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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Rally Fails As Profit-Takers Step In While Oil Snaps Losing Streak With Lukewarm Bounce; A Busy Day For The EIA: Agency Expected To Announce Bearish Oil And Natural Gas Inventory Builds In Twin Storage Reports Today

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Thursday, October 17, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


Natural gas staged a sharp intra-day reversal to finish with its first loss this week. The front-month November 2019 contract gapped up more than 1% to $2.38/MMBTU but then the profit-takers stepped in and the commodity ultimately finished the session down 1.5% to $2.30/MMBTU. Of note, the 1X ETF UNG began its monthly rollover Wednesday, successfully rolling 25% of its natural gas holdings from the November 2019 contract to the December 2019 contract ahead of the front-month's expiration in 10 days. The rollover will likely be complete by Monday. The December 2019 contract settled at $2.50/MMBTU on Wednesday, meaning that this rollover is going down into a 21 cent contango. This is comparable to that experienced by UGAZ when it rolled last week. This effectively amounts to selling and buying high and will contribute to the ETF's long-term underperformance as these sort of rollovers have for years. It is for this reason that I stick to almost exclusively to shorting the inverse leverag...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Natural Gas Extends Winning Streak As Near-Term Computer Models Turn Down The Thermostat Further For Late October & Early November; EIA Announces Largest Decline Yet For Drilled But Uncompleted Wells--What Does It Mean For Oil & Natural Gas Right Now And Next Year? Gas Demand To Jump Today As Quick-Hitting Chill Expands Across Heartland


Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Natural Gas Vaults Higher As Near- And Long-Term Temperature Outlooks Trend Colder; But Enjoy The Ride Now, Bulls, Since The Fundamentals Still Favor The Short Sellers Down The Road; Crude Oil Erases Friday's Gains As Fickle Investors Can't Decide On Trade Deal Prospects; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today As Texas Warms & Northern Plains Cool


Monday, October 14, 2019
Natural Gas Likely To Rally This Week On Potential Cold Snap, But Don't Get Carried Away Here--The Bears Want You To Make That Mistake; Natural Gas Investor Bullish Holdings Fall To Historic Low; Crude Oil Rises On US-China Trade Detente & Middle Eastern Tensions Even As Rig Count Rises


Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive




Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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