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Natural Gas Opens The Week Flat While Oil Gives Up Geopolitical Premium On US Storage & Global Demand Concerns; EIA Drilling Productivity Report Shows Continued Slowdown In Drilling, But Is It Enough? Computer Models Continue To Trend Towards Warm Start To July; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today On Rain-Cooled East & Central Plains


Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Natural gas opened the week flat, trading down less than 1 cent to hold at $2.39/MMBTU. Investors seem to be caught in a bit of a conundrum. On the one hand, the commodity is trading at its lowest in more than 3 years and is down 21% from 2018. Additionally, temperatures will steadily warm over the next week and looking to be above-average for the final week of the month and at least for the first week of July. On the other hand, this will not immediately translate to bullish inventory builds. While powerburn is seeing sizable year-over-year gains, the temperature-adjusted supply/demand imbalance is still around 3 BCF/day loose year-over-year thanks to large gains in production such that neutral to even modestly warmer-than-normal temperatures will still result in slightly bearish builds. It is likely this underlying looseness that is preventing a sustained bounce in prices...for now. Should the supply/demand imbalance continue to tighten and temperatures warm as expected, it will be...

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