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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Oil Pulls Back Again After The EIA Announces First Inventory Build In A Month & Saudi Output Rebounds; EIA Projected To Announce Neutral Natural Gas Inventory Build In Today's Report; Oil Worth A Nibble As Undervaluation Rises While Natural Gas Remains Long-Term Overvalued After Short Squeeze

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Thursday, September 19, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Petroleum Status Report for September 7-13, the EIA announced Wednesday morning that crude oil inventories rose by +1.0 MMbbls. This was close to the EIA's expectation for a +0.6 MMbbl build, but was the first weekly injection in a month and was 3.4 MMbbls bearish versus the 5-year average -2.4 MMbbl draw. With the build, crude oil inventories rose to 417.1 MMbbls, while the fresh storage deficit versus the 5-year average was cut in half to just -3.3 MMbbls. The year-over-year surplus, meanwhile, rose by around 3 MMbbls to +23.0 MMbbls. The bearishness of the build was driven largely by a sharp drop in refinery demand. Inputs tumbled by 0.8 MMbbls or 4.5% from the previous week to just 16.7 MMbbls/day, the lowest since May 24 and down 0.7 MMbbls/day from 2018, as shown in the Figure to the right. Also on the demand side, exports were near steady week-over-week at 3.2 MMbbls/day, down 0.1 MMbbls/day, but are still up a robust 0.8 MMbbls/day from 2018. On the supply side...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Monday, September 16, 2019
Oil Prices Set To Surge After Attacks On Saudi Infrastructure; Natural Gas Squeeze Continues As Money Manager Short Positions See Largest Weekly Drop In Over Four Years And Rig Count Slumps; Natural Gas Becomes Overvalued As Prices Rise To Within 5% Of Year-Ago Levels Despite Large Surplus; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Late-Summer Heat Overspreads Central US


Friday, September 13, 2019
Natural Gas Rallies After EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection Even As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Trends Less Favorable; Oil Falters Again As Global Supply & Demand Worries Outweigh Tightening Domestic Inventories; Natural Gas Demand To Dip Today As Much Cooler Temperatures Overspread The Northeast


Thursday, September 12, 2019
Oil Falls On Global Demand Fears & Supply Speculation Despite Exceptionally Bullish EIA-Reported Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown; Oil Storage Expected To Fall Below 375 MMbbls By Years-End, Supporting a $65/Barrel Fair Price; EIA Expected To Announce A Slightly Bearish +82 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection Today As Rally Starts To Run Out Of Steam


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Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

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