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Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Monday, September 26, 2022
Natural Gas Plunges For Fifth Straight Week To 10-Week Lows After Largest Injection Of The Year & Bearish Shoulder Season Temperature Outlook—But Prices Are Likely Nearing Support As Bullish Catalysts Remain; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Logs Big Weekly Loss On Equity Declines; Natural Gas Inventories Expected To (Finally) Top 3000 BCF Today



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Friday, September 23, 2022
Natural Gas Plunges After EIA Reports Triple Digit Storage Injection; Can Inventories Reach 3500 BCF This Year? Gas Demand To Rise Today As Favorable Shoulder-Season Dynamics Dominates The Lower 48; Natural Gas Inventories To Top 3000 BCF Early Next Week; Tropical Threat Fades For Gulf Of Mexico Natural Gas Infrastructure, But Strong Storm Still Threatens Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Next Week


Thursday, September 22, 2022
Early-Morning Price Spike Fades As Natural Gas Investors Shrug Off Russian Mobilization, But Commodity Does Snap 4-Session Losing Streak; Oil Prices Fall After Bearish EIA Status Report & Fed Rate Hike—But Don’t Sleep On Dwindling SPR; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +96 BCF Storage Injection In Today’s Natural Gas Storage Report; Gas Demand To Slump Today As Temperatures Tumble Across The Midwest & Northeast


Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Early Strength Fails Again As Natural Gas Records A Fourth Straight Daily Loss On Strong Production & Impending Shoulder Season Demand; All Eyes On Future Hurricane Hermine & Potential Gulf Of Mexico Impacts Next Week; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil & Refined Product Builds—But Another Big SPR Release As Well; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Heat Begins To Shift East


Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Natural Recovers From Steep Early Losses But Still Finishes In The Red As Bearish Supply Drivers Clash Against Bullish Demand Drivers; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Record-Setting Midwest Heat; Keep An Eye On The Tropics Later This Week


Monday, September 19, 2022
Natural Gas Stages Big Late-Week Bearish Reversal On Averted Railroad Strike, Higher Production, & Looser Supply/Demand Imbalances With Further Near-Term Weakness Possible; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Edges Up Late In The Week To Finish At New Highs; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Record Heartland Heat With Bullish Daily Storage Injection Expected


Friday, September 16, 2022
Natural Gas Plunges, Reversing Wednesday’s Big Gain, After Railroad Strike Is Averted & EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected Storage Injection; Projected Seasonal Maximum Inventories Tops 3400 BCF, But EIA’s Forecast 3500 BCF Looks Like A Stretch; Gas Demand To Ramp Up Next Week As Record Heat Builds Across The Central US


Wednesday, September 14, 2022
Natural Gas Rises As Investors Focus On Brief Mid-September Heatwave Next Week & Transient Drop In Production; Oil Prices Drag Lower After Bearish CPI Data Tanks Equities Markets; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Build Today, Fueled By Record SPR Release; Natural Gas Demand To Fall Today As GWDDs Fall To Seasonal Low On Comfortable Lower 48 Temperatures


Wednesday, September 14, 2022
Natural Gas Rises As Investors Focus On Brief Mid-September Heatwave Next Week & Transient Drop In Production; Oil Prices Drag Lower After Bearish CPI Data Tanks Equities Markets; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Build Today, Fueled By Record SPR Release; Natural Gas Demand To Fall Today As GWDDs Fall To Seasonal Low On Comfortable Lower 48 Temperatures


Tuesday, September 13, 2022
Natural Gas Prices Rise To 10-Day Despite Production Gains & Shoulder Season Temperature Outlook; Corpus Christi Export Demand Returns To Capacity Following Maintenance; Gas Demand Set To Drop Today As West & South Cool; Bearish Daily Storage Injection Expected Today


Monday, September 12, 2022
Natural Gas Wrap Up The Week With Back-To-Back Daily Gains, But Still Registers Big Weekly Loss; Gas Prices Remain Overvalued As Supply/Demand Imbalances Loosen On Record Production & Big Year-Over-Year Gain In Total Supply; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Enters The Week At Year-To-Date Highs; Gas Demand Falls To Seasonal Lows Over The Weekend On Cool Midwest, But Is Set To Rise Early This Week


Friday, September 9, 2022
Natural Gas Stabilizes (For Now) After Neutral EIA-Reported Injection; Production Nears 100 BCF/Day While Year-Over-Year Total Supply Gains Near +10 BCF/Day; Powerburn Demand Remains Exceptionally Strong—But For How Long? Oil Prices Bounce Despite Bearish Inventory Build As Long-Standing Year-Over-Year Deficit Flips To A Surplus; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Midwest & Southeast Cool


