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Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:
Thursday, April 18, 2024
A Win For The Bulls: Natural Gas Inches Lower But Rebounds Off Early Lows On Continued Production Declines As Investors Shrug Off Canadian Pipeline Non-Event; Oil Prices Fall After EIA-Reported Crude Oil Inventory Build; EIA Projected To Announce Modestly Bullish +46 BCF Injection In Today’s Natural Gas Storage Report; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Colder Temperatures Expand Across The Plains
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Natural Gas Sinks To Open The Week As Demand Losses Outweigh Slumping Supplies; Near-Term Downside Risk Outweighs Upside Potential, But Low Prices Are The Cure to Low Prices; Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today As Active Weather Pattern Ramps Up Across The Heartland, But Another Bearish Injection Is Still Expected
Monday, April 15, 2024
Natural Steadies Itself On Friday After Thursday Sell-Off To Log Fourth Straight Weekly Gain; Lower Production & Potential Mid-April Cold Snap Provide Support, But LNG Export Swoon Loosens Imbalances & Introduces Bearish Near-Term Catalyst; Gas Demand To Rise Today After Weekend Lows As Temperatures Moderate Across The Northern Tier, But Bearish Daily Build Still Expected
Friday, April 12, 2024
Natural Gas Registers Largest Daily Loss In 6 Weeks After EIA Storage Injection Misses Expectations; Sell-Off Flips Front-Month Contract To Fundamental Undervaluation, But Later Contracts Still Overpriced On Aggressive Storage Expectations; Bullish Storage Injection Projected For This Week; Late-Season Cold Snap Possible Late Next Week, But Prolonged Bearish Demand Comes First
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies For Fourth Day On Soft Production & Higher LNG Exports (Before Late-Day Downward Revision); Oil Prices Gain On Middle East Tension Despite Bearish EIA Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish +11 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection Today; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady As Unseasonably Mild Temperatures Dominate Lower 48
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies To 1-Month High On Production Drop & LNG Export Gain, But Overvaluation is Again Approaching 2024 Highs; Oil Prices Slump Again As Middle East Negotiations Continue; EIA Expected To Announce Neutral Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today With Double Digit Daily Storage Injection As Northern Tier Remains Mild
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies To One-Week High On Sub-100 BCF/Day Production Despite Headwinds From Bearish Catalysts; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Daily Storage Injections Near Double Digits
Monday, April 8, 2024
Natural Gas Edges Higher On Friday But Prices Could Face Early Pressure This Week On Uninspiring Temperature Outlook & Weaker LNG Exports, Even As Production Slides Under 100 BCF/Day; 2X ETF Rollover Begins; February Lows Likely To Hold, But $2/MMBTU Looks Less Likely For May Contract; Gas Demand To Extend Weekend Decline Today As Eastern US Warms
Friday, April 5, 2024
Sell The News: Natural Gas Prices Pull Back After EIA’s Bullish, But In-Line Storage Withdrawal Marks Seasonal Minimum; Gas Demand To Peak Today As Unseasonable Chill Dominates The East; Storage Surplus To Drop Below +600 BCF Next Week, But Temperature Outlook To Pivot From Bullish To Bearish By Mid-Month
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Natural Gas Snaps 3-Session Winning Streak As Profit-Takers Step In; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish -40 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Oil Prices Record Another 6-Month High Despite Surprise Crude Inventory Build; Natural Gas Daily Storage Withdrawals To Return Today As Unseasonably Chilly Airmass Expands Eastward
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Natural Gas Rises For Third Straight Session On Softer Production & Colder-Than-Normal Start To April, Even As LNG Exports Lag; Gas Prices Approaching Near-Term Upside Target; Oil Prices Rise On Geopolitical Tension Ahead Of Expected Bullish EIA Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Chilly Early-April Airmass Expands Across The East
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies To 3-Week High On Cold Start To April & Production Drop; Rangebound Trading Still Expected Amidst Storage Glut; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Late-Season Storm System Gears Up Across The Great Lakes But Daily Storage Withdrawals Still Likely By Later This Week
Monday, April 1, 2024
Natural Gas Enters Holiday Weekend On A High Note Thanks To Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Report But Market Languishes With Offsetting Catalysts; Storage Surpluses To Narrow, But Is It Fast Enough? Gas Demand To Rise This Week With Brief Return To Withdrawals Possible By The End Of The Week Thanks To Late-Season Cold Snap
Thursday, March 28, 2024
