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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rallies After Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Report, Middle East Conflict, & Late March Cold Potential; Can Inventories Bottom Below 1800 BCF? Daily Storage Withdrawals To Flip To Injections Today As Spring-Like Warmth Dominates The Midwest & Southeast; Weekly Storage Injection Expected Next Week, But The Heating Season Isn’t Quite Finished
Friday, March 6, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for February 21-27, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -132 BCF. This was 36 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average and 6 BCF larger than my -126 BCF projection. It was the second largest withdrawal for the week in the last 5 years. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the draw averaged 1.8 BCF/day or 13 BCF/week tight (bullish) versus the 5-year average, the strongest week since mid-December. This means that more that a third of the week’s bullishness was due to supportive supply/demand fundamentals with the remainder due to a mid-week arctic blast across the Northeast. With the -132 BCF withdrawal, storage levels fell to 1886 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average widened to -43 BCF. The year-over-year surplus narrowed to +115 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories are at the third lowest level for the week in the last 5 years, above 2022 and 2025.
Three out of the five storage regions regist...
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