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Daily Commentary

Natural Gas Rallies From Early Drop After EIA Reports Bullish +51 BCF Storage Injection; Gas Demand To Finish At 1-Week Low Today As Bearish Weather Pattern Persists; Slightly Bullish +63 BCF Injection Projected For October 14-20; Both Natural Gas Prices & Inventories Are Down More Than 5% Year-Over-Year--What Gives?

Chart Of The Day

Chart of the Day: Click here for more information on on natural gas powerburn.

Friday, October 20, 2017
After falling over 2% intraday, natural gas launched a fierce Thursday afternoon rally and rose 2 cents or 0.7% to settle near the day's high of $2.87/MMBTU after the EIA announced a very bullish weekly natural gas storage injection for October 7-13-but one that fell largely within expectations--and the temperature outlook trended cooler. Before the rally, gas prices were somewhat inexplicably threatening to drop below $2.80/MMBTU for the first time since the first week of August. One of the driving forces behind the initial pullback may have been the NOAA's 2017-2018 winter outlook which, as shown in the Figure to the right, favors milder-than-average temperatures across much of the South and Eastern Seaboard, although the magnitude of these anomalies would be considerably smaller than last winter. Even with the late-day rally, natural gas prices remain quite undervalued according to my Fair Price Model, by 15.5% versus a Fair Price of $3.42/MMBTU based on current inventories alone an...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, October 19, 2017
Natural Gas Continues Sell-Off Despite Expectations For Exceptionally Bullish +51 BCF Storage Injection In Today's EIA Storage Report; Oil Pares Gains Despite 2nd Largest Weekly Drawdown On Record; Gas Demand Falls Today On Excessively Bearish Temperature Pattern, But Will Limit Losses Due To Tight Supply/Demand Balance

Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Climbs To 2017 Intraday-High On Tuesday Before Retreating In PM Trade; EIA Forecast To Announce Record Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown For October 7-13 Today; Improved Near-Term Temperature Outlook And Tight Market Could Support Natural Gas Prices, But Exit Strategy Remains In Place

Monday, October 16, 2017
Oil & Natural Gas Rebound Over 4% Last Week As Volatile Trading Continues; Bullish +58 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection Projected For October 7-13 As LNG Exports Rise To Record And Production Falls Due To Shut-Ins; Gas Demand To Fall This Week As Heartland Temperatures Warm

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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.