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Daily Commentary


Natural Gas Falls From 8-Month High After EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Withdrawal; Top 5 All-Time Withdrawal Projected For This Week Before Sustained January Thaw Arrives Driving Bearish Gas Demand Through Early February; Crude Oil Flat After EIA Reports 9th Straight Drawdown, But Jump In Production

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Friday, January 19, 2018
Natural gas pulled back from Wednesday's 8-month high, but recovered from an early 4% plunge after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal. The commodity ultimately finished down a comparatively modest 4 cents or 1.3% to $3.19/MMBTU. Later term contracts were essentially flat with the April 2018 contract closing at $2.81/MMBTU. In its weekly natural gas storage report, the EIA announced that natural gas inventories declined by -183 BCF for the week of January 6-12. This was considerably weaker than my projected -196 BCF and well below most analyst guidance, which may have gotten a bit carried away after last week's-359 BCF record blowout. The -183 BCF storage withdrawal was 19 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average -203 BCF. Inventories now stand at 2584 BCF, 362 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average. All 5 natural gas storage regions are below their 5 year averages with the South Central Region at the largest deficit of -181 BCF or -18%. The below-average withdrawal...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, January 18, 2018
Natural Gas Squeezes The Shorts As Prices Break Out To New 8-Month High; EIA Projected To Report Neutral-To-Slightly-Bearish Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal In Today's Report, But Top 10 All-Time Withdrawal Likely Next Week; EIA Forecast To Announce Bullish -5.2 MMbbl Inventory Draw Today, But Headwinds May Increase


Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Natural Gas Poised For A Pullback After 15% Run Last Week As January Thaw Looms; But First, Reinforcing Arctic Blast & Rare Deep South Winter Storm To Drive Above-Average Gas Demand Early This Week & A Third -200 BCF Draw In Four Weeks To Drive Storage Deficit To A 42-Month High


Friday, January 12, 2018
History! Natural Gas Surges 6% After EIA Reports Record -359 BCF Storage Withdrawal; Another Top-10 Storage Withdrawal Increasingly Likely For Next Week As Arctic Air Plunges South; 30-Cent Futures Backwardation Increases Chances Of Pullback...Or Sustained Long-Term Upside...But Guarantees Continued Volatility


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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