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Natural Gas Flat Near 2-Year Lows After Uninspiring EIA Storage Report & Warming Long-Term Models While Crude Oil Rises On US-China Trade War Optimism; Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens On Recovering LNG Feedgas & Discounted Prices; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Arctic Air Expands, Driving A Return To Bullish Weekly Storage Withdrawals


Friday, February 15, 2019
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for February 2-8, the EIA announced Thursday morning that natural gas inventories rose by +78 BCF. This was equal to my projection and was a very bearish 82 BCF smaller than the 5-year average -160 BCF draw. The bearishness of the draw was led by the South Central Region which saw an ugly +4 BCF regional storage injection versus the 5-year average -44 BCF draw, driven by consistently warmer-than-normal temperatures as well as sharply lower LNG exports from Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi due to maintenance and fog. All five regions remain at large storage deficits versus the 5-year average that exceed 8%, but three out of the five are now at year-over-year surpluses. Interestingly, the South Central Region has the largest absolute deficit versus the 5-year average (-118 BCF), but also the largest year-over-year surplus (+47 BCF) of any region. With the -78 BCF draw, natural gas inventories fell to 1882 BCF while the storage deficit versus the...

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