May 2024 Natural Gas Contract Kicks Off Status As Front-Month Contract With A Thud On Weakening Temperature Outlook & LNG Exports; Oil Prices Register Small Loss After Bearish, But Better-Than-Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Neutral -26 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Temperatures Begin To Warm Ahead Of Seasonal Nadir Tomorrow
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
April Natural Gas Contract Completes Spiral Into Expiration To Re-Challenge 3-Year Lows; Oil Prices Dip On Profit-Taking Ahead Of Expected Bearish EIA Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady Today As Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures Persist Across The Heartland
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Natural Gas Prices Lag Ahead Of April Expiration On Tuesday; Early-April Cold Snap Continues To Support Late-Season Heating Demand While Soft Production Will Favor Tight Imbalances This Summer, Eroding 8-Year High Storage Surplus; Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today As Unseasonably Cool Conditions Expand Across The Central US
Monday, March 25, 2024
Natural Gas Finishes The Week Flat As Commodity Enters Rangebound Trading Pattern; Gas Demand To Dip Slightly Today As Powerful Heartland Storm System Dominates The Weather Pattern
Friday, March 22, 2024
EIA Disappoints With First Weekly Storage Injection Of The Season, But Natural Gas Prices Register Only Small Loss In Resilient Session; Gas Prices Can’t Breakdown Or Break Out; Demand To Fall Today To Wrap Up The Week; Neutral Storage Withdrawal Expected This Week; Broad Great Plains Storm System To Dominate The Pattern Next Week, Bringing Heavy Snow & Unseasonably Cool Temperatures
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Natural Gas Pulls Back Ahead Of Today’s EIA Storage Report; Oil Prices Fall After Bearish, But Better Than Expected, EIA Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Temperatures Cool Across The Northeast
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Natural Gas Edges Higher For Second Session On Colder-Than-Normal Near-Term Temperature Outlook; Oil Prices Reach 5-Month Highs On Russian Refinery Attacks; Bearish EIA Petroleum Status Report Expected Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today s Warming East Outweighs Reinforcing Cold Air Across The Northern Tier
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Natural Gas Logs Modest Monday Gain As Commodity Settles Into Rangebound Trading Pattern; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today As Warming Midwest Offsets Cooling Deep South, But Another Bullish Withdrawal Is Still Expected; Inventories Projected To (Finally) Fall below 2300 BCF Today
Monday, March 18, 2024
Natural Gas Falls To Wrap Up Bearish Week, But Colder-Than-Normal March Temperature Outlook & Lower Year-Over-Year Supply Should Support Near-Term Upside; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today With Bullish Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected As Chilly Temperatures Expand Across The East; The Natural Gas Storage Surplus Has Peaked
Friday, March 15, 2024
Natural Gas Snaps 6-Session Losing Skid After EIA Reports Better-Than-Expected Withdrawal & LNG Exports Could Be Poised To Jump; Near-Term Gas Prices Likely To Remain Rangebound With A Bullish Bias; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Ohio Valley Cools; Rare Bullish Withdrawal Possible Next Week As Cooler Temperatures Return
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Natural Gas Slumps To 6-Straight Loss & Closes Back In On 3-Year Lows; Oil Prices Rally After Larger-Than-Expected EIA Gasoline Inventory Drawdown; EIA Projected To Announce Very Bearish +2 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Mid-April Warmth Dominates The Ohio Valley & East
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Natural Gas Logs Fifth Straight Loss Despite CNX Production Cut & EIA’s Downward Supply Revision; 5-Session Losing Streak Cuts Into Overvaluation; Oil Prices Drop But Bullish EIA Petroleum Status Report Expected Today; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today As Unseasonable Heartland Warmth Drives Bearish Daily Storage Injection
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Natural Gas Records Fourth Straight Loss On Milder Temperature Outlook, Flat Production, & Lower LNG Exports; Pullback Continues, But Prices Unlikely To Retest Lows; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Builds Eastward With Bearish Daily Storage Injection Expected
Monday, March 11, 2024
Natural Gas Records Rangebound Week After Big Rally, But I Give The Bulls A Modest Edge Here On Lower Production & Potential Mid-March Cooldown; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Builds Across The Heartland With Near-Average Daily Storage Withdrawal Projected
Friday, March 8, 2024
Sell The News: Natural Gas Falls Sharply In Overdue Pullback As Investors Unimpressed With EIA Storage Withdrawal; Rangebound Trading Still Likely As Investors Wait For Production Drop To Impact Storage; Historic Weekly Storage Injection Possible In Next Thursday’s EIA Report; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply This Weekend On Quick Cold Snap, But It Won’t Last (Again)
