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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Scores Biggest Daily Gain Since January--But Let's Not Get Carried Away; EIA Forecast To Announce Slightly Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build Today; Gas Demand To Weaken Today, But Remain Above-Average Yet Again; EOS Inventory Projections Revised Lower On 5-Year High Nuclear Outages & Cold Start To October
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices surged on Tuesday with the front-month contract jumping 11 cents or 4.2% to settle at $2.93/MMBTU. It was the largest daily gain since January 23 and the highest settlement since August 23. The rally was fueled by the bullish combination of hot near-term temperatures, a spike in natural gas substitution demand associated with nuclear outages holding at 5-year highs, and expectations for an early October cooldown that could prompt some early-season heating demand. As a result, projected injections for the next two weeks have been revised lower and it is possible that the natural gas storage deficit versus the 5-year average could be over -600 BCF by the time the calendar flips to October.
With Tuesday's rally, futures prices for the January and February 2019 contracts climbed back above $3.00/MMBTU, as shown in the Figure to the right. Thereafter, however, a large backwardation persists with April prices falling to $2.61/MMBTU. While I began discussing the prospect of a ...
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