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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rallies For Second Straight Session As Temperature Outlook Improves; Oil Sells Off On Mid-Term Results; EIA Reports Distillate Inventories Retreat To Lowest Since 2003; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +82 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Temperatures Across The Central US Begin To Moderate
Thursday, November 5, 2026
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Natural gas prices rose on Wednesday even as the energy sector was routed to register a rare two-session winning streak. The front-month December 2026 contract gained 6 cents or 2.2% to settle at $2.96/MMBTU, the highest close for the contract since October 28. Among ETFs, 1x UNG rose +1.5% while 2x BOIL—which holds January 2027 contracts which have been considerably less volatile than the front-month—rose +1.3%.
In addition to dip-buying from the recent extended sell-off, I expect yesterday’s bounce was largely driven by a modest cooldown in the near-term temperature outlook. As shown in the Figure to the right, both the GFS and ECMWF near-term models have seen a roughly 25 Gas-Weighted Degree (GWDD) increase in their 14-day outlooks over the past 24-48 hours (at least as of the time of this writing). While the GWDD forecast is still well below-average (and actually remains at 5-year lows for the period), prices had been so aggressively sold off over the past 2-3 weeks that an...
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