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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Trades Sideways As Investors Eye Fundamentals & Late-Cooling Season Temperature Outlook; WTI Dips Despite Better-Than-Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Heat Returns To The Eastern Seaboard
Thursday, August 6, 2026
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Natural gas prices were flat on Wednesday as the near-term temperature outlook held nearly steady, production dropped, and investors eyed an uncertain future in the Middle East. The front-month September 2026 contract rose by less than a penny or 0.2% to settle at $2.69/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG dipped -0.3% while 2x BOIL shed -0.5% due to losses after the 2:30 PM ET close of floor trading.
The near-term temperature outlook was nearly unchanged yesterday. Late-Summer heat will reach its maximum extent over the weekend into early next week before forecast Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) slowly decline towards the 5-year average into the third week of the month. This 8-14 day outlook remains at the cooler end of the one-week range. However, according to my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—14-day accumulated GWDDs still stand at 191 GWDDs for August 6-19 as of early Thursday morning, good enough for the 5-year hig...
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