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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Gas Prices Retreat To A Two-Week Low As Cooling Season Is Poised To Come To An End And As Production Remains Strong; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown & Natural Gas Storage Injection In Twin Status & Storage Reports Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Temperatures Cool Across The Central Plains & Ohio Valley
Thursday, September 10, 2026
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Natural gas prices retreated for a second straight session on Wednesday as the approaching end of the Summer Cooling Season as well as higher production likely weighed on sentiment. The front-month October 2026 contract fell by 9 cents or 3.2% to settle at $2.82/MMBTU. It was the lowest close for the front-month since August 25. Among ETFs, 1x UNG shed -3.5% while 2x BOIL lost -5.5%.
I feel that much of the selling pressure over the past 48 hours has been driven by the approaching end of the cooling season. Consistently hot temperatures over the past month—and for the next 7-10 days or so—will have slashed the surplus versus the 5-year average in half by the middle of the month. However, as shown in the Figure to the right, forecast Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) are likely to pivot from consistently above-average to below-average by around September 19. This loss in cooling demand, coupled with near-record natural gas production as discussed in yesterday’s Commentary could b...
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