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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Natural Gas Opens The Week Flat While Oil Gives Up Geopolitical Premium On US Storage & Global Demand Concerns; EIA Drilling Productivity Report Shows Continued Slowdown In Drilling, But Is It Enough? Computer Models Continue To Trend Towards Warm Start To July; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today On Rain-Cooled East & Central Plains

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Tuesday, June 18, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

Natural gas opened the week flat, trading down less than 1 cent to hold at $2.39/MMBTU. Investors seem to be caught in a bit of a conundrum. On the one hand, the commodity is trading at its lowest in more than 3 years and is down 21% from 2018. Additionally, temperatures will steadily warm over the next week and looking to be above-average for the final week of the month and at least for the first week of July. On the other hand, this will not immediately translate to bullish inventory builds. While powerburn is seeing sizable year-over-year gains, the temperature-adjusted supply/demand imbalance is still around 3 BCF/day loose year-over-year thanks to large gains in production such that neutral to even modestly warmer-than-normal temperatures will still result in slightly bearish builds. It is likely this underlying looseness that is preventing a sustained bounce in prices...for now. Should the supply/demand imbalance continue to tighten and temperatures warm as expected, it will be...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Monday, June 17, 2019
Natural Gas Undervalued As Temperature Outlook Warms & Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens While Crude Oil Remains A Challenge On Middle East Tension & Storage-Supply/Demand Disconnect; Natural Gas & Oil Short Trades Exceptionally Overcrowded Setting Up Potential Future Short Squeeze; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today With Warm East & Cool Heartland

Friday, June 14, 2019
Natural Gas Falls To New 3-Year Low After EIA Reports A Fifth Straight Triple Digit Storage Injection, But Evidence Of Tightening Supply/Demand Balance Could Catalyze A Move Higher Once Warmer Temperatures Return; Crude Oil Spikes On Gulf Threat

Thursday, June 13, 2019
Crude Oil Plunges To New 5-Month Low After Another Bearish Inventory Build, But The Signs Are There This Nightmare Could Soon Come To An End; EIA Projected To Report A 13th Straight Bearish Natural Gas Injection Today, But Commodity Looks To Establish A Bottom As Powerburn Stays Strong & Late June Temperature Outlook Warms; Realtime Year-Over-Year Surplus To Top +200 BCF Today

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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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