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-Daily Commentaries, a 2000-3000 word 5x per week treatise on natural gas fundamentals & trading outlook and strategies

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A new page integrating data from multiple models to generate gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) forecasts for the next 44 days. This page will be available to all through Friday, November 30, after which time it will be available to subscribers only. Click HERE to learn more about subscribing.

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Monday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Lower Prices Are The Cure For Lower Prices, But First, This Is Going To Hurt; Natural Gas Set To Open Sharply Lower After Decisive Victory For The ECMWF Over The GFS; Natural Gas Storage Deficit To Flip To A Surplus Today As Demand Slumps, But It Will Be Short-Lived As Arctic Air Moves In; Growing Undervaluation & Overcrowded Short Trade Sets Up A Long-Term Opportunity For The Risk-Tolerant Trader

Chart Of The Day

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Monday, December 9, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

Natural gas dropped sharply to end what had been a promising week following Tuesday's 7% short squeeze on a low note. The front-month January 2019 contract slid 9 cents or 3.8% and settled at $2.33/MMBTU. After reaching $2.51/MMBTU intraday at the height of Tuesday's short squeeze, the commodity slid just under 8% over 3+ days, but did finish the week 2.3% in the black. That gain looks to go by the wayside this morning with prices gapping down 5%+ in overnight electronic trading with the front-month dropping as low as $2.20/MMBTU, the lowest level since August 27. Last week's selling and this morning's anticipated selling were both driven by a relentless trend in the near-term computer models. During the first half of last week, there was a significant divergence in the near-term computer models with the ECMWF calling for seasonally cool temperatures but the GFS suite forecasting a series of very intense arctic blasts that would have sent demand soaring. Despite the known historical ...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Friday, December 6, 2019
Arctic Air Arrives Early Next Week, But Unusually Divergent Computer Models Leave Investors Uncertain Despite Fundamental Undervaluation; EIA Reports Bearish Inventory Withdrawal, But Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens On Record Exports & Weak Canadian Imports; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today On Glancing Arctic Air Across The North

Thursday, December 5, 2019
Oil Prices Surge After EIA Reports First Inventory Withdrawal Since October While Natural Gas Pulls Back After Tuesday's Spike; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today--But Does Anybody Care? Arctic Air Still Likely Next Week But Uncertainty Exists As Forecast Evolves

Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Natural Gas Spikes On Prospect For Mid-December Arctic Outbreak, But Divergent Models Promise Volatility Both Up And Down In The Days Ahead; EIA Expected To Announce First Crude Oil Inventory Withdrawal In Six Weeks In Today's Status Report, But Investors More Focused On OPEC Meeting; Gas Demand Retreats Back To The 5-Year Average Today As Temperatures Warm

Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive

Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.