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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rallies On Prolonged July Heat, But Gains Limited To Near Contracts As Robust Storage Surplus Expected To Persist; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Cool Northeast & Hot South & Plains Drives Neutral Weather-Driven Demand
Tuesday, July 7, 2026
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Natural gas prices reversed early-session losses to finish in the black on Monday as traders returned from the long holiday weekend. The front-month August 2026 contract rose 5 cents or 1.5% to settle at $3.25/MMBTU. The 1x ETF UNG rose +1.1% while 2x BOIL (which holds September contracts) added +0.8%. Most of the gains were restricted to the cooling season—August and September—contracts with the Fall Shoulder and Heating Season contracts flat.
Prices got a boost on Monday as investors cheered the near-term temperature outlook, which remains at least modestly supportive with widespread seasonably to unseasonably warm conditions across much of the Lower 48 at least into mid-July. As shown in the Figure to the right, Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) are expected to consistently above the 5-year average at least through July 20, as shown in the Figure to the right, if only just. However, this consistency pays off. As of Monday evening, my Consensus Model—which integrates a ...
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