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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Falls To Near 3-Year Low As Loose Market & Bearish Weather Outlook Leaves Bears Unchecked; Crude Oil Dips Despite Bullish Inventory Drawdown As Refinery Demand Still Lags (For Now); EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +89 BCF Natural Gas Inventory Build In Today's Storage Report

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Thursday, April 18, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Petroleum Status Report for April 6-12, the EIA announced Wednesday morning that crude oil inventories fell by -1.4 MMbbls, the first storage drawdown in three weeks. The draw was nearly 5 MMbbls bullish versus the 5-year average +3.2 MMbbl storage build, but was shy of Tuesday's -3.1 MMbbl American Petroleum Institute (API) forecast. With the draw, inventories fell to 455.2 MMbbls. The nascent storage surplus versus the 5-year average flipped back to a -0.5 MMbbl storage deficit. However, inventories are still up a robust 27.6 MMbbls compared to this time last year. The bullishness of the draw was driven by exceptionally soft crude oil imports which averaged just 5.99 MMbbls/day last week, the second time this year that imports failed to top 6 MMbbls/day, not having done so previously since the late 1990s. As a result, imports are down a massive 1.94 MMbbls/day year-over-year which has more than countered the rise in production which, after this week's 100,000 barrel/day decline...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Death By A Thousand Paper Cuts: Small But Consistent Daily Drops Continue To Punish Natural Gas Bulls In The Absence Of A Positive Catalyst; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today's Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall To Fresh 2019-Low Today As Projected Realtime Inventories Top 1300 BCF


Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Natural Gas Continues To Feel The Impact Of Bearish Temperature Outlook As Prices Fall Under $2.60/MMBTU; Gas Demand To Fall Today With Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Contracting Under -400 BCF; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Eclipses New 2019 High


Monday, April 15, 2019
Natural Gas Facing Stiff Headwinds As Late April & Early May Outlook Trends Seasonal Amidst Loose Supply/Demand Imbalance; Natural Gas Bulls Steadily Liquidating Their Holdings While Oil Bulls Take Control; Gas Demand To Fall This Week With Year-Over-Year Deficit Flipping To A Surplus By Wednesday


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.