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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Natural Gas Tops $3.00/MMBTU For The First Time Since January 2019 As Bulls Take Charge; Oil Prices Falter Despite Another EIA-Reported Storage Drawdown As Demand Concerns Persist; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +50 BCF Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today On Eastern Warmth, But Realtime Storage Surplus Still Expected To Fall Below +300 BCF This Afternoon

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Thursday, October 22, 2020
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

Benefitting from a much colder-than-normal late October temperature outlook and LNG exports that are topping 6-month highs, natural gas broke through the $3.00/MMBTU barrier for the first time in 21 months on Wednesday. The front-month November 2020 contract settled up 11 cents or $3.8/MMBTU at $3.02/MMBTU, the highest close since January 25, 2019. And unlike Tuesday when the front-month gained but later contracts dipped, yesterday’s gains were felt across the board with the January 2021 contract settling at a new high of $3.47/MMBTU. As the Figure to the right shows, all but 2 of the next 8 futures contracts—May 2021 at $2.96/MMBTU and June 2021 at $2.98/MMBTU—are above the $3.00/MMBTU. Front-month prices are now up +33% year-over-year and, for the next 8 months, natural gas prices are averaging $3.15/MMBTU. While the commodity is susceptible to a pullback on any hint of a warming trend, natural gas will continue to benefit from a monstrous tailwind thanks to a very tight supply/demand...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Natural Gas Front-Month Surges To 21-Month High On Cold Temperatures & Rebounding LNG Exports While Winter Contracts Take A Breather; Oil Snaps 3-Session Losing Streak Ahead Of Expected Bullish EIA Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today On Unseasonably Mild East But Bullish Injection Still Expected On Tight Supply/Demand Imbalance

Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Natural Gas Rallies Into The Close On Cooler Temperature Outlook & Optimistic LNG Export Outlook; Gas Demand To Fall Today On Warming Southern Plains, Despite Early-Season Accumulating Snowfall Further North—But A Bullish Build Is Still Expected; LNG Feedgas Jumps To 2-Week High While Production Plateaus

Monday, October 19, 2020
Natural Gas Sells Off Into The Close On Friday To Finish With A Weekly Loss On Calcasieu Channel Debris, But Sunday LNG Feedgas Rebound & Cooling Trend In the October Temperature Outlook Should Limit Downside Risk; Bullish Daily Natural Gas Storage Injection Expected Today As Unseasonably Cool Conditions Dominate Northern Tier; Even With Mid-Week Warm-Up, Another 5-Year Minimum Weekly Injection Is Likely This Week

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Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

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Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

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Crude Oil Storage

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