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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Registers Small Loss In April Contract’s Debut After Bearish EIA Storage Report; Inventories Now Expected To Bottom Above 1800 BCF This Spring; Natural Gas Is Undervalued, But That Doesn’t Guarantee Higher Prices Right Away; Gas Demand To Spike This Weekend On Quick Shot Of Arctic Air, But Steady Decline Expected Next Week Before Daily Injections Arrive Early
Friday, February 27, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for February 14-20, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -52 BCF. This was 1 BCF smaller than my projection and a massive 136 BCF bearish versus the 5-year. It was a 5-year low drawdown for the week. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal actually averaged 0.8 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, the tightest so far in 2026, likely due to stronger LNG export demand, weaker imports, and a pullback in production. It means that the entirety (and then some) of the bearishness of the Report was due to unseasonably mild temperatures that suppressed heating demand. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 2018 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average narrowed to just -7 BCF. The year-over-year deficit flipped to a surplus and spiked to +141 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, natural gas inventories are now at the third lowest level for the week in the last 5 years, down one spot...
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