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Monday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Natural Gas Extends Losing Streak To 7-Straight Sessions, But, Now Undervalued, The Commodity Due For A Bounce As Temperature Outlook Trends Colder; Natural Gas Production Erases Freeze-Off Induced Losses, But Stalled Rig Count Means Production Likely Won’t See Meaningful Gains This Year; Gas Demand To Jump Today On Quick-Hitting Shot Of Colder Temperatures

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Monday, March 1, 2021
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

Natural gas prices were little changed in a low-volatility trading session on Friday, with the April 2021 front-month contract dropping less than a penny or -0.2% to $2.77/MMBTU. However, it was enough to continue a bearish run for natural gas since mid-February’s arctic outbreak came and went, pushing the commodity’s losing streak to 7 straight sessions, the longest streak since 12 consecutive in October 2019. Besides profit-taking, investors have also shunned a near-term temperature outlook that had trended milder for early March throughout the week as well as natural gas production that had quickly recovered after mid-February freeze-offs. However, with a storage deficit versus the 5-year average that is now pushing -250 BCF, the sell-off pushed natural gas prices to undervalued based on current inventories according to my Fair Price Model last week for the first time in 2021. With a Fair Price of $2.81/MMBTU, natural gas is undervalued by 1.4%, an undervaluation that will rise to ...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Friday, February 26, 2021
Natural Gas Extends Losses On Mild Temperature Outlook Despite The EIA Reporting The Second Largest Weekly Withdrawal On Record; Inventories Set To Bottom At Bullish--But Comfortabl--Levels In 5-6 Weeks, But Next Autumn’s Peak Could Be Very Tight; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today With Slightly Bullish Withdrawal Expected To Wrap Up The Week

Thursday, February 25, 2021
Natural Gas Drops Again As Warmer-Than-Normal Outlook Sours Sentiment, But E&Ps Vault Higher As Bullish Set-Up Remains In Place; Oil Prices Surge To New Yearly High As EIA Reports Only Mildly Bearish Build Despite Large Weather-Driven Drop In Demand; EIA Projected To Announce Historic—But Highly Uncertain—339 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Rise On Quick-Hitting Short Of Colder Air

Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Natural Gas Continues Slide As Warming Temperatures Dampen Sentiment, But Upside Potential Outweighs Downside Risk At These Levels; WTI Reaches 1-Year High Intraday But Fades In The Afternoon Ahead Of Today’s Expected Crude Oil Inventory Build; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today As Mild Temperatures Dominate Lower 48

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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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