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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Prices Plunge To 10-Week Lows On Oil Sell-Off; Coming El Nino Promises To Be One For The Record Books; Gas Demand To Drop Slightly Today As Great Lakes & Midwest Cools
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
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Alongside the broader energy sector, natural gas prices tumbled on Monday to start the week off on a bearish note. The front-month August 2026 contract fell by 10 cents or 3.6% to settle at $2.77/MMBTU. It was the lowest close since May 8. The August contract will expire at the close of trading tomorrow. Among ETFs, 1x UNG tumbled -4.2% while 2x BOIL erased -8.2%.
First and foremast, I expect that natural gas was collateral damage to widespread losses in the energy sector after the US and Iran adopted an unofficial ceasefire over the weekend as Oman worked as a mediator to re-open the Strait Of Hormuz. Oil prices dropped over 7% as a result. For natural gas, re-opening the Strait could, in theory, bolster LNG supply, though the immediate impact on the US storage situation would be rather minimal.
From a purely domestic standpoint, the near-term temperature outlook was largely unchanged on Monday. As shown in the Figure to the right, 14-day Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDD...
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