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Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Monday, March 1, 2021
Natural Gas Extends Losing Streak To 7-Straight Sessions, But, Now Undervalued, The Commodity Due For A Bounce As Temperature Outlook Trends Colder; Natural Gas Production Erases Freeze-Off Induced Losses, But Stalled Rig Count Means Production Likely Won’t See Meaningful Gains This Year; Gas Demand To Jump Today On Quick-Hitting Shot Of Colder Temperatures



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Friday, February 26, 2021
Natural Gas Extends Losses On Mild Temperature Outlook Despite The EIA Reporting The Second Largest Weekly Withdrawal On Record; Inventories Set To Bottom At Bullish--But Comfortabl--Levels In 5-6 Weeks, But Next Autumn’s Peak Could Be Very Tight; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today With Slightly Bullish Withdrawal Expected To Wrap Up The Week


Thursday, February 25, 2021
Natural Gas Drops Again As Warmer-Than-Normal Outlook Sours Sentiment, But E&Ps Vault Higher As Bullish Set-Up Remains In Place; Oil Prices Surge To New Yearly High As EIA Reports Only Mildly Bearish Build Despite Large Weather-Driven Drop In Demand; EIA Projected To Announce Historic—But Highly Uncertain—339 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Rise On Quick-Hitting Short Of Colder Air


Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Natural Gas Continues Slide As Warming Temperatures Dampen Sentiment, But Upside Potential Outweighs Downside Risk At These Levels; WTI Reaches 1-Year High Intraday But Fades In The Afternoon Ahead Of Today’s Expected Crude Oil Inventory Build; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today As Mild Temperatures Dominate Lower 48


Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Natural Gas Prices Fall Sharply To Start The Week As Mild Temperatures Overspread The Lower 48 Suppressing Heating Demand While Production Stages V-Shaped Recovery; Don’t Fret The Noise: The Damage Has Been Done & The Bull Market Is Here To Stay; Gas Demand To Fall Further Today As Most Areas East Of The Rockies Will See Warmer-Than-Normal Readings


Monday, February 22, 2021
Natural Gas Set To Pull Back To Start The Week As Temperatures Warm & Investors Take Profits After Last Week’s Breakout, But New Storage Deficit Should Limit Losses; Bears Still Avoiding Natural Gas Short Trade; Gas Demand To Drop Again Today As Seasonal Temperatures Dominate Lower 48, But Bullish Withdrawal Still Expected


Friday, February 19, 2021
Natural Gas Pulls Back After EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Withdrawal—But The Bull Market Is Alive & Well; Oil Prices Retreat Despite Big Crude Storage Withdrawal & New Storage Deficit As Investors Take Profits Across The Energy Sector; Another Highly Uncertain, But Likely Historic, Withdrawal In Excess Of -300 BCF Likely For This Week; Gas Demand To Weaken Next Week, But Another Bullish Draw Likely As The Cold Won’t Go Without A Fight


Thursday, February 18, 2021
Natural Gas Jumps To 2021 High In Afternoon Rally While WTI Reaches 11-Month High On Supply Disruptions; EIA Expected To Announce Exceptionally Bullish—But Highly Uncertain—262 BCF Natural Gas Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; In Delayed Report, EIA Also Expected To Announce Bullish Crude Oil Draw As Inventories Near 5-Year Average; Gas Demand To Fall Today, But Realtime Storage Drops Below 2020 Lows


Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Natural Gas Soars After Holiday Weekend Drama As Historic Cold Drives Massive Storage Withdrawals, Rolling Blackouts, Production Freeze-Offs, & LNG Export Shut-Ins; Where Do Natural Gas Prices Go From Here? Realtime Inventories To Near 2000 BCF Tonight After A Fourth Straight -50+ BCF Daily Storage Withdrawal Today


Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Natural Gas Soars After Holiday Weekend Drama As Historic Cold Drives Massive Storage Withdrawals, Rolling Blackouts, Production Freeze-Offs, & LNG Export Shut-Ins; Where Do Natural Gas Prices Go From Here? Realtime Inventories To Near 2000 BCF Tonight After A Fourth Straight -50+ BCF Daily Storage Withdrawal Today


Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Power Grid Armageddon: Record Cold Drives Rolling Texas Blackouts While Natural Gas Regional Cash Prices Surge Above $600/MMBTU In Wild Holiday Weekend, Even As Futures Trading Remains Comparatively Tame; Can March 2021 Front-Month Hold Above $3.00/MMBTU? Can This Week’s Withdrawal Set A New All-Time High Above -355 BCF? Lots To Discuss In Active Energy Sector


Friday, February 12, 2021
Natural Gas Gives Up Wednesday’s Gains In Volatile Thursday Trading Session After Smaller-Than-Expected EIA Storage Withdrawal & Warmer Late February Outlook; Gas Demand To Surge Today As Arctic Air Makes Its Presence Felt Across the Central US; Only The Second -300 BCF Storage Withdrawal Projected For Next Week As Historic Cold & Snow Peak


