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Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:
Thursday, September 28, 2023
October Natural Gas Expires On A High Note As Higher Exports & Tighter Supply/Demand Imbalances Trump Bearish October Temperature Outlook (At Least For A Day); Oil Prices Rise After Better-Than-Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bearish +89 BCF Injection In Today’s Natural Gas Storage Report
Wednesday, September 27, 2023
October Natural Gas Futures Prices Rise But The More Active Winter Contracts Drop As Forecast Early-To-Mid October Warmth Raises Demand Concerns & LNG Export Demand Falls; Oil Prices Stage Late-Session Rally; EIA Expected To Announce Neutral Crude Inventory Build In Today’s Status Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Hot Heartland Continues To Support Robust Cooling Demand
Tuesday, September 26, 2023
Natural Gas Trades Sideways As Tighter Supply/Demand Imbalances & Higher European Prices Counter Soft Early October Demand Outlook; Gas Demand Set To Edge Higher Today As Deep South Heat & Light Winds Bolster Late-Season Cooling Demand
Monday, September 25, 2023
Bearish Weather But Bullish Fundamentals: Natural Gas Faces Modest Near-Term Downside Risk But Significant Long-Term Upside Potential; Gas Demand Set To Rise Today & Then Hold Steady All Weak As Hot Central US Offset By Cool East; Storage Surpluses To Continue To Slowly Narrow
Friday, September 22, 2023
It’s All About The Weather: Natural Gas Extends Rout Despite Bullish EIA Storage Report & Tightening Imbalances As Mild Temperature Outlook Continues To Weigh On Sentiment; Year-Over-Year Supply/Demand Imbalances Tighten To 2023 Highs; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Hot Central US Offset By Soggy Tropical Threat Off The East Coast
Thursday, September 21, 2023
Natural Gas Reverses Lower After 8% Rally As Investors Pivot Focus From Tighter Supply/Demand Imbalances To Uninspiring Temperature Forecast; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +65 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Realtime Year-Over-Year Surplus Projected To Fall Below +400 BCF Today For The First Time Since February
Wednesday, September 20, 2023
Natural Gas Rallies For Second Straight Day On Lower Supplies, But This Week’s Rally May Be Running Out Of Steam; Medium Term, Upside Potential Still Outweighs Downside Risk; Oil Prices Pull Back After Reaching 10-Month Highs; EIA Expected To Announce Return To Bullish Crude Inventory Draws In Today’s Status Report; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today As Warmth Builds Across The Deep South
Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Natural Gas Rises To Open The Week Afte LNG Export Demand Tops 13 BCF/Day & Imbalances Tighten; UNG Completes Monthly Rollover; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Hot Heartland Offset By Cool Coasts
Monday, September 18, 2023
Natural Gas Prices Face Downside Pressure From Surprise Rig Count Increase & Uninspiring Temperature Outlook, Even As Supply/Demand Imbalances Tighten; Gas Demand Falls To Seasonal Lows Over The Weekend But Is Poised To Rebound Today As Heat Returns To The Great Plains; 1X ETF Set To Conclude Monthly Rollover To November Contracts Today
Friday, September 15, 2023
Natural Gas Gives Up Gains After EIA’s Larger-Than-Expected EIA Storage Injection; Strong Wind Generation Drives Deceptively Loose Build; 2023 To-Date Storage Injection Now The Second Smallest In The Last 5 Years; Bullish Injection Expected This Week As Wind Generation Tumbles; Natural Gas Undervalued, But Bulls Waiting For A Catalyst; Get Ready For Favorable Year-Over-Year Comparisons
Thursday, September 14, 2023
Natural Gas Falls On Weak LNG Exports & Cool Temperature Outlook, Even As Undervaluation Grows; Oil Prices Dip Only Slightly Despite Bearish Crude & Refined Product Storage Builds; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +51 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly As Cooler Temperatures Expand Across the East
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
