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Monday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Stumbles To 2-Month Lows On Freeport Maintenance & Big EIA Storage Injection Despite Hotter-Than-Normal Temperature Outlook; Prices Undervalued Under $3/MMBTU, But Don’t Expect A Big Rally Until Fundamentals Tighten; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today Amidst Triple Digit Heat Across The Northern Plains
Monday, July 13, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices fell for a third straight session on Friday to wrap up the week on a bearish note. The front-month August 2026 contract dropped by 7 cents or 2.4% to settle at $2.94/MMBTU, the lowest close for the front-month since May 14. On the week, the commodity was down an ugly -8.0%. Among ETFs, 1x UNG lost -2.1% on Friday while 2x BOIL shed -4.2%.
On the one hand, Friday’s loss was likely driven by news that the Freeport LNG export facility was entering prolonged maintenance that would cut volumes by at least 50% or around 1 BCF/day through the end of August. This is reflected in the Figure to the right. As a result, total LNG feedgas demand retreated to 17.0-17.2 BCF/day, up less than +1 BCF/day year-over-year. This curtailed one of the primary bullish catalysts for natural gas and loosened supply/demand imbalances.
In addition, sentiment was likely also subdued due to follow-through from Thursday’s unequivocally disappointing +61 BCF EIA storage injection th...
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