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Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:
Thursday, March 23, 2023
Natural Gas Swiftly Gives Up Tuesday’s Gains As Investors Look Past Cool Weather To Robust Inventories & Supply/Demand Mismatch; Oil Prices Rise After Better-Than-Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce -79 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today In First Of A String Of Modestly Bullish Weekly Draws; Gas Demand To Fall Today With Daily Storage Injection Expected—But Builds Won’t Last
Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Natural Gas Bounces On Dip-Buying & Cooling Trend In The Near Term Models—But It Will Take More To Sustain The Rally; Oil Prices Snap Skid Ahead Of Slightly Bearish Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today On Milder Northeast & Deep South With Daily Withdrawal Falling Below The 5-Year Average
Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Sell First, Ask Questions Later; Natural Gas Fades In Listless Trading Session Even As Undervaluation Grows; Temperature Outlook Remains Favorable, But Supply/Demand Imbalance Is A Question Mark Heading Into Spring; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Much Warmer Temperature Return To The Northeast
Monday, March 20, 2023
Natural Gas Rebounds On Cooler March Outlook; Oil Prices Tumble On Hawkish Fed Outlook; Rangebound Trading Increasingly Likely Near-Term; EIA Expected To Announce First Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown Of 2023 In Today’s Status Report; Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today With Inventories Finally Projected To Fall Below 2000 BCF Early Tomorrow Morning
Thursday, March 16, 2023
Natural Gas Sinks With Broader Markets & Moderating Late-March Temperature Outlook; Gas Prices Near The Bottom Of Expected Trading Range; EIA Projected To Announce Mildly Bearish -62 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Temperatures Temporarily Warm Ahead Of Arctic Cold Front
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Wednesday, March 5, 2023
Natural Gas Prices Take A Breather In Quiet Day And Possible Preview Of Neutral, Rangebound Trading Ahead; Oil Prices Slump To 3-Month Lows On Bank Failures & Domestic Demand Concerns; EIA Expected To Announce Small Crude Oil Inventory Build But Bullish Refined Product Draws In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Temperatures Moderate, But The Dip Will Be Short-Lived
Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Natural Gas Spikes On Technical Bounce & Colder-Than-Normal Near-Term Temperature Outlook; Natural Gas Inventories Now Projection To Bottom Below 1750 BCF—What Does That Mean For Long-Term Storage And Price? Natural Gas Demand To Peak For The Weak Today As Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures—And A Late-Season Nor’Easter--Dominate The East
Monday, March 13, 2023
Natural Gas Plunges Nearly 20% After Temperatures Moderate; Colder-Than-Normal Temperatures Still Expected For Mid-To-Late March—Can Gas Prices Capitalize? Natural Gas Demand Holds Steady Over The Weekend But Is Set To Ramp Up This Week As The East Cools
Friday, March 10, 2023
Natural Gas Fades Despite Larger-Than-Expected Storage Withdrawal; Can Inventories Fall Below 1800 BCF Before The End Of The Heating Season? Natural Gas Sector Healthier Than Last Month, But There’s Still Work To Do; Gas Demand Set To Ramp Up Into Next Week As Colder Temperatures Arrive Across The East, Cutting Into The Storage Surplus
Thursday, March 9, 2023
Natural Gas Reverses Lower On Weaker LNG Exports & Cold—But Not Cold Enough—Temperature Outlook; EIA Reports First Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown Of The Year, But Doesn’t Impress Traders; EIA Projected To Announce Moderately Bearish -74 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Dip Today As Milder Conditions Temporarily Return The Ohio Valley; Realtime Inventories Finally Fall Below 2000 BCF
Wednesday, March 8, 2023
Natural Gas Rebounds On Cooler March Outlook; Oil Prices Tumble On Hawkish Fed Outlook; Rangebound Trading Increasingly Likely Near-Term; EIA Expected To Announce First Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown Of 2023 In Today’s Status Report; Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today With Inventories Finally Projected To Fall Below 2000 BCF Early Tomorrow Morning
Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Natural Gas Tumbles In Healthy & Overdue Pullback After March Outlook Moderates; Record LNG Exports, Coal-To-Gas Switching, & Still Colder-Than-Normal Temperature Forecast To Support Price Floor; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Cooler Conditions Overspread The Northeast With Near-Average Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected
Monday, March 6, 2023
Natural Gas Soars 23% For Second Straight Weekly Gain Thanks To Record LNG exports & Unseasonably Cold March Outlook; Overvalued & Overbought, Sharp Pullback Likely This Week As Early-To-Mid March Temperature Outlook Moderates; Storage Surpluses Likely To Peak Today As Mild Temperatures Dominate The East Ahead Of Pattern Shift
