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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Sell-The-News Edition: Natural Gas Gives Up Friday's Gains & Then Some In Holiday Trade As Investors Respond To Near-Term Model Moderating Trend; Natural Gas Undervaluation Rises As Long-Term February Outlook Remains Consistently Colder-Than-Normal; Gas Demand To Drop Today Ahead Of The Next Wave Of Arctic Air

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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

US markets may have been closed for the Martin Luther King Holiday on Monday, but that didn't mean there wasn't action aplenty in the natural gas sector. Electronic futures trading effectively erased last Friday's sharp, late-session rally, sending prices tumbling 7% to end the abbreviated session at $3.24/MMBTU, near Friday morning's lows. Because there was no floor trading, there was no official settlement for futures contracts. In the same way that Friday's rally was driven by an abrupt cooling in the GFS and ECMWF models, Monday's sell-off was due to a steady warming trend in these models over the weekend. Rather than prolonged arctic outbreaks that spread all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico, the current thinking, especially by the GFS, is that there will be plenty of arctic air available but that it won't penetrate into the Deep South and that it won't stick around across the Lower 48. This was the sentiment that was picked up by the Bears and they executed their revenge on the bulls that...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Monday, January 21, 2019
Holiday Snippet Edition: Natural Gas Looks To Give Up Friday's Gains In Holiday Electronic Trade As Models Back Away From Record-Setting Arctic Outbreak, But Large Undervaluation Should Limit Losses; Gas Demand To Rise To New Seasonal High Today As Arctic Air Remains Entrenched; Crude Oil Surges On Falling Rig Count, But Gains Could Be Tenuous

Friday, January 18, 2019
Natural Gas Can't Hold Gains After The EIA Reports A Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Draw & Near-Term Temperature Outlook Moderates--But Bulls Are Still In The Fight; Crude Oil Recovers After US-China Rumors; Domestic Supply Rises To All-Time Record High; Gas Demand To Bottom Today As Arctic Air Returns This Weekend

Thursday, January 17, 2019
Undervalued Natural Gas Falls For A Second Day As Near-Term Computer Models Oscillate; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -84 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Oil Rises Despite Another Bearish Petroleum Status Report; Natural Gas Inventories Forecast To Flip To A Year-Over-Year Surplus Today For The First Time In Over 2 Years--But It Will Be Short-Lived

Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive

Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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