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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rallies After Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Report Suggests Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalances; Gas Prices Now Undervalued, But Follow Through Is Needed; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Temperatures Warm Across The Central US; Bullish Weekly Injections Expected This Week And Next Before Triple Digit Builds Potentially Return In Late May
Friday, May 8, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for April 25-May 1, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +63 BCF. This was 14 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average and was comfortably below my +73 BCF expectation. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the injection averaged 1.0 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, the strongest Report since the last week of February. It means that 7 BCF or the week’s 14 BCF bullishness was due to supply/demand fundamentals with the remainder due to colder-than-normal temperatures across the Central US. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 2205 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +139 BCF. The year-over-year surplus fell sharply to +75 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, storage levels remain at the second highest level for the week in the last 5 years below only 2024 but are converging on the cluster from 2025 and 2023.
Three out of the five storage regions registered bull...
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