Thursday, September 8, 2022
Natural Gas Extends Slide After Production Reaches New Record High While Oil Slumps To Pre-Ukraine/Russia War Levels On Demand Concerns & Stronger US Dollar; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish +55 BCF Natural Gas Storage & Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Builds In Twin Storage Reports Today; Gas Demand To Drop As Temperatures Cool Across The South & Northern Rockies


Wednesday, September 7, 2022
Natural Gas Plunges To 1-Month Low On Record Production & Impending Shoulder Season Demand Minimum--Is A Bottom In Yet? Celsius Energy Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Gains Reach +5% Since August 1; Natural Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today With Record Great Plains, Rockies, & Western Heat Driving Bullish Withdrawal


Tuesday, September 6, 2022
Natural Gas Comes Under Pressure As Production Jumps To Record Highs But Multiple Bullish Catalysts Should Blunt Selling Pressure; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Enters September At Fresh Highs; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Cool Northeast Countered By Record-Setting Heat Across The West & Plains


Friday, September 2, 2022
Natural Gas Prices Rise Despite Bearish EIA-Reported Storage Injection & Looser Supply/Demand Imbalances; Storage Increasingly Likely to Peak Below 3500 BCF This Fall; Weather Pattern & Stable Gas Demand Expected Into Next Week With Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Poised To Reach New 2022 Highs


Thursday, September 1, 2022
Oil Prices Continue Slide To 2-Week Low After Bearish EIA Status Report Shows Lackluster Product Demand; Natural Gas Finishes Strong While European Prices Extend Losses Despite Nord Stream I Closure; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bearish +58 BCF Storage Injection Today; Gas Demand Holds Steady With Bullish Daily Injection On Western Heat Wave


Wednesday, August 31, 2022
October Natural Gas Tumbles In Bearish Debut On European Pullback, Strong Production, & Uncertain Temperature Outlook; Oil Prices Plunge In Largest Drop In A Month On Global Demand Concerns; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Inventory Build In Today’s Status Report As Year-Over-Year Deficit Dwindles; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today As Northeast Cools, Even As The Western US Heats Up


Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Natural Gas Sees Volatile Expiration Session But Closes With Small Gain; European Prices Tumble From Record Highs; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today On Cooler Great Lakes & Texas


Monday, August 29, 2022
Natural Gas Falls On Friday To Log A Weekly Loss; Short-Term Bullish Catalysts Could Provide Some Early-Week Strength, But My Sentiment Is Unchanged As Production Finally Rebounds; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Warmer Temperatures Expand Across The Northeast &Great Lakes


Friday, August 26, 2022
Domestic Natural Gas Takes A Breather After EIA Reports Storage Injection In-Line With Expectations, Even As Record European Prices Surge To Just Below $100/MMBTU (!!!); Can Europe Drag US Prices To $10/MMBTU? Another Bearish Injection Expected This Week, Even As Imbalances Tighten On Weak Wind Generation; Gas Demand To Hold Steady This Weekend Before Ramping Up Next Week As Late-Season Heat Visits The Midwest, Great Lakes, & Northeast


Thursday, August 25, 2022
Natural Gas Finds Footing After Freeport Shake-Up; Oil Rises To 1-Month Highs As Investors Look Past Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Oil Drawdown & Weak Gasoline Demand; EIA Projected To Announce Looser +60 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s EIA Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today With Neutral Daily Build On Warm East & Cool South


Wednesday, August 24, 2022
Natural Gas Tops $10/MMBTU, But Then Plunges After Freeport Restart Delayed; $10/MMBTU Prospects Dimmed, But Not Extinguished; Oil Prices Reach 2-Week Highs On Potential OPEC Support To Rebalance Markets; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Crude Draw, But Neutral Overall Report; Natural Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As East Warms, But South Remains Cool


Tuesday, August 23, 2022
Natural Gas Notches Second Straight 14-Year High As $10/MMBTU Beckons After European Prices Roar To Record On Nord Stream I Concerns; Overvalued Or Not, Without Higher Production, There’s No Meaningful Catalyst For A Sustained Pullback; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly As Heartland Warms Even As The South Remains Unseasonably Cool


Monday, August 22, 2022
Natural Gas Records Second Straight Weekly Gain To Settle At Fresh 14-Year Highs On Lackluster Production & Strong EIA Storage Report; Gas Prices To Face A Mix Of Headwinds & Tailwinds To Start The Week, But Prices Remains Long-Term Overvalued, Storage Concerns Notwithstanding; Another Bearish Injection Likely Today As Deep South Remains Unseasonably Cool Before Temperatures Begin To Warm


Friday, August 19, 2022
Sell-The-News: Natural Gas Rally Fails Despite Bullish & Smaller-Than-Expected EIA Storage Injection, But Mission To $10/MMBTU Isn’t Over Yet; End-Of-Season Projected Maximum Holds Under 3400 BCF; Much Larger Storage Injection Expected This Week Due To Colder Temperatures & Looser Imbalances


