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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Early Rally Fails As December Futures Still Winless As Front Month Contract; Unseasonably Mild Temperature Outlook Continues To Drive Bearish Sentiment As Injection Season Likely To Stretch Into Mid-November; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Exceptionally Mild Temperatures Dominate The Central US & Begin To Shift Eastward
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices gapped up Monday morning on a sharp drop in production, but couldn’t hold onto their gains as an unseasonably mild early-to-mid November temperature outlook continue to weigh on sentiment. The front-month December 2026 contract traded as high as $2.96/MMBTU early before fading during the floor session to ultimately settle down 4 cents or 1.5% at $2.86/MMBTU. Since becoming the front-month contract last week, December prices have yet to register a daily gain. Among ETFs, 1x UNG shed -0.9% while 2x BOIL, which holds less volatile January contracts, lost a more modest -0.6%.
It’s a new week, but the story remains the same here. With the storage injection season typically in its final week, there is still no sign of the colder temperatures needed to flip builds to withdrawals. As of Monday evening, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was calling for just 147 Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for No...
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