Friday, March 3, 2023
Overvalued & Overbought, Natural Gas Snaps 6-Session Winning Streak, But Losses Blunted By Larger-Than-Expected Storage Withdrawal & 2023-High LNG Feedgas Volumes to Freeport; Can Natural Gas Storage Finish The Season Below 1800 BCF? Gas Demand To Remain Very Soft Over The Weekend, But Withdrawals Begin To Ramp Up Dramatically Next Week As Pattern Shift Arrives
Thursday, March 2, 2023
Natural Gas Rallies For First Six-Session Winning Streak In Nearly 2 Years But Prices Remain Vulnerable To A Pullback; EIA Projected To Announce -72 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal In Today’s Report; Oil Rallies On Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Oil Inventory Build, But Storage Still Rises To 22-Month Highs; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Year-Over-Year Surplus Clears +500 BCF
Wednesday, March 1, 2023
ECMWF To The Rescue: Natural Gas Recovers From Morning Sell-Off To Rally For Fifth Straight Gain On Colder Tuesday Afternoon Model Run; Natural Overvalued & Due For Near-Term Pullback, But Prices Have Likely Bottomed; 10th Straight Crude Oil Inventory Build Expected For Today’s EIA Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Inch Lower Today As The Northeast Warms With -500 BCF Year-Over-Year Storage Surplus Likely By Tomorrow Morning
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Natural Gas Soars For A Fourth Straight Session To 1-Month High As 1-Week Gains Top +30% But A Near-Term Retracement Is Likely As Prices Overshoot Fair Value; It’s The GFS Versus The ECMWF For The Future Of The Rally; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As The Northeast Sees Most Significant Snow Event Of the Year While Hot Temperatures Across The South Drive Early Cooling Demand, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Is Still Likely
Monday, February 27, 2023
Bottoming Action: Natural Gas Surges 18% In 3-Session Winning Streak As March Temperature Outlook Cools; Prices Will Live & Die By The Weather For The Next Month; CFTC Resumes Money Manager Holdings Data As Natural Gas Long & Short Interest Both Rise—Here’s Why That Matters; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Mild Temperatures Expand Across The Central US Ahead Of Late-Week Pattern Shift
Friday, February 24, 2023
Natural Gas Rallies For Second Day As Investors Look Past Bearish EIA-Reported Withdrawal & Focus On Colder-Than-Normal March Temperature Outlook & Rising LNG Export Demand At Freeport; Rare Bullish Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected Today As Much Cooler Temperatures Sweep Eastward
Thursday, February 23, 2023
Buckle Up, The Bottoming Process Will Be Choppy : Natural Gas Rallies On Oversold Bounce & Freeport Approval, But Can’t Hold Onto The Bulk Of Its Gains Thanks To Milder Temperature Outlook; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -70 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal & Another Big Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today’s Twin Reports; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Arctic Airmass Advances Eastward
Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Bearish Paradise: Natural Gas Plunges To 2-Year Lows & Prepares To Breach $2/MMBTU Even As Freeport Gains Restart Approval & March Temperature Outlook Trends Colder; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today On Heartland Arctic Air But Unseasonably Mild East Ensures Another Bearish Withdrawal; Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Averages Nears Peak
Tuesday, February 21, 2023
Natural Gas Falters To 2-Year Lows On Rising Storage Surplus & Mild Temperature Outlook; Natural Gas Supply/Demand Tightening But Do Investors Care Yet?; Here’s What It Will Take For Prices To Put In A Bottom; Gas Demand To Rise This Week As Much Colder Air Shifts Eastward Amidst Active Weather Pattern, But Potent Southeast Ridge Will Continue To Keep Arctic Air In Check
Friday, February 17, 2023
Natural Gas Fades To 2-Year Lows After EIA Reports Uninspiring & Bearish-100 BCF Storage Withdrawal, Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalances Continue To Tighten But, Without Cooperation From The Weather, Surpluses Will Continue To Climb; Natural Gas Demand Set To Spike Today On Much Colder Airmass; Temperatures To Quickly Modify But Traders Need To Monitor Late February Outlook For Potential Pattern Shift
Thursday, February 16, 2023
Oil Prices Recover After Huge Inventory Build On Expectations It’s A “One-Off” Event; Natural Gas Can’t Escape The Weather In Tepid Trading Session; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -105 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Have Investors Come To Anticipate Larger-Than-Expected Withdrawals—And Does It Matter For Price? Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Quick-Hitting Colder Airmass Shifts East
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