Thursday, August 18, 2022
Natural Gas Rally Fails, But Prices Still Look Destined For $10/MMBTU In The Near-Term, Overvaluation Notwithstanding; Oil Prices Rise Modestly After Record Exports & Improving Gasoline Demand Drive Larger-Than-Expected Crude Drawdown; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish +23 BCF Injection Today, But Don’t Be Surprised To See An Even More Bullish Surprise; Gas Demand Dips With Bearish Daily Build Expected On Cool South


Wednesday, August 17, 2022
Natural Gas Surges To 14-Year High On Production Drop, Expected Bullish Injection This Thursday, and Divergent Temperature Outlook; Oil Slumps To 6-Month Low On Potential Iran Deal Revival; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Refined Product Drawdowns In Today’s Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Cooler-Than-Normal Temperatures Push Into The Deep South


Tuesday, August 16, 2022
Natural Gas Recovers From Early Gap Down After Production Gains Over The Weekend & Temperature Outlook Looks Seasonable; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady Today On Cool Northern Tier & Hot South


Monday, August 15, 2022
Natural Gas Prices Dip Friday But Log Huge Week On Lower Production & Hotter Late-August Temperature Outlook; Production Rebounds Over The Weekend, But Temperature Outlook Also Trends Hotter; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Logs Weekly Gain; Gas Demand To Rebound Today, But Will Then Stagnate For The Next 7-10 Days With Daily Injections At Or Above The 5-Year Average


Friday, August 12, 2022
EIA Announces Neutral & Slightly Larger-Than-Expected Natural Gas Storage Injection, But Prices Spike To 6-Week Highs On Strong LNG Exports, Lower Production, & Gulf Oil Pipeline Leak; End-Of-Season Peak Projections Converge towards A Low—But Not Alarming—3350-3400 BCF; Gas Demand To Fall Today On Cooling East, But Bullish Injection Expected This Week Thanks To Tighter Supply/Demand Imbalance


Thursday, August 11, 2022
Natural Gas Surges After Freeport Withdraws Force Majeure, Production Slumps, & Wind Hits Summer Low—Even As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Cools Further; Oil Prices Rise After Gasoline Demand Rebounds & Dollar Drops; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish +40 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Mid-Atlantic Cools With Near-Normal Build Expected


Wednesday, August 10, 2022
Natural Gas Prices Rebound On Short-Term Production Drop Even As Cooler Mid-August Temperature Outlook Persists; Early Oil Rally Fails After Ukraine Pipeline Disruption Likely to Be Temporary; Amidst Weak Demand, EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Storage Build Today As Inventories Rise to 2022 Highs; Gas Demand To Drop Today As Cooler Temperatures Finally Arrive Across New England


Tuesday, August 9, 2022
Natural Gas Tumbles To 3-Week Low On Much Cooler Mid-August Temperature Outlook & Near-Record Production; How Far Can Prices Fall? Gas Demand Set To Drop Today, But Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Still Expected To Reach New 2022 High Above -350 BCF on Hot Eastern Seaboard


Monday, August 8, 2022
Natural Gas To Face Headwinds This Week As Production Rises & Mid-To-Late August Temperature Outlook Trends Cooler; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Finishes With Small Weekly Gain As Options Gains Offset Equities Losses; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Heat Briefly Expands Across The Eastern Seaboard


Friday, August 5, 2022
EIA Reports Much Larger-Than-Expected Storage Injection, But Natural Gas Rallies After Early Steep Loss; Supply/Demand Imbalances Loosen As Production Finally Breaks Out; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady Today—And For Much Of Next Week—As Generally Above-Average Temperatures Expected To Persist


Thursday, August 4, 2022
Natural Gas Spikes In Final Hour Of Trading On Bullish Freeport Restart News, Even As Temperature Outlook Cools & Production Holds Above 97 BCF/Day; WTI Tumbles To 5-Month Low After Bearish Petroleum Status Report; EIA Expected To Announce Neutral +36 BCF Natural Gas Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Dip Today On Cooler Midwest, But Another Bullish Daily Injection Still Expected


Wednesday, August 3, 2022
Natural Gas Prices Slump On Higher Production & More Moderate Mid-August Outlook; Oil Prices Log Small Gains On Prospect For Steady OPEC Production; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Heat Expands Eastward And Southwards


Tuesday, August 2, 2022
Natural Gas Stages Sharp Rally To Finish Monday In The Black As Investors Overlook Weekend Production Jump & Focus On Hot Temperature Outlook; Gas Demand To Ramp Up Further Today As Heat Builds Across The Heartland & Eastern Seaboard


Monday, August 1, 2022
Natural Gas Finishes Friday On A Strong Note, But The Commodity Could Face Early-Week Pressure After Weekend Production Rises & Mid-August Temperature Outlook Trends Slightly Cooler; Upgraded Energy Portfolio Page Now Live; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As New Heatwave Begins To Build Across The Central US