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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Tops $3.00/MMBTU For The First Time Since January 2019 As Bulls Take Charge; Oil Prices Falter Despite Another EIA-Reported Storage Drawdown As Demand Concerns Persist; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +50 BCF Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today On Eastern Warmth, But Realtime Storage Surplus Still Expected To Fall Below +300 BCF This Afternoon
Thursday, October 22, 2020
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Benefitting from a much colder-than-normal late October temperature outlook and LNG exports that are topping 6-month highs, natural gas broke through the $3.00/MMBTU barrier for the first time in 21 months on Wednesday. The front-month November 2020 contract settled up 11 cents or $3.8/MMBTU at $3.02/MMBTU, the highest close since January 25, 2019. And unlike Tuesday when the front-month gained but later contracts dipped, yesterday’s gains were felt across the board with the January 2021 contract settling at a new high of $3.47/MMBTU. As the Figure to the right shows, all but 2 of the next 8 futures contracts—May 2021 at $2.96/MMBTU and June 2021 at $2.98/MMBTU—are above the $3.00/MMBTU. Front-month prices are now up +33% year-over-year and, for the next 8 months, natural gas prices are averaging $3.15/MMBTU. While the commodity is susceptible to a pullback on any hint of a warming trend, natural gas will continue to benefit from a monstrous tailwind thanks to a very tight supply/demand...
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