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Support Celsius Energy & Access Premium Features!
As Celsius Energy continues to grow, costs and the time commitment to keep the site maintained build rapidly. For this reason, I am offering premium features for a small monthly fee to help support the site. These include:
-Daily Commentaries, a 1000-1500 word 5x per week discussion of natural gas fundamentals, trading outlook and strategies
-Advanced weather modeling data
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-Daily natural gas supply & demand data
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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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This Is What A Bull Market Looks Like: Natural Gas Rallies Late On Cooler Near-Term Temperature Outlook Even As Broad Outlook Remains Bearish; EIA Projected To Announce Above-Average +95 BCF Storage Injection Today—But Don’t Be Surprised For The Bulls Shrug Off Bearishness; EIA Also Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Build But Bullish Refined Product Draw In Today’s Delayed Petroleum Status Report
Thursday, October 14, 2021
***For subscribers, the next daily commentary will be published on Monday, October 18. All other data will continue to be updated as scheduled***
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
This is what a bull market looks like. Natural gas spent much of Wednesday’s trading session in the red but then rallied sharply just before the close to finish near the session’s highs. The front-month November 2021 contract settled up 9 cents or 1.5% at $5.59/MMBTU. The commodity continued to rise after the 2:30 PM EDT close of floor trading to as high as $5.70/MMBTU such that the 1x ETF UNG closed up +3.7% and the 2x ETF BOIL was up +7.3%.
The abrupt rally was driven by a cooldown in both the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECWMF that resulted in each picking 5-10 GWDDs over the next 14 days, as shown in the Figure to the right. However, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—is still only calling for 130 14-day accumulated GWDDs, near 5-year lows for October 14-27 even after the cooldown. If natural gas could see such gains with a still bearish temperature outlook and with the commodity so steeply overvalued on a fun...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
