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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rises Again On Monday To One-Week Highs As Investors Cheer Lower Production, Even As LNG Export Demand & Early-To-Mid October Temperature Outlook Underwhelms; Gas Demand To Reach Near-Term Peak Today On Northeast Cold Snap And West Coast Heat; 2026 Inventories Close In On 2023
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
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Natural gas prices extended Friday’s gains on Monday to open the week on a solid note. The front-month November 2026 contract rose by 3 cents or 1.0% to settle at $3.07/MMBTU. It was the highest close for the contract since September 28. Among ETFs, 1x UNG added +0.8% while 2x BOIL jumped +1.8%.
With the near-term temperature outlook largely static over the weekend, I suspect that much of yesterday’s gains were driven by supply/demand data, especially production. As shown in the Figure to the right, natural gas production rebounded sharply last week in the wake of a force majeure on the Columbia Gas pipeline, recovering nearly half of its losses to above 109 BCF/day. Since then, however, output has pulled back again to near 108 BCF/day. While this is still up approximately 2 BCF/day year-over-year, production this time last year was reaching a nadir before ramping up the rest of the fourth quarter, as also shown in the Figure to the right. If 2026 doesn’t see similar gains, pro...
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