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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Oil Declines Despite Larger-Than-Expected Crude Draw After The EIA Reports Big Refined Product Builds; EIA Projected To Announce Neutral +63 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today's Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady As Heartland Heat Builds, But East Coast Cools; It's Hard Not To Be Near-Term Bearish On Natural Gas But Steep Long-Term Discount Favors The Bulls

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Thursday, July 18, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Petroleum Status report for July 6-12, the EIA announced Wednesday morning that crude oil inventories fell by -3.1 MMbbls. This was larger than Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute expectation of a -1.4 MMbbl draw and was slightly bullish versus the 5-year average -2.7 MMbbl draw. However, the decline in storage was less than a third the previous week's -9.5 MMbbl draw. The impact of individual components of supply and demand were likely muddled by the late-week influence from Tropical Storm Barry with drops in imports, exports, refinery demand and production offsetting eachother. A -0.3 MMbbl/day week-over-week decline in production to 12.0 MMbbls/day was partially offset by a -0.2 MMbbl/day decline in refinery demand. Imports slumped -0.5 MMbbls/day to 6.8 MMbbls/day--down a massive 2.2 MMbbls/day year-over-year--while exports dropped by an identical -0.5 MMbbls/day to 2.5 MMbbls/day as Barry interrupted shipping traffic into and out of Gulf ports. In fact, all of the...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Natural Gas Rout Continues As July & Early August Temperature Outlook Trends Cooler; Volatility Soars By Summertime Standards Presenting A Challenging, But Opportunistic Trading Environment; EIA Expected To Announce A Bearish Petroleum Status Report Today Led By Big Builds In Refined Products; Heatwave Cranks Up As Powerburn Likely To Set New 2019 High Today


Monday, July 15, 2019
Natural Gas Set To Pull Back As Models Trend Towards Late-July Cooldown, But Commodity Remains Attractive On Any Weakness; Tropical Storm Barry Moves Inland With Negligible Net Impact On Natural Gas LNG exports, Powerburn, Or Production; Natural Gas Demand To Bottom Today Before Temperatures Ramp Up In Widespread, But Short-Lived, Heatwave


Thursday, July 11, 2019
Crude Oil Tops $60/Barrel After The EIA Reports Bullish & Larger Than Expected -9.5 MMbbl Inventory Draw; EIA Forecast To Announce 17th Straight Bearish Natural Gas Build Today; Developing Tropical Storm Shuts In Gulf Of Mexico Oil & Natural Gas Production But Don't Get Swept Up In The Hurricane Trade--Unless You Are Looking For A Sell-The-News Opportunity


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.