Natural Gas Rallies On Production Drop & Stabilizing Temperature Outlook; Oil Prices Rise To 10-Month Highs On OPEC Demand Outlook & Libya Floods; Bearish Crude Oil & Gasoline Inventory Builds Expected In Today’s EIA Status Report; Natural Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today As Cooler Temperatures Expand Into The Northeast
Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Natural Gas Trades Sideways In Sleepy Monday Session As cooler Temperatures & Lower LNG Exports Countered By Australian LNG Strikes; Gas Demand To Inch Slightly Lower Today As Cooler Conditions Expand Southward, But Slightly Bullish Injection Still Expected
Monday, September 11, 2023
Natural Gas Finishes The Week On A High Note But Faces More Near-Term Downside On Cooler Temperatures, Lower LNG Exports & Robust Production; Natural Gas Undervaluation Grows As Big Rally Awaits Bullish Catalyst; Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today But Then Fall The Rest Of The Week As Cold Front Finally Breaks The Heat Dome; New England Eyes Hurricane Lee
Friday, September 8, 2023
Natural Gas Struggles To Rally Despite Another Bullish EIA Storage Injection; Natural Gas Poised To Rally As Undervaluations Grow—But The Bears Still Have Their Claws In The Commodity For Now; Larger (But Still Bullish) Storage Injection Expected This Week Despite Stronger Cooling Demand As Wind Generation Soars During Holiday Week; Gas Demand To Extend Losses Next Week As Cooler Air Finally Reaches The Gulf Coast, But Bullish Injection Still Likely
Thursday, September 7, 2023
Natural Gas Extends Losses As Cooldown Looms; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish Natural Gas Injection & Crude Oil Drawdown In Twin Reports Today; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly On Cool Great Lakes But Hot East & Deep South To Drive Another Bullish Daily Build
Wednesday, September 6, 2023
Natural Gas Tumbles In Post-Labor Day Rout On Robust Production & Cooler September Temperature Outlook; Undervaluations Grow More Attractive, But This Is Not The Time To Try To Pick A Bottom; Gas Demand To Begin Steady Downtrend Today As Midwest Narrows, But Intense Eastern Heat To Drive Another Bullish Daily Injection
Tuesday, September 5, 2023
Natural Gas Prices To Face Downside Pressure To Open The Week Ahead Of September Pattern Shift But Narrowing Surplus & Widening Undervaluations To Limit Losses; Speculative Short Positions Rise—Here’s Why That’s Both Bullish & Bearish; Gas Demand To Hit Near-Term High Today As Record Eastern Heat Drives Bullish Daily Storage Injection
Friday, September 1, 2023
Natural Gas Prices Rally & Then Sputter After Bullish, But In-Line, EIA-Reported Storage Injection; Gas Prices In Search OF A Catalyst Before Next Break Higher; Slightly Bullish Injection Expected This Week But Demand Set To Soar Next Week As Heat Builds
Thursday, August 31, 2023
October Natural Gas Futures Contract Kicks Front-Moth Off In Style With 5% Gain On Hot Temperature Outlook & Idalia Landfall; Oil Prices rise After Better-Than-Expected EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +32 BCF Storage Injection In Today’s Report
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
Natural Gas Dips As September Contract Expires As Hot Temperature Outlook, Strong Production, and Hurricane Idalia Battle For Control Of Sentiment; Oil Prices Rise Ahead Of Petroleum Status Report Likely To Feature Large Crude Drawdown But Bearish Refined Product Builds; Gas Demand To Inch Lower Today As Idalia Makes Landfall But Heartland Warms
Tuesday, August 29, 2023
Monday Rally Goes Up In Smoke As Strong Production Faces Off Against Hot Early-September Outlook; Gas Demand To Edge Up Slightly Today On Warmer Eastern Two-Thirds; Idalia A Significant Florida Threat
Monday, August 28, 2023
Natural Gas Rallies On Friday To Finish The Week Flat & Could Add To Gains After Early September Outlook Trends Hotter Over The Weekend; Natural Gas Speculative Short Positions See Largest Jump Of 2023, But Balanced Bullish & Bearish Bets Suppress Volatility, For Now; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly From Weekend Lows, But Will Have To Wait Until The Weekend For Next Leg Up; Idalia A Big Threat To Florida
