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Natural Gas Dips In Low-Volatility Environment While Oil Rebounds On Tightening Supply/Demand Balance; EIA Forecast To Announce A Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today's Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Warmth Overspreads The Central US; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Hits New 2019 High


Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Natural Gas Recovers From Early-Session Losses--But Could Still Face Downward Pressure As April Continues To Look Mild; Oil Pulls Back Amidst Concerns Of Global Slowdown, But Remains Undervalued; Natural Gas Inventories Projected To Bottom Today At The 7th Lowest All-Time, But More Than 100 BCF Higher Than February Projections


Monday, March 25, 2019
Natural Gas Falls To 1-Month Lows As Late March & April Outlook Trends Warmer While Oil Succumbs To Equities Sell-Off; Slumping LNG Feedgas Joins Forces With Warming Temperatures To Flip Upcoming Week From A Storage Withdrawal To The First Projected Injection Of 2019


Friday, March 22, 2019
Natural Gas Flat After Neutral EIA Storage Report; Domestic Gas Production Can't Break Above 88 BCF/Day, Tightening The Supply/Demand Imbalance; Final Storage Withdrawal Of The 2019 Heating Season Now Expected Next Week As Inventories Stagger Below 1100 BCF; Near-Term Natural Gas Bearishness To Set Up Long-Term Bullishness


Thursday, March 21, 2019
Oil Tops $60/Barrel After Exceptional -9.6 MMbbl EIA-Reported Inventory Drawdown While Natural Gas Retreats On Warming Late-March Outlook; EIA Forecast To Announce Slightly Bearish Gas Withdrawal In Today's Storage Report In Early Glimpse At Shoulder Season Fundamentals; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Hits New 2019 High


Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Natural Gas Jumps 2% After Late March Outlook Trends Colder, But Upside Likely Limited As Mild April To Cut Into Storage Deficit; Crude Oil Reaches New 5-Month High As OPEC Likely To Table Production Discussion Until June; Gas Demand To Fall For A Second Straight Day Today, But Will Hold Above-Average


Monday, March 18, 2019
Natural Gas Near-Term Weakness On Warming Temperatures Could Set-Up Good Long Entrypoint Under $2.75/MMBTU; Realtime Natural Gas Inventories To Fall Below 1100 BCF Tonight For The First Time Since May 2014; Bullish Early-Week Natural Gas Demand To Fade By Late-Week In What Could Be The Final Storage Withdrawal Of The Season


Friday, March 15, 2019
Natural Gas Holds Onto Gains As EIA Reports Record-Setting Storage Withdrawal & Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens; Significant Long-Term Computer Model Divergence Creates Uncertain Future For Natural Gas, But Downside Risk Begins To Outweigh Upside Potential As April Looks Mild; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Winter's Last Gasp Overspreads The Central US


Thursday, March 14, 2019
Crude Oil Reaches 4-Month High After EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Drawdown; Natural Gas Inches Higher, But Gains To Be Curtailed As Balmy Late March & April Loom; EIA Projected To Announce Record-Setting -208 BCF Natural Gas Inventory Withdrawal--But It's All Priced In; First Daily Storage Injection Of 2019 Projected Today


Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Natural Gas Falls More Than 3% To Open The Week As Powerful Storm System To Drive First Daily Injection Of The Year On Thursday & Late March Outlook Trends Warmer; Crude Oil Bounces On Saudi Move To Cut Exports Further; Nuclear Reactor Outages Soar As Maintenance Season Kicks Into Gear, Driving Substitution Demand Higher


Monday, March 11, 2019
Near-Term Bearish on Natural Gas As Late-March Temperatures Trend Milder But Long-Term Bullish As Supply/Demand Balance Tightens Amidst Low Season-Ending Inventories; EIA Projected To Announce (Long-Anticipated) Record March Storage Withdrawal This Week; Demand Losses To Temporarily Slow Today As Winter Holds Tough Across The Heartland


Friday, March 8, 2019
Natural Gas Rallies After EIA Announces Larger-Than-Expected -149 BCF Storage Withdrawal; Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Balance Continues To Tighten As Production Growth Flattens & Prices Remain Discounted; Seasonality Argues For Lower Prices Temperatures Once Temperatures Warm--But Is This Time Different?


Thursday, March 7, 2019
Natural Gas Succumbs To Profit-Taking Ahead Of Today's Expected Third Straight Bullish EIA Storage Report; Crude Oil Ends Lower, But Recovers From Steep Early-Session Losses After Large Gasoline Draw Counters Crude Build; Realtime Natural Gas Inventories To Fall Under 1200 BCF Today For Only The Ninth Time On Record


Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Natural Gas Reaches 5-Week High & Nears My Upside Price Target As March Outlook Trends Colder Driving EOS Projection To A New Low; EIA Forecast To Announce Bearish Inventory Build In Today's Petroleum Status Report--But Don't Overreact Yet; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Reaches New 2019 High & Remains On Track For +50% Year


Tuesday, March 5, 2019
Natural Gas Volatility Slumps As Trading Range Narrows On Seasonal Complacency Despite Multi-Year Low Inventories; Undervalued Oil Gets Boost From US-China Optimism But Finishes Off Its Highs; Realtime Natural Gas Inventories Projected To Fall Below 2018 End-Of-Season Nadir Today As Bitterly Cold Temperatures Dominate The Lower 48