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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Slides In June 2026 Contract’s Front-Month Debut On Moderating Temperature Outlook & Robust Storage Surplus; Oil Prices Surge After Epic EIA-Reported Storage Drawdowns; EIA Projected To Report Slightly Bearish +82 BCF Natural Gas Injection In Today’s Closely-Watched Storage Report
Thursday, April 30, 2026
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Avoiding the volatility that is typical of expiration day, natural gas prices finished Tuesday with a small gain. The contract dropped 4 cents or -1.6% to settle at $2.65/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG dropped -1.7% while 2x BOIL shed -3.3%.
The loss was likely driven by the combination of concern about a bearish injection in today’s Storage Report (more on that below), a robust storage surplus, and a moderation in the near-term temperature outlook. As shown in the Figure to the right, both the ECMWF and GFS models saw their 14-day Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) outlooks trended lower over the past 24-36 hours. As of early Thursday morning, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was calling for 138 GWDDs for April 30-May 13, +4 GWDDs greater than the 5-year average but the third fewest for the period in the last 5 years.
Typically, such a forecast would be at least neutral for gas demand but, as I’ve discussed i...
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