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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Plunges Nearly 4% After Investors Ignore Neutral EIA-Reported Storage Injection & (Over)React To Moderating Near-Term Temperature Outlook; Exceptionally Bullish Injection Expected This Week As Heating Demand Soars; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Northeast Moderates Before Reinforcing Shot Of Arctic Air Arrives This Weekend; Volatile Trading To Continue

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Friday, October 19, 2018
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for October 6-12, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +81 BCF. This was 2 BCF smaller than my +83 BCF projection but 2 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average, or effectively neutral. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 3037 BCF while the storage deficit versus the 5-year average contracted slightly to -605 BCF or -17%. As has become a pattern, the bearishness of the injection was driven by the East and Midwest regions whose +22 BCF and +37 BCF injections were 4 BCF and 9 BCF larger than each region's respective 5-year averages. As a result, the East region's storage deficit versus the 5-year average fell to just -75 BCF or -8%, by far the smallest % deficit or any region, with the Midwest in second place at -12%. Bearish builds in these regions have been due to a combination of above-average temperatures that weren't hot enough to drive powerburn and surging production across the Marcellus Shale without...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, October 18, 2018
Life's Just Not Fair For The Bears: Natural Gas Rises As Early November Outlook Trends Colder; Crude Oil Slumps After Unexpected Storage Build; EIA Projected To Announce +83 BCF Storage Injection Today, The Last Bearish Build For The Next 3 Weeks; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Canadian Airmass Finally Reaches The Northeast


Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Natural Gas Can't Hold Onto Gains Yet Again, But Near-Term Temperature Outlook Remains Bullish; EIA Forecast To Announce Bullish -2.1 MMbbl Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today's Status Report; Gas Demand To Weaken Today, But Realtime Storage Deficit Projected To Reach A New 4-Year High For A Second Straight Day


Tuesday, October 16, 2018
Natural Gas Surges Towards New Highs As October Outlook Trends Colder Still; Gas Demand To Rise To 1-Week High Today With Realtime Storage Deficit Projected To Reach New 4-Year High; Nuclear Reactor Outages Rise To 5-Year High Fueling Substitution Demand; Cove Point Returns To Service, But Year-Over-Year Gains In LNG Exports Evaporate


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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