Thursday, February 11, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies Sharply Into The Afternoon To Approach $3.00/MMBTU After Computer Models Cool; Oil Holds At 13-Month High After EIA announces Very Bullish Inventory Drawdown; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish -179 BCF Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Ramp Up Today as Arctic Air Plunges South Into Texas


Wednesday, February 10, 2021
Natural Gas Fades As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Moderates, But Arctic Air Still Dominates—And Will Dominate—Lower 48; Near-Term Prices Deceptively Sluggish, But 2021-22 Bull Market Story Intact; Natural Gas Inventories Projected To Fall Below 2012 Minimum Today As Demand Rises; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish -3.5 MMbbl Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown Today As Inventories Near 5-Year Average


Tuesday, February 9, 2021
Why Aren’t Natural Gas Prices Rising Despite The Favorable Environment? Natural Gas Struggles To Convert Arctic Outbreak Into Gains, Even As E&Ps Rally; Gas Demand To Drop To A Weekly “Low” Today On Eastern Seaboard Warm-Up, But Demand Set To Spike This Weekend As Exceptional Cold Prepares To Surge Southward


Monday, February 8, 2021
Near-Term Computer Models Oscillate As Magnitude & Extent Of Arctic Blast Still Uncertain; Natural Gas Should Trade Above $3.00/MMBTU Near-Term—But 2018-Style Spike Above $4.00/MMBTU Gas Is A Pipedream, For Now; Natural Gas Investors May Hesitate To Buy, But Nobody Wants To Be Short; Gas Demand To Retreat From Weekend Highs But Strongly Bullish Withdrawal Still Likely


Friday, February 5, 2021
Natural Gas Soars After EIA Reports Bullish Storage Withdrawal & Computer Models Trend Colder; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Arctic Air Overspreads The Great Plains; The Season’s First -200 BCF Withdrawal Likely Next Week As Reinforcing Shot Of Arctic Air Expected To Boost Demand


Wednesday, February 3, 2021
Natural Gas Rally Fizzles (For The Moment) After Tuesday Afternoon Computer Models Moderate But Arctic Outbreak Remains On Track For Early-To-Mid February; Oil Prices Tap 1-Year High Ahead Of Expected Very Bullish EIA Petroleum Status Report For Today; Gas Demand Will Dip Slightly Today As Temperatures Warm Across The Plains Ahead Of Arctic Outbreak


Tuesday, February 2, 2021
What A Difference A Year Makes: Natural Gas Prices Spike 11% To Push Year-Over-Year Gains To +50% As Arctic Airmass Has The Potential To Re-Structure The Sector; $3.00/MMBTU Gas Prices Beckon—But Investors Remain Anxious About Another Forecasting Bust; Natural Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Nor’Easter Winds Down


Monday, February 1, 2021
The Next 2 Weeks Will Be The Most Important For Natural Gas This Winter; Gas Prices Poised To Rally To Start The Week As Computer Models Trend Towards Early-February Arctic Blast, But History Of Forecast Fails Will Keep Investors Skeptical & Nervous; Bullish Daily Storage Withdrawals Expected Each Day This Week As Cool Conditions To Persist Across The East In The Wake Of Big Nor’Easter


Friday, January 29, 2021
Natural Gas Falters After Disappointing EIA Storage Data, But Rallies Into the Close As Early-February Temperature Outlook Continues To Trend Colder; Improving Season-Ending Storage Projections To Propel Natural Gas Sector Heading Into The Summer; Gas Demand To Dip Slightly Today, But Chilly Northeast Will Ensure A Bullish Daily Withdrawal


Thursday, January 28, 2021
Natural Gas Surges On Building Support For Colder Pattern As February 2021 Contract Expires Above $2.75/MMBTU; EIA Reports Largest Weekly Crude Oil inventory Drawdown In 6 Months But Oil Prices Can’t Take Advantage As Broad Markets Sell-Off; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -137 BCF Weekly Natural Gas Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Surge To 2021 High Today On East Cooldown


Wednesday, January 27, 2021
Natural Gas Extends Rally As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Continues To Pivot Towards Colder Pattern; Oil Dips Slightly Ahead Of Today’s Expected Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Southeast Cools & Heartland Remains Chilly; Bullish Daily Storage Withdrawals Expected For Each Of The Next 14 Days With Year-Over-Year Storage Deficit Possible Within 2 Weeks


Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Natural Gas Spikes Nearly 6% In Largest Year-To-Date Rally As February Looks Increasingly Cool & LNG Exports Hold Above 11 BCF/Day; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Plains Cools But Bearish Daily Draw Still Expected On Spring-Like East; Realtime Inventories To Drop Below 2800 BCF This Morning While Storage Surpluses Likely To Peak Today Ahead Of Stronger Late-Week Demand


