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Tuesday's Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Recovers From Early Gap Down After Production Gains Over The Weekend & Temperature Outlook Looks Seasonable; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady Today On Cool Northern Tier & Hot South

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Tuesday, August 16, 2022
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


Natural gas prices gapped sharply lower Monday morning but, as has become something of a trend this Summer, buyers stepped in and the commodity rallied. By 9:45 AM EDT, prices were trading as low as $8.41/MMBTU. But, by the close of floor trading, the front-month September 2022 finished with a small 4 cent or 0.5% loss at $8.73/MMBTU., a more than 30 cent recovery.

Prices were weak early largely due to a weekend recovery in production back above 98 BCF/day and back to within 0.5 BCF/day of all-time highs from a week earlier. Output is up around +5 BCF/day versus last year.

Additionally, prices were also pressured by overnight runs of the ECMWF and GFS models which trended cooler for the next 14-days, blunting the expected late-August warm-up. Monday’s runs trended somewhat warmer but, at under 160 forecast accumulated gas-weighted degree days (GWDDs) for August 16-29, the current forecast remains in the bottom half of the last 5 years.

I expect the rally was dri...

Continue Reading Full Article (FOR SUBSCRIBERS)...


Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Monday, August 15, 2022
Natural Gas Prices Dip Friday But Log Huge Week On Lower Production & Hotter Late-August Temperature Outlook; Production Rebounds Over The Weekend, But Temperature Outlook Also Trends Hotter; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Logs Weekly Gain; Gas Demand To Rebound Today, But Will Then Stagnate For The Next 7-10 Days With Daily Injections At Or Above The 5-Year Average


Friday, August 12, 2022
EIA Announces Neutral & Slightly Larger-Than-Expected Natural Gas Storage Injection, But Prices Spike To 6-Week Highs On Strong LNG Exports, Lower Production, & Gulf Oil Pipeline Leak; End-Of-Season Peak Projections Converge towards A Low—But Not Alarming—3350-3400 BCF; Gas Demand To Fall Today On Cooling East, But Bullish Injection Expected This Week Thanks To Tighter Supply/Demand Imbalance


Thursday, August 11, 2022
Natural Gas Surges After Freeport Withdraws Force Majeure, Production Slumps, & Wind Hits Summer Low—Even As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Cools Further; Oil Prices Rise After Gasoline Demand Rebounds & Dollar Drops; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish +40 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Mid-Atlantic Cools With Near-Normal Build Expected


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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.