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Daily Commentaries

Today's Daily Commentary

Friday, May 14, 2021
Natural Gas Trades Laterally After EIA Reports Bullish & Slightly Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection But Investors Fear Larger Injections Beckon; Projected Season-Ending Peak Inventory Levels Continue To Drop On Tight Supply/Demand Imbalance—But Summer Has To Show Up; Bearish Temperature Pattern With Mild North & Cool South Next Week Could Drive The Season’s First Triple-Digit Storage Injection



Daily Commentaries For The Last 30 Days:

Thursday, May 13, 2021
Oil Rises To 2-Month High After EIA Reports Small Storage Withdrawal Despite Sharp Drop-Off In Exports; Natural Gas Rides Recent Momentum Higher As It Looks To Challenge $3.00/MMBTU; EIA Expected To Announce Neutral-To