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Natural Gas Pulls Back On Profit-Taking While Oil Prices Gain After Better-Than-Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report; Could We See A Mid-March Cold Snap? EIA Projected To Announce -37 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Closely-Watched Storage Report
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Defying Gravity: Natural Gas Finds A Way To Settle In The Black After Late-Session Rally Even As Overvaluation Widens; Oil Prices Dip Ahead Of Expected Neutral Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Edge Slightly Higher Today With Tiny Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected As Unseasonable Warmth Continues Slow Retreat
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies To 1-Month High On EQT Product Cut Pledge—And On Observed Production Declines—But Prices Are Becoming Overheated Here; Gas Demand Poised To Rise Slightly Today On Cooler Midwest, But Another Bearish Daily Storage Injection Is Still Expected
Monday, March 4, 2024
Natural Logs First Weekly Gain Since January As Bullish Production Drop Overpowers Mild Temperature Outlook & 8-Year High Storage Surplus; Bulls Have Returned To The Playing Field But Shouldn’t Rest On Their Laurels; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today But Another Bearish Daily Storage Injection Is Still Expected; Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average Projected To Top +600 BCF Today
Friday, March 1, 2024
Natural Gas Pulls Back Slightly After Bearish, But Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Withdrawal; Third Highest Seasonal Minimum Storage Level Expected This Spring; Rangebound Trading With An Upward Bias Expected Near-Term; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Quick-Hitting Cold Snap Retreats; Historic Storage Injection Possible Next Week
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies In April’s First Front-Month Session On Continued Production Drops & Hints Of Cooler Mid-March Temperatures; Overvaluations Versus Fair Price Widening; Oil Falls Slightly After Bearish EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish-92 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today On Short-Lived Cold Snap
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Front Month Natural Gas Contract Slumps Into Expiration But Later Contracts Rally As Gas Prices Find Themselves Sandwiched Between Bullish & Bearish Catalysts; Oil Rises On Potential Extension Of OPEC Production Cuts But Bearish Crude Build Is Likely In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand Poised To Rise Sharply Today As Potent Cold Front Drives Impressive Day-Over-Day Cooldown
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies On Monday As Production Drop Outweighs Record Warmth Among Investors; Options Expirations Shenanigans On Tap Today As March Contract Set To Expire; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today With Rare February Storage Injection Expected But Encroaching Cold Front Will Soon Bring A Brief Taste Of Winter
Monday, February 26, 2024
Natural Gas Falls On Friday As Post-Chesapeake Pullback Continues; Bottom Still Likely In As Investor Focus Pivots From Weather To Supply; Choppy, Rangebound Trading Expected But Watch Out For Another Short Squeeze As Speculative Short Exposure Reaches 4-Year High; Daily Storage Injection Likely Today As Record Warmth Builds Into The Heartland
Friday, February 23, 2024
Natural Gas Drops, But Trims Losses In Afternoon Recovery As Very Bearish Temperatures Outlook & Storage Glut Is Countered By Lower Production & Lingering Chesapeake CapEx Cuts Optimism; Projected Season-Ending Storage Levels To Be The Third Highest On Record; Gas Demand To Inch Slightly Higher Today; But A Bearish Weekly Withdrawal Is Likely; Spring-Like Warmth Next Week To Drive Daily Storage Injections
Thursday, February 22, 2024
The Bottom Is In: CHK Plays OPEC & Sends Natural Gas Blasting Off 3-Year Lows; Expect A Period Of Rangebound Trading As Storage Glut Likely To Persist; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -71 BCF Storage Withdrawal In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall To Weekly Low Today As Unseasonably Mild Temperatures Spread Eastward
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Natural Gas Prices Slip To 3+ Year Low Tuesday After Bearish Holiday Weekend Temperature Trends, But The Real Fireworks Happen After The Close; Bottoming Is Never Pretty—And This Is What It Looks Like; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Spring-Like Temperatures Expand Across The Heartland
Natural Gas Falls Edges Lower For Eighth Straight Loss To Fresh 3+ Year Low, But Chalk It Up As A Win For The Bulls After Ugly EIA Storage Miss; Storage Levels Now Projected To Bottom At Third Highs Level On Record; Gas Demand To Rise Today And This Weekend On Quick Hitting Cold Snap, But It Won’t Last
