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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Rallies To Hit 6-Week High On Hot July Temperature Outlook & Abandonment Of Appalachian Pipeline; Path Of Least Resistance Still Higher Despite Production Rebound & 11-Month Low LNG Exports; Gas Demand To Dip Today on Deep South Cooldown & LNG Volumes To Freeport Falling To Zero

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Tuesday, July 7, 2020
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


On the heals of its best week since November of last year, natural gas surged out of the gates yesterday, jumping 10 cents or 5.5% to settle at $1.83/MMBTU, the highest close since May 19. The rally was driven by two primary catalysts. First, the near-term temperature outlook continues to look very favorable, both for the next two weeks and beyond. Even with LNG exports holding under 3.3 BCF/day--down over 6 BCF/day from last April’s highs—and production temporarily rising back above 90 BCF/day, I am still projecting that strong powerburn will drive consistently bullish daily natural gas storage withdrawals. As a result, I project that the storage surplus versus the 5-year average could fall from what I expect to be a long-term peak of +466 BCF at the EIA’s last official Storage Report to near +400 BCF by the end of July. This contraction dramatically reduces to chances that inventories even approach capacity come November, a centerpiece of the bearish...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, July 2, 2020
Natural Gas Sells Off On Slump In LNG Exports To New 2020 Lows—But Look For The Commodity To Bounce Back On Prolonged July Warmth; Oil Holds Onto Gains After EIA Reports Largest Withdrawal Of 2020, Though Demand Outlook Still Remains A Concern; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bearish +72 BCF Natural Gas Inventory Build Today, But Storage Surplus Has Likely Peaked As Heat Builds


Wednesday, July 1, 2020
Natural Gas Extends Gains On Building July Heat While Oil Pulls Back As Investors Eye Surging COVID Cases; EIA Expected To Announce Largest Storage Withdrawal of 2020 Today On Rebounding Exports; Gas Demand To Hold Steady As Heat Builds Across The South But LNG Export Demand Tumbles To New 2020 Low


Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Natural Gas Explodes Off 25-Year Lows In 2nd Largest June Rally As July Temperature Outlook Trends Hotter While Oil Shrugs Off Early Losses To Finish Higher; Slightly Bullish Daily Storage Injection Expected Today On Southern Plains & Southeast Heat; LNG Export Demand Fades But Still On Track For Second Straight Weekly Gain


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Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

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Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

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Crude Oil Storage

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