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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Scores Biggest Daily Gain Since January--But Let's Not Get Carried Away; EIA Forecast To Announce Slightly Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build Today; Gas Demand To Weaken Today, But Remain Above-Average Yet Again; EOS Inventory Projections Revised Lower On 5-Year High Nuclear Outages & Cold Start To October

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Wednesday, September 19, 2018
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


Natural gas prices surged on Tuesday with the front-month contract jumping 11 cents or 4.2% to settle at $2.93/MMBTU. It was the largest daily gain since January 23 and the highest settlement since August 23. The rally was fueled by the bullish combination of hot near-term temperatures, a spike in natural gas substitution demand associated with nuclear outages holding at 5-year highs, and expectations for an early October cooldown that could prompt some early-season heating demand. As a result, projected injections for the next two weeks have been revised lower and it is possible that the natural gas storage deficit versus the 5-year average could be over -600 BCF by the time the calendar flips to October.


With Tuesday's rally, futures prices for the January and February 2019 contracts climbed back above $3.00/MMBTU, as shown in the Figure to the right. Thereafter, however, a large backwardation persists with April prices falling to $2.61/MMBTU. While I began discussing the prospect of a ...

Continue Reading Full Article (FOR SUBSCRIBERS)...




Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Natural Gas Rises To Open The Week As Impacts From Florence Begins To Fade; Nuclear Reactor Outages Soar To A 5-Year High While LNG Feedgas To Cove Point Rebounds; Gas Demand To Rise To Weekly High Today As Unseasonable Warmth East Of The Rockies Drives Strong Cooling Demand; Early October Outlook Trending Colder


Monday, September 17, 2018
Friday Losses Wipe Out Weekly Natural Gas Rally As Record Production & Hurricane Florence Weigh On Sentiment; Higher Coal Prices, Nuclear Outages, & Rising Short Interest Could Support Prices This Fall; Gas Demand To Start The Week Strong & Then Fade As Cold Front Displaces Unseasonable Eastern Warmth


Friday, September 14, 2018
Natural Gas Fades After EIA Storage Report Meets Expectations While Oil Tumbles After IEA Report Shows Rising Global Output; Domestic Gas Production Hits New Record, But Total Supply Curbed On Falling Canadian Imports; Gas Demand To Rise Today Despite Hurricane Florence As Unseasonable Heat Dominates Great Plains


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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