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Daily Commentary


Natural Gas Falls 4% On The Week & Remains Overvalued, But Period Of Above-Average Demand Could Provide Temporary Support; Preliminary +52 BCF Weekly Storage Injection Projected This Week, 10 BCF Bullish; Natural Gas Demand Falls To Begin Week, But Remains Above-Average

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**The next Daily Commentary will be issued on Wednesday, April 26**


Monday, April 24, 2017
Natural gas traded down 1.8% on Friday to settle at $3.10/MMBTU, down 3.9% for the week. The close was the lowest for the commodity since March 28, as persistently above above-temperatures alongside an EIA-reported larger-than-expected weekly +54 BCF natural gas storage injection last Thursday weighed on investor sentiment. While natural gas remains overvalued by roughly 7.4% near-term and 3.7% overvalued long-term according to my Fair Price Model, this overvaluation has been cut by more than half in the past two weeks. Further, with a prolonged period of seasonally cool temperatures expected for the rest of April and early May, it would not be surprising to see natural gas find support at these levels.


Crude oil fell sharply by $1.09/barrel or 2.2% on Friday to cap off a dreadful week that saw the commodity slump by 7.4% to settle at $49.62/barrel, its lowest close since March 29. Despite a fourth consecutive bullish crude oil inventory report, investors were displeased with a surprise rise in gasoline inv...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Friday, April 21, 2017
Natural Gas Retreats After EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected +54 BCF Weekly Storage Injection As Commodity Remains Overvalued; Gas Demand To Rebound Today As Colder Temperatures Settle South; Above-Average Demand To Persist Into Next Week With Bullish Weekly Injection Expected For April 22-28


Thursday, April 20, 2017
EIA Forecast To Announce Modestly Bearish +48 BCF Weekly Storage Injection In Today's Inventory Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Northeast Temperatures Rise; Oil Plunges Nearly 4% To 3-Week Low Despite Bullish Storage Draw After Surprise Gasoline Inventory Build & Continued Domestic Production Gains


Wednesday, April 19, 2017
EIA Forecast To Announce Fourth Consecutive Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today's Petroleum Report; Natural Gas Settles At 2-Week Low As Persistently Mild Temperatures Prompt Bearish Storage Injections; Nuclear Reactor Outages Rise To 2017-High Stimulating Substitution Demand


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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