Friday, August 25, 2023
Natural Gas Fails To Rally Despite Much Smaller-Than-Expected EIA Storage Injection As Bears Remain Entrenched; Natural Gas Undervaluation Rises, But That Doesn’t Mean Prices Will Bounce Immediately; Gas Demand Set To Fall In The Week Ahead, But Storage Surplus Will Continue To Steadily Narrow To Fresh 6-Month Lows
Wednesday, August 23, 2023
Natural Gas Slumps Lower On Robust Production & Tropical Threats Even As Storage Surpluses Narrow; EIA Set To Announce Slightly Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Record-Setting Midwest Heat; Gas Demand Likely To Peak On Thursday, But Don’t Expect A Pattern Shift Anytime Soon
Tuesday, August 22, 2023
Natural Gas Rallies To Start The Week But ETFs Can’t Capitalize; Gas Demand Set To Drop Slightly Today As Northeast Cools, But It Won’t Last; Tropical Storm Harold Expected To Impact South Texas Today
Monday, August 21, 2023
Natural Gas Pulls Back In Bearish Week Of Trading Even As Rig Counts Fall & Record-Setting Heat Wave Gears Up; Gas Demand Set To Continue To Rise Today As Heat Builds Across The Central US; Heatwave Set To Peak Later This Week, But Above-Average Temperatures Expected Into September
Friday, August 18, 2023
Natural Gas Holds Onto Small Gain After Bullish, But Unremarkable, EIA Storage Report; Season-Ending Peak Inventory Projection Continues to Trend Lower, But Will be Volatile; Gas Demand Set To Ramp Up Early Next Week As Heat Dome Builds Across The Central & Eastern US; Hurricane Hilary A Rare Threat To The US West Coast
Thursday, August 17, 2023
Natural Gas Succumbs To Selling Pressure For Second Straight Day On Potential Cooler Late August Forecast; Prices Now Testing The Lower Bound Of The Trading Range; Oil Prices Dip Despite Bullish EIA Inventory Drawdown As Global Economic Concerns Weigh; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish +34 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection Today; Gas Demand To Rise Today But Bigger Gains Will Come Early Next Week
Wednesday, August 16, 2023
Natural Gas Pulls Back On Broad Energy Sector Decline, Erasing Overvaluation; Oil Drops Ahead Of Expected Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand Hold Steady Today As South Cools But Heat Begins To Build Across The Great Plains
Tuesday, August 15, 2023
Summer Doldrums: Natural Gas Edges Higher In Sluggish Session As Hot Temperature Outlook Supports Prices Despite Growing Fundamental Overvaluation; Gas Demand Set To Drop Slightly Today As Unseasonably Cool Conditions Dominate The Ohio Valley & Erode Some Of The Deep South Heat, But Another Bullish Injection Is Still Likely
Monday, August 14, 2023
Natural Gas Regains Footing On Friday After Rig Count Decline To Finish The Week Up Over 7%; Devil’s Advocate: Here Is Why Natural Gas Prices WON’T Rise Further; Gas Demand Set To Edge Higher Today With Slightly Bullish Injection Expected; Cool Midwest & Great Lakes To Keep A Lid On Gas Demand This Week But Nationwide Heat Increasingly Likely By The Weekend
Friday, August 11, 2023
Natural Gas Gives Back Gains In Bearish Session After Larger-Than-Expected EIA Storage Injection & Amidst Meaningful Efforts To Avert Australian LNG Strike; Sustained Pullback Unlikely As Bullish Catalysts Persist; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Heat Builds Back Across The Great Plains, Capping Off A Slightly Bullish Week
Thursday, August 10, 2023
Natural Gas Rips To The Upside For Fifth Straight Gain On Potential Australian LNG Strike, Hot Temperatures, & Softer Production; Prices Are Overvalued Here, But Can Go Higher Before The Party Ends; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +24 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today On Cool East
Wednesday, August 9, 2023
Natural Gas Rises For Fourth Straight Session As Prices Begin To Brush Up Against Near-Term Price Ceiling; Oil Stages Big Rally After Chinese Data Disappoints To Finish In The Black; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today’s Status Report—But I Don’t See The Report As A Rally Buster; Gas Demand To Edge Higher Today As Heat Builds Across The Deep South
