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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Takes Breather On Wednesday Ahead Of Today’s Big EIA Storage Report; Bearish Near-Term Narrative Faces Off With Bullish Long-Term Narrative; Oil Prices Drop After Disappointing EIA Petroleum Status Report & New US-Iran Nuclear Talks; Gas Demand To Peak Near-Term Today As Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures Dominate The Northeast
Thursday, May 22, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices took a breather on Wednesday after the prior session’s big move higher. After the commodity had gained 10% on Tuesday, the front-month June 2025 contract dropped 6 cents or 1.7% yesterday to settle at $3.37/MMBTU. Natural gas ETFs, which now hold July contracts, outperformed with 1x UNG losing -0.4% and 2x BOIL -0.9%.
In addition to profit-taking, I suspect that yesterday’s pullback was driven by concern about a big EIA storage injection today (more on that below) as well as a continued focus on near-term fundamentals. The bearish versus bullish narrative continues to hinge on your timeframe. In the near-term, demand this week has been propped up by robust late-season heating demand across the Northern Tier and cooling demand across the South. That will fade this weekend as temperatures moderate and loose imbalances, driven by stubbornly strong production and gas-to-coal switching, will take back over as the primary driver of demand. As shown in the Figure to...
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