Advanced Modeling Page--Static Sample

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| 44-Day Hybrid Model | Hybrid Model & Natural Gas Demand ***NEW!*** | Day 1-14 Near-Term Outlook (GFS vs ECMWF) |Day 15-44 Long-Term Outlook (CFS vs ECMWF-EPS)

This page incorporates data from a variety of near-term and long-term computer models to project gas-weighted degree days (GWDDs) for the next 6 weeks. GWDDs represent a combination of heating and cooling degree days and natural gas geographic usage patterns to generate a temperature-dependent projection of relative natural gas demand. The GFS model updates three times daily, the ECMWF and CFS models twice daily, and the ECMWF-EPS model twice weekly. All attempts will be made to issue new updates timely, but data may be delayed. The data below is numerical only and processed according to proprietary algorithms as sharing ECMWF maps is disallowed.

44-Day Hybrid Forecast

44-Day Hybrid Forecast & Natural Gas Demand

Daily Natural Gas Storage Statistics

Model Spread Statistics

4 different models make up the Hybrid Model, the short term GFS and ECMWF ENS and the long-term ECMWF-EPS and CFSv2. Naturally, these models do not always agree and present slightly different solutions to the temperature outlook, which translates to a spread in projected natural gas demand. The data below shows the level of disagreement in these models and the degree to which it impacts gas demand and storage over the next 44 days.

14-Day Near-Term Forecast

Day 15-44 Long-Term Forecast