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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Slides To 10-Day Lows Despite Bullish & Tight EIA Storage Report; Prices Pressured On Mild Mid-October Temperature Outlook; Natural Gas Futures Undervaluations Widen After Sell-Off; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Summer-Like Heat Overspreads The East and West; Early-Season Shot Of Cold Air & Heating Demand Arrives Next Week, But It Won’t Stick Around
Friday, October 2, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for September 19-25, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +64 BCF. This was 2 BCF smaller than my +66 BCF projection and was a solid 16 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the injection averaged a strong 1.9 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, the tightest week since early March. The improved supply/demand imbalance was driven by the combination of a drop in production as well as a 26% week-over-week decline in wind generation. With the +66 BCF injection, natural gas inventories rose to 3415 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +79 BCF. The year-over-year deficit, on the other hand, weakened slightly to -138 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories remain at the third highest level for the week in the last 5 years, but are only 20 BCF above 2023 and are likely to drop below that year in the next 1-2 weeks.
All five storage reg...
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