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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Snaps Five-Session Winning Streak Though Some Upside Potential Remains; Oil Prices Plunge Despite Record Crude Inventory Drawdown On Rumored Iran Deal; EIA Projected To Announce Neutral +95 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Heatwave Comes To An End Across The East
Thursday, May 21, 2026
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After a five session winning streak sent natural gas prices soaring nearly 10% over the past week, the commodity pulled back yesterday alongside the broader energy sector, giving up over a third of these gains. The front-month June 2026 contract fell 11 cents or 3.5% to settle at an even $3.00/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG fell by -3.5% while 2x BOIL shed -6.8%.
First and foremost, I suspect that prices were dragged down by oil after news of progress in negotiations that could lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. More on that later. However, I expect that prices were also pressured lower by the near-term temperature outlook which moderated over the past 24-36 hours. As shown in the Figure to the right, 14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) as forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models trended lower, as shown in the Figure to the right. As of Wednesday evening, both models were below the 5-year average and my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based ...
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