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Daily Commentary

Crude Oil Plunges Nearly 5% As Investors Sell The News; Natural Gas Dips But Remains Rangebound Trading After EIA Announces Bullish, But Larger-Than-Expected +75 BCF Storage Injection; EIA Forecast To Announce Second Straight +75 BCF Storage Injection For May 20-26

Chart Of The Day

Chart of the Day: Click here for more information on on natural gas storage.

Friday, May 26, 2017
In a classic "Sell-The-News" event, crude oil plunged by $2.46 or 4.8% on Thursday to settle at $48.90/barrel following OPEC's widely-expected announcement that it was extending production cuts by 9 months. While most market participants had expected a 9-month extension, apparently there were enough out there hoping for a surprise 12 months to fuel the downturn. The sharp decline wiped out the small crude oil overvaluation versus its Fair Price based on currently inventory levels with the commodity now trading within 1% of its Fair Price. With the crude oil storage surplus steadily contracting, this flips to an undervaluation over the next few weeks and averages 19% over the full 8-month period for which I issue projections. For this reason, I began to re-accumulate my crude oil long position after (fortunately) taking profits last week and Tuesday, selling short a small stake in DWT.

Natural gas, on the other hand, saw a far less volatile day, falling 3 cents or 0.8% to $3.18/...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, May 25, 2017
EIA Projected To Announce Modestly Bullish +69 BCF Weekly Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today's Inventory Report For May 13-19; Crude Oil Drops For First Day In Six Despite Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Drawdown As Investors Eye OPEC; LNG Feedgas To Sabine Pass Dips

Monday, May 22, 2017
Natural Gas Investor Sentiment Climbs To New 52-Week High Despite 5% Weekly Loss And Continued Overvaluation; Gas Demand Remains Robust On Chilly Temperature Pattern With Third Consecutive Bullish +66 BCF Storage Injection Expected In This Week's EIA Storage Report; Above-Average Demand Likely To Persist This Week As Well

Thursday, May 18, 2017
EIA Forecast To Announce Bullish +60 BCF Storage Injection For May 6-12 In Today's Report; Extreme Temperature Pattern Expected Today With 90's As Far North As Maine & Snow Showers In Denver; Crude Oil Survives Market Carnage, Rises To 3-Week High After Bullish EIA Report

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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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