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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Spikes In Largest Cooling Season Rally On Record Thanks To Warming Near-Term Outlook, Soft Production, & Stronger Exports; Gas Demand To Reach Weekly Nadir Today As Isaias Brings Cooldown & The Threat Of 1 Million Power Outages To The Densely Populated Eastern Seaboard; LNG Feedgas Demand To Climb Back Above 4 BCF/Day Today

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Tuesday, August 4, 2020
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In a stunning, record-setting day of trading, natural gas prices exploded to the upside to open the week. The front-month September 2020 contract gained 30 cents or 16.8% to settle at $2.10/MMBTU. It was the largest single-session gain since November 14, 2018 during a rally in which a large storage deficit and early-season arctic outbreak prices soaring over $4.50/MMBTU. Additionally, it was the largest daily gain all-time (since 1994) for the cooling season— covering the months of June, July, and August—topping the +14.3% from July 31, 2006. Many of these rallies occurred ahead of Gulf hurricanes--back when Gulf hurricanes were a bullish driver for natural gas. The close was the highest since May 5 and was only the second time the commodity has traded above $2.00/MMBTU since January. With the rally, natural gas is now, remarkably, 1% higher than the same time last year, the first time this has been the case in 2020...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Monday, August 3, 2020
Natural Gas Set To Bounce To Start The Week As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Trends Warmer; But First, Gas Demand To Slump Early This Week On Tropical Storm Isaias & September-Like Airmass Across The Central US—But The Heat Will Be Back Soon; LNG Exports Rise Over The Weekend With Feedgas Topping Year-Ago Levels Today For The First Time Since Early June; LNG Global Pricing Spread Data Now Available


Friday, July 31, 2020
Natural Gas Falls Sharply On Cool Early-August Temperature Outlook After The EIA Announces Slightly Larger-Than-Expected +26 BCF Weekly Storage Injection; Oil Sinks On Poor Economic News; End Of Season Peak Inventories Hold Under 4000 BCF As Bullish Narrative Remains Intact; Cool Early August Outlook To Drive Bearish Injection Next Week As Hurricane Isaias A Growing Threat To The Entire Eastern Seaboard


Thursday, July 30, 2020
Natural Gas Sees Another Broad Rally In Spite Of Cool Start To August Thanks To Production Decline & Improving Long-Term Fundamentals; Oil Prices Hold Onto Gains After Big Crude Oil Inventory Draw, But Distillates & Gasoline Builds; Gas Demand; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +24 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today


Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive




Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.