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Monday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Falls On Thursday After In-Line EIA Storage Data And Logs Big Weekly Loss, But Prices Are Now Close To Bottoming; Keep An Eye On Coal-To-Gas Switching This Spring; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Cooler Conditions Overspread The Midwest
Monday, April 6, 2026
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Natural gas prices fell slightly on Thursday as investors were unimpressed by the EIA’s latest storage data. In its weekly Natural Gas Report for March 21-27, the EIA announced that storage rose by +36 BCF in what is typically the final withdrawal of the Heating Season. This was 40 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and came in a slight 2 BCF above my projection. While not a huge miss, coupled with an uninspiring near-term temperature outlook, it was enough to push prices slightly lower heading into the holiday weekend. The front-month May 2026 contract fell by 2 cents or 0.7% to settle at $2.80/MMBTU, the lowest close for the front-month since August 26, 2025. Among ETFs, 1x UNG fell -0.6% while 2x BOIL shed -1.1%. BOIL will begin its bimonthly rollover this week, selling May contracts and buying T+2 July contracts. On the week, the front-month contract dropped by -7.4%.
Over the past two weeks, the near-term temperature outlook has been quite bearish with unseasonably mil...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
