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Advanced Model Page ***NEW!***

A new page integrating data from multiple models to generate gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) forecasts for the next 44 days. This page will be available to all through Friday, November 30, after which time it will be available to subscribers only. Click HERE to learn more about subscribing.

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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Natural Gas Sell-Off Continues As Temperatures Warm Nationwide; Crude Oil Erases Gains After EIA Reports Much Smaller-Than-Expected Decline In Inventories; EIA Projected To Announce A Neutral -82 Storage Withdrawal In Today's Report; Gas Demand To Fall For A Fourth Straight Day Today With Single-Digit Daily Draw Expected

Chart Of The Day

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Thursday, December 13, 2018
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

Natural gas prices tumbled for a second straight session on Tuesday as the near-term temperature forecast came into greater focus--and it wasn't a pretty one for the bulls. The commodity slid 28 cents or 6.2% to settle at $4.14/MMBTU, the lowest close for the front-month contract since November 15. While there remains the threat for shots of below-average temperatures around Christmas, the overall trend in the computer models over the past 24-48 hours has been to push back the timing of any such cool-down and to decrease the magnitude of arctic air. It is clear that, unlike in November and early December when the pattern was dominated by a sharp trough with transient warming, the last two weeks plus of 2018 will be dominated by a strong ridge with only transient troughing. The Figure to the right plots the 14-day gas-weighted degree day trend of the GFS and ECMWF short-term models which shows that, while the ECMWF has been the consistently colder of the two, both models have been consistently...

Continue Reading Full Article (FOR SUBSCRIBERS)...

Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Natural Gas Prices Come Under Pressure As The Most Sustained Stretch Of Bearish Temperatures In 9 Months Take Aim On The Lower 48; EIA Forecast To Announce Exceptionally Bullish -10.2 MMbbl Crude Oil Inventory Draw In Today's Petroleum Report (But Don't Count Your Chickens Just Yet); Gas Demand To Fall For Third Straight Day Today

Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Natural Gas Rallies As Threat Of Late-December Cooldown Disrupts An Otherwise Bearish Forecast; Crude Oil Tumbles 3% As Investors Focus On Threats To Demand Following EIA Production Cuts; Daily Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal To Fall Below The 5-Year Average Today As Warm-Up Builds Up Steam; Nuclear Outages & Natural Gas Substitution Demand Continue To Drop

Monday, December 10, 2018
The Warm-Up Is Real, The Warm-Up Is Here: Natural Gas Demand To Begin Week-Long Tumble Today As Pattern Shift Brings Milder Temperatures; Domestic Gas Production Tops All-Time High For Third Straight Week; Oil Rallies, But Falters Late, After OPEC & Russia Agree To Production Cuts

Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive

Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.