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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Fades Despite Larger-Than-Expected EIA-Reported Storage Withdrawal On Moderating Temperature Outlook But Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance Will Limit Losses; End Of Season Storage Nadir Targeting The 5-Year Average & Modest Year-Over-Year Deficit
Friday, January 15, 2021
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for January 2-8, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -134 BCF. While still 27 BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg, it was a solid 7 BCF larger than my -127 BCF projection. With the draw, inventories fell to -3196 BCF while the storage surplus versus the 5-year average widened to +218 BCF or +7%. All 5 storage regions saw bearish withdrawals, led by the South Central Region whose -37 BCF draw was 8 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. However, while the East Region’s -39 BCF withdrawal was 5 BCF smaller than the 5-year average, it did come in larger than last year and was sufficient to flip the region to a -1 BCF year-over-year deficit, the first time that any region has seen a year-over-year deficit in more than 18 months. Through the first nine weeks of the traditional heating season, natural gas inventories have decreased by a total of -731 BCF. While this is still +155 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average, it would actually...
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