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Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Natural Gas Finally Sells Off After EIA Announces Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection While Lower Refinery Demand Dooms Oil Rally (For One Day, Anyways); LNG Demand Slumps As Tropical Storm Imelda Shutters Sabine Pass Shipping Channel; Another Bearish Natural Gas Storage Injection Expected This Week Despite Southern Heat; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Reaches New 2019 High

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Friday, September 20, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report covering September 7-13, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +84 BCF. This was a slight 2 BCF bearish versus both my projection and the 5-year average, and was above most analyst expectations which ran in the upper +70s to near +80 BCF. The bearishness of the build was well-distributed across multiple Regions with the Midwest, Mountain, and Pacific Regions reporting builds slightly above their respective 5-year averages while intense heat across the Deep South led to an injection of just +16 BCF, 4 BCF bullish versus the region's average build. Four out of the five storage regions remain at storage deficits versus their respective 5-year averages, led by the South Central at -43 BCF. The Midwest, the only Region at a surplus, grew its storage surplus to +17 BCF. With a deficit of just -17 BCF or 2%, the East Region seems poised to flip to a surplus as well over the next month or so. On the other hand, all five regions...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, September 19, 2019
Oil Pulls Back Again After The EIA Announces First Inventory Build In A Month & Saudi Output Rebounds; EIA Projected To Announce Neutral Natural Gas Inventory Build In Today's Report; Oil Worth A Nibble As Undervaluation Rises While Natural Gas Remains Long-Term Overvalued After Short Squeeze

Monday, September 16, 2019
Oil Prices Set To Surge After Attacks On Saudi Infrastructure; Natural Gas Squeeze Continues As Money Manager Short Positions See Largest Weekly Drop In Over Four Years And Rig Count Slumps; Natural Gas Becomes Overvalued As Prices Rise To Within 5% Of Year-Ago Levels Despite Large Surplus; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Late-Summer Heat Overspreads Central US

Friday, September 13, 2019
Natural Gas Rallies After EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection Even As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Trends Less Favorable; Oil Falters Again As Global Supply & Demand Worries Outweigh Tightening Domestic Inventories; Natural Gas Demand To Dip Today As Much Cooler Temperatures Overspread The Northeast

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Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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