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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Gas Prices Fall To Lowest Since January In Response To Mild Temperature Outlook, Robust Production, & Lower LNG Exports, But Summer & Fall Prices Remain Solid; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +19 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Oil Prices Rise After EIA’s Bullish Status Report & New Iranian Sanctions; Gas Demand To Retreat Today As Eastern Cold Snap Fades
Thursday, April 17, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas fell again on Wednesday, driving prices to a fresh 2+ month low. The front-month May 2025 contract fell by 8 cents or 2.5% to settle at $3.25/MMBTU, the lowest since January 31. However, the losses were primarily restricted to the front-month contract. The 1x ETF UNG, which holds front-month contracts, lost -1.9% while 2x BOIL, which holds T+2 July contracts, only dropped -1.2. Prices continue to be weighed down by the same bearish catalysts that I’ve discussed over the past 2 weeks: an unseasonably mild near-term temperature outlook featuring Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) at 5-year lows and production that continues to hover near record highs above 106 BCF/day. A modest drop in LNG exports to around 15-16 BCF/day from last week’s 17 BCF/day may have also contributed. However, investors have been reluctant to drop prices in the longer-term contracts much lower as fundamentals otherwise look solid: inventories remain at a deficit versus both last year and the 5-year avera...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
