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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Retreats On Profit-Taking, Higher Production, & Cooler Mid-September; Gas Prices Undervalued, But Keep Near-Term Expectations In Check; Gas Demand To Rise To A Near-Term High Today On Impressive Late-Season Heat; EIA’s Petroleum Status Report Delayed Until Thursday
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
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Natural gas prices retreated on Tuesday in the wake of the long-holiday weekend as investors took profits after last week’s fifth straight weekly gain and as higher production may have spooked some. Prices did, however, finish well off intra-session lows. After trading as low as $2.87/MMBTU at around the noon hour, the front-month October 2026 contract ultimately settled down a more modest 6 cents or 2.0% at $2.92/MMBTU. Correcting for an underperformance from Friday, natural gas ETFs saw even smaller losses. 1x UNG fell -1.0% while 2x BOIL shed just -1.8%.
In addition to profit-taking, I do suspect higher production may also be weighing on sentiment. As shown in the Figure to the right, natural gas output has ground higher this Summer, most recently topping out near all-time highs at 112 BCF/day. This is up more than +4 BCF/day year-over-year due to a drop-off in supply this time last year, more than cancelling out gains in LNG export demand and losses in imports. The results ...
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