Monday, January 25, 2021
Natural Gas Prices Set To Open Higher Today On Colder Temperature Outlook & Recovering LNG Exports; Gas Demand To Fall Today On Spring-Like South, But Colder Temperatures Later This Week To Drive Consistently Bullish Withdrawals Heading Into February; Year-Over-Year Storage Deficit Possible By Mid-February Should Current Outlook Verify


Friday, January 22, 2021
Natural Gas Sell-Off Continues As Early-February Temperature Outlook Warms & LNG Feedgas Demand Slumps; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish -181 BCF Storage Withdrawal In Today’s Delayed Report; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Colder Upper Midwest, But Bearish Withdrawal Expected For The Week Ending Today; Demand Likely To Pick Up Next Week But -200 BCF Weekly Draw Still Looks Unlikely


Thursday, January 21, 2021
Natural Gas Prices Rally Into The Close To Finish With Small Loss While E&Ps Face A Second Day Of Heavy Profit-Taking; EIA Expected To Announce Slightly Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build—But Bullish Cushing Draw—In Today’s Delayed Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall To A Weekly Low Today Ahead Of Next Cold Front; No Natural Gas Storage Report Today


Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Natural Gas Erases 2021 Gains In -7.1% Thrashing Of The Bulls After Computer Models Trend Milder; -200 BCF Weekly Withdrawal In January Looking Less Likely, But Storage Surpluses Still Likely To Contract; EIA Reports Uptick In December Drilling Activity, But Still Expects Production To Fall; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today On Cooler Ohio Valley & Northeast


Tuesday, January 19, 2021
Natural Gas Poised To Give Up Last Week’s Gains After Models Abandon Arctic Outbreak In Familiar Holiday Weekend Pivot; Natural Gas Struggles To Overcome Mild Winter Temperatures, But E&Ps Vault Higher, Vaulting Celsius Energy’s Portfolio YTD Gains To +18%; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today On Colder Upper Midwest, But Bearish Weekly Storage Withdrawal Expected


Friday, January 15, 2021
Natural Gas Fades Despite Larger-Than-Expected EIA-Reported Storage Withdrawal On Moderating Temperature Outlook But Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance Will Limit Losses; End Of Season Storage Nadir Targeting The 5-Year Average & Modest Year-Over-Year Deficit


Thursday, January 14, 2021
Natural Gas Eases Lower In Choppy Trading Session As Late January Arctic Threat Remains In Question; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -127 BCF Weekly Storage Withdrawal In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Continue Slump Today As Unseasonably Mild Temperatures Dominate Lower 48


Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Natural Gas Gives Up Early Gains As Models Flip-Flop Away From Arctic Outbreak (Again), But E&Ps Surge On Solid Fundamentals; Oil Prices Rise To 9-Month Highs Ahead Of Today’s Expected Bullish EIA Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Slump Today As Excessive Warmth Dominates The Northern Tier


Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Natural Gas Reverses Sharply On Monday To Extend 2021 Hot Streak As 10-15 Day Outlook Trends Colder & Global Gas Prices Spike; Gas Demand To Begin Multi-Day Decline Today As Cold Air Retreats Across The Gulf Of Mexico & Northern Warmth Expands Southeastward; Realtime Inventories To Fall Below 3100 BCF Today, Now Trailing 2020 By Less Than A Week


Monday, January 11, 2021
Natural Gas Poised To Pull Back After Last Week’s 5% Gain As Computer Models Back Away From Polar Vortex, But Price Floor Likely To Hold As Fundamentals Remain Strong; Gas Demand To Retreat Slightly Today, But Another Bullish Withdrawal Still Likely As Texas Remains Chilly; Year-Over-Year Storage Surplus To Fall Under +100 BCF Today For The First Time Since April 2019


Friday, January 8, 2021
Natural Gas Remains Perfect In 2021 After EIA Reports -130 BCF Storage Withdrawal In-Line With Expectation’s; Commodity’s Near Term Prospects Remain Highly Dependent On Whether Late January Cold Shows Up; Volatile Week Ahead For Natural Gas Demand That Could See Year-Over-Year Surplus Drop Under +100 BCF


Thursday, January 7, 2021
Oil Prices Rise To 9-Month High After EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected Crude Inventory Drawdown But Natural Gas Recovers From Early Losses To Keep 2021 Streak Intact; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish -128 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Storm System Brings Wet Snow & Cooler Temperatures Across The Deep South


Wednesday, January 6, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies Again On Late January Cold Threat As 2021 Gets Off To A Fast Start, But A Near-Term Pullback Is Likely Should Models Moderate; Oil Prices Top $50/Barrel On Saudi Oil Production Curtailment Ahead Of Today’s EIA Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly As South Cools, But Another Bearish Withdrawal Is Still Likely