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Natural Gas Rally Fails As Profit-Takers Step In While Oil Snaps Losing Streak With Lukewarm Bounce; A Busy Day For The EIA: Agency Expected To Announce Bearish Oil And Natural Gas Inventory Builds In Twin Storage Reports Today


Thursday, October 17, 2019
Natural gas staged a sharp intra-day reversal to finish with its first loss this week. The front-month November 2019 contract gapped up more than 1% to $2.38/MMBTU but then the profit-takers stepped in and the commodity ultimately finished the session down 1.5% to $2.30/MMBTU. Of note, the 1X ETF UNG began its monthly rollover Wednesday, successfully rolling 25% of its natural gas holdings from the November 2019 contract to the December 2019 contract ahead of the front-month's expiration in 10 days. The rollover will likely be complete by Monday. The December 2019 contract settled at $2.50/MMBTU on Wednesday, meaning that this rollover is going down into a 21 cent contango. This is comparable to that experienced by UGAZ when it rolled last week. This effectively amounts to selling and buying high and will contribute to the ETF's long-term underperformance as these sort of rollovers have for years. It is for this reason that I stick to almost exclusively to shorting the inverse leverag...

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