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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Tumbles After Dispiritingly Loose EIA Storage Injection; Prices Fairly Valued After Sell-Off But Watch Renewables Generation & LNG Export Demand For Upside Potential If Storage Surplus Stays Under +200 BCF; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today As Cooler Temperatures Expand Across the Plains & Ohio Valley; Demand To Rise Next Week After Soft Start As Northern Tier Heatwave Gradually Shifts South
Friday, July 10, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for June 27-July 3, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +61 BCF. This was considerably larger than my +49 BCF projection and 10 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average—despite consistently hotter-than-normal temperatures especially during the second half of the week. As a result, this was the loosest injection on a temperature-adjusted basis so far in 2026 by my calculations, averaging -3.9 BCF/day loose versus the 5-year average. This was likely due to the combination of higher wind generation throughout the week as well as the 4th of July Holiday at the end of week. With the injection, inventories rose to 2983 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average widened to +185 BCF. The year-over-year deficit slumped to just -15 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories are at their third highest level for the date in the last 5 years, just below last year but still well below 2024’s 5-year maximum.
Five ou...
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