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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Squeezes The Shorts After The EIA Reports Second Straight Smaller-Than-Expected Injection--But Multi-Period Cooldown May Kneecap This Bullish Catalyst; Crude Oil Pulls Back Further On Demand Growth Concerns, But Commodity Remain Solidly Undervalued; Natural Gas Production Rises To A Record High While Temperature-Adjusted Powreburn Remains Strong

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Friday, August 16, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for August 3-9, the EIA announced that natural gas inventories rose by +49 BCF. This was right at the 5-year average and was a huge 13 BCF smaller than my projected build, the largest miss to the downside this summer and the second straight. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 2738 BCF while the storage surplus versus the 5-year average held flat at -111 BCF (-4%). Inventories are +357 BCF or +15% higher than the same week in 2018. The neutrality of the report was remarkably well distributed across all of the storage regions with each region coming in within 1 BCF of its 5-year average. The largest injection was in the Midwest Region which saw inventories rise +28 BCF, 1 BCF larger than the 5-year average. On the other hand, the South Central saw a -2 BCF inventory withdrawal, right at the 5-year average. While neutral, the draw is particularly impressive since the LNG plants the dot the region saw some of the lowest demand...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, August 15, 2019
EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +62 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today's Storage Report, But Upside Potential Outweighs Downside Risk As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Becomes More Supportive; Realtime Natural Gas Inventories To Top 2800 BCF Today, Nearly 6 Weeks Ahead Of 2018's Pace; LNG Feedgas Demand To Rebound Sharply Today


Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Crude Oil Soars Amidst Trade Talks While Natural Gas Stages Dead Cat Bounce As The Sector Waits On A Meaningful Catalyst; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today's Petroleum Status Report , Pressuring Tuesday's Gains; Natural Gas Demand To Fall Today As Southern Heat Fades & LNG Feedgas Demand Slumps To Year-Over-Year Decline


Friday, August 9, 2019
Natural Gas Bounces After The EIA Announces Rare Smaller-Than-Expected +55 BCF Storage Injection; Despite Record Production, Temperature-Adjusted Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens To Flat Versus 2018--Though This May Be Only Temporary


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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