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Natural Gas Stretches Losing Streak To Seven As Bearish Sentiment Dominates The Market; When Will The Bounce Come? Oil Prices Drop After Disappointing EIA Crude Inventory Build; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +66 BCF Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Warmth Expands Eastward; Storage Surplus Projected To Top +400 BCF By This Afternoon
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Natural Gas Prices Slump For 6th Straight Session On Absent Winter; Was This A Record Low For Natural Gas? Oil Prices Defy Broad Markets, Gain On Middle East Tension; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build But Bullish Refined Product Drawdowns In Today’s Status Report; Natural Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today On Cool East & Rockies But Unseasonably Warm Heartland
Monday, February 12, 2024
Natural Gas Slides To Fresh 3+ Year Lows As Prices Record Second Straight Double Digit Percent Weekly Loss; Gas Prices Likely To Face Additional Early-Week Selling Pressure After Forecast Cold Fizzles (Again) Over The Weekend; When Will Production Freeze-Offs Come Into Play? Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Temperatures Cool Across The South, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Is Still Likely
Monday, February 12, 2024
Natural Gas Slides To Fresh 3+ Year Lows As Prices Record Second Straight Double Digit Percent Weekly Loss; Gas Prices Likely To Face Additional Early-Week Selling Pressure After Forecast Cold Fizzles (Again) Over The Weekend; When Will Production Freeze-Offs Come Into Play? Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Temperatures Cool Across The South, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Is Still Likely
Friday, February 9, 2024
Bulls Increase Stranglehold On Natural Gas Sector After EIA Withdrawal Fails To Impress & Prices Drop To Fresh 3-Year Low; Near-Term Temperature Outlook Pivots Milder As Models Retreat From Consistently Colder-Than-Normal Mid-To-Late February Outlook; Generational Buying Opportunity Coming, But Beleaguered Bulls Need A Catalyst To Stop The Bleeding First
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Natural Gas Breaks Below $2/MMBTU To 3-Year Low As Bulls Can’t Find A Catalyst Despite Widening Fundamental Undervaluation; Oil Prices Rise After EIA Reports Bullish Refined Product Drawdowns; EIA Projected To Announce Very Bearish -74 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Expands Eastward; Gas Demand Set To (Finally) Bottom In Three Days
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Too Little, Too Late? Natural Gas Sinks Towards 3-Year Low Even As Mid-February Outlook Continues To Look Colder-Than-Normal; Oil Prices Rally Ahead Of Expected Crude Oil Inventory Build Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Unseasonable Warmth Expands Eastward; Gas Demand Expected To Bottom This Weekend
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Hurry Up & Wait: Forecast Doesn’t Give The Bulls Or The Bears What They Want; Investors Pause & Await Mid-February Temperature Trends; Gas Demand To Edge Higher To Weekly High Today On Cooler Southeast & West Before Slumping Into The Weekend
Monday, February 5, 2024
Natural Gas Logs Small Gain As Investors Eye Mid-February Pattern Shift, But Hurdles Remain For A Sustained Rally; Speculative Short Positions Spike, But Bulls Don’t Throw In The Towel; Typical El Nino: Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today On Cool South & Stormy West, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Still Likely As Upper Midwest Remains Unseasonably Mild
Friday, February 2, 2024
Undervaluations Be Damned, Natural Gas Falls To 10-Month Low After EIA Withdrawal Fails To Satisfy & Early February Temperature Outlook Remains Unseasonably Mild; Price Action Dependent On Mid-To-Late February Pattern Shift; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today, But Very Bearish Weekly Withdrawal Expected; Storage Surplus Expected To Top +300 BCF By Next Week As January Thaw Extends Into February
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Natural Gas Trades Higher For Second Session In A Row As Soft Production & Improving Temperature Outlook Bolster Sentiment; This Is Bottoming Action, But It Still Might Be Too Soon For A Bottom; Oil Slumps After Disappointing EIA Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish -202 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall To Near-Term Low Today As Unseasonable Warmth Dominates The Lower 48
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Dip Buyers Test The Waters In Rare Green Session Even As February Temperature Outlook Stays Unseasonably Mild; Have We Seen The Bottom? Don’t Count On It; Oil Rises On IMF Upgrades & Middle East Tensions; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Exceptional Warmth Expands Across The Heartland
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