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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Logs Biggest Gain Since March After Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Injection; May Temperature & Demand Outlook Looks Seasonable, But Supply Continues To Struggle; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures Dominate The Eastern US; Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average Expected To Hold Steady But Year-Over-Year Surplus To Narrow Through Mid-May
Friday, May 1, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for April 18-24, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +79 BCF. This was 3 BCF smaller than my +82 BCF projection but was still 16 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the injection averaged 0.7 BCF/day loose, or bearish, versus the 5-year average, representing a slight (0.2 BCF/day) tightening from the previous week. This means that, of the week’s 16 BCF of bearishness, roughly 5 BCF was due to fundamentals and the remaining 11 BCF was due to mild temperatures. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 2142 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average widened to +153 BCF. The year-over-year surplus, on the other hand, actually narrowed to +116 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories remain at the second highest level for the week in the last 5 years, albeit far below 2024’s 5-year maximum.
Three out of the five storage regions registered bearish inject...
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