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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas & Oil Both Rally On Strait Of Hormuz Crisis & More Supportive Near-Term Temperature Outlook; EIA Reports Bearish Petroleum Status Report, But Traders Have More On Their Minds; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bearish -44 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Colder Temperatures Finally Arrive
Thursday, March 12, 2026
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Natural gas rode the coattails of oil as well as well as a cooler near-term temperature outlook higher for a big gain on Wednesday. The front-month April 2026 contract jumped by 19 cents or 6.3% to settle at $3.21/MMBTU, the highest close since February 13. Among ETFs, 1x UNG added 5.0% while 2x BOIL rose 9.5%. Due to gains in my E&P holdings, my Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio rose by +2.0% to push year-to-date gains back up to +9.6%, within 0.5% of all-time highs.
In addition to the continuing geopolitical drama in the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas prices found buyers on Wednesday courtesy of the near-term temperature forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF near-term models trended generally colder throughout the day, driving accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) higher and very close to the 5-year average, as shown in the Figure to the right. An early-season heatwave across the Southwest and Deep South late next week could even support GWDDs. As of late Wednesday evening, my Con...
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