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Monday Investing Commentary

Near-Term Fundamentals Remain Favorable, But Natural Gas Is Priced For Perfection & May Be Poised For A Pull-Back; Crude Oil Domestic Fundamentals To Take A Backseat This Week As Overseas Geopolitics Dominate

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Monday, June 18, 2018
The next Daily Commentary will be published on Tuesday, June 19. What follows is the Monday Trading Commentary available to subscribers. For more on subscribing, please click HERE. Thank you to all of those who continue to support the site!

You can read Friday's full Daily Commentary HERE.

Natural gas rallied 6 cents or 1.9% on Friday to settle at $3.02/MMBTU, up 4.6% on the week. It was the highest close for the commodity since January 31, 2018. The natural gas rally was driven by expectations of continued warmer-than-average temperatures that will maintain the storage deficit versus the 5-year average above -500 BCF heading into July. Additionally, unexpected supply disruptions have kept production growth in check and below 80 BCF/day, contrary to earlier analyst forecasts that called for continued growth throughout the summer. Natural gas prices are now 4.5% higher than year-ago levels following a nearly 25% discount heading into May, which could have consequences for fuel-switching the rest of the summer. WTI crude oil, on the other hand, tumbled by $1.83 or 2.7% to $65.07/barrel on Friday, down 1% on the week. The drop came despite a generally favorable Wednesday EIA Petroleum Status Report as expectations of an OPEC production hike weighed on sentiment throughout the week. The Brent-WTI spread finally began to narrow as Brent suffered a steeper 4% weekly loss to $73.44/barrel, driving the spread down to $8.38/barrel, down from nearly $11/barrel the previous week. My Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio dipped slightly on Friday but still finished the week up +1.1% despite my not making a single trade. The portfolio is within 0.2% of all-time highs, up +14.5% through the first 115 trading days of 2018, +31.7% annualized. In the week ahead, I will look to...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Friday, June 15, 2018
Natural Gas Holds Onto Gains Despite Larger-Than-Expected EIA-Reported Storage Injection As Heatwave To Drive Strong Cooling Demand Across The Heartland This Weekend; Inventories To Finally Top 2,000 BCF On Saturday, The Latest Date Since 2014; Loosening Natural Gas Supply/Demand Increasingly Apparent Despite Ongoing Heat

Monday, June 4, 2018
Natural Gas Holds Near Top Of Trading Range As Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Remains Above -500 BCF; Mid-Summer Heat Across The Plains To More Than Offset Chilly East This Week With Below-Average Storage Injection Expected; LNG Feedgas Suppressed As Maintenance Continues

Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Natural Gas Rises As Record-Setting Warmth Dominates The Heartland While Oil Crashes & Burns As Domestic Supply/Demand Balance Weakens & OPEC Threatens To Raise Output; The Heat Is On As Powerburn Demand Will Soar This Week, Driving The 5-Year Average Storage Deficit Back Over -500 BCF

Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive

Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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