Tuesday, August 8, 2023
Natural Gas Soars As Investors React To Unseasonably Hot August Temperature Outlook & Re-Examine Last Week’s Losses; Abide The Fundamentals—Don’t Chase! BOIL Begins Rollover; Gas Demand Set To Fall Slightly Today As Cooler Conditions Temporarily Move Into Parts Of The Deep South
Monday, August 7, 2023
Natural Gas Finishes Higher On Friday, But Logs Second Straight Week In The Red; BOIL To Begin Its Rollover This Week—Here’s What It Means For The ETF; This Is Why I Am Cautious Near-Term But More Confidently Long-Term Bullish; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Cool Northern Tier Countered By Very Hot South & Mid-Atlantic
Friday, August 4, 2023
Whiplash: Natural Gas Reverses Higher After Bullish EIA Storage Report; This Fall’s Projected Peak Storage Continues To Drop—How Low Can It Go? Rangebound Trading Remains Likely, But With A Slight Bullish Bias; Gas Demand To Hold Steady With Modestly Bullish Daily Withdrawals Expected As Deep South Bakes & Great Lakes Chills
Thursday, August 3, 2023
EIA Reports Record Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown But Oil Prices Still Slump After US Credit Downgrade; Natural Gas Stumbles For Second Day Even As Undervaluation Increases; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +18 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand Set To Edge Higher Today As Heat Builds Across The Upper Midwest & Persists Across The Deep South
Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Natural Gas Falls On Storage Concerns, Domestically & Abroad, But Downside Risk Should Be Limited; Oil Prices Ease On Profit-Taking; EIA Expected To Announce Potentially Historic Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Again Hold Steady Today With Bullish Injection As Deep South Bakes
Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Natural Gas Trades Sideways To Wrap Up July As Fundamentals, Seasonality, & Pricing All Favor Continued Rangebound Trading--But Never Sleep On This Commodity; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Deep South Heat Partially Offset By Cool Northeast
Monday, July 31, 2023
Natural Gas Rebounds On Friday, But Finishes The Week With A Loss; Rangebound Trading Remains Likely, But Watch Out If Buyers Step In; Bullish Daily Storage Injections Likely Into August As Hot South Supports Robust Powerburn Demand; Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average Projected To Fall To Lowest Level Since February
Friday, July 28, 2023
Natural Gas Sells Off Despite Bullish & Smaller-Than-Expected EIA-Reported Storage Injection—Here’s Why; Natural Gas Remains On Solid Fundamental Ground Here; Gas Demand Set To Reach Seasonal High Today As Heartland & East Bake; Demand To Edge Lower This Weekend, But Bullish Builds Still Likely
Thursday, July 27, 2023
Natural Gas Pulls Back On Profit-Taking While Oil Drops After Bearish EIA Storage Data; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +22 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Reach Seasonal High Today On Building East Coast Heat; Record Powerburn Possible Today Or Tomorrow
Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Natural Gas Rallies As Heat Intensifies Across The Lower 48; Oil Prices Climb To 3-Month Highs On Bullish Long-Term Supply/Demand Forecasts; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build Today—But Do Investors Care? Gas Demand Set To Rise Today As Hottest Temperatures Of The Summer Arrive
Tuesday, July 25, 2023
Natural Gas Edges Lower In Sleepy Monday After Temperature Outlook Moderates Slightly; The Bulls Still Have The Edge Here; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Hottest Temperatures Of The Summer Build Across The Heartland; Record Poweburn Demand Possible This Week
Monday, July 24, 2023
Natural Gas Pulls Back On Friday But Registers Big Weekly Gain; Bullish Catalysts Outweigh The Bearish Near-Term With Coming Heatwave To Drive Most Meaningful Contraction Of The Storage Surplus This Summer; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Heat Begins To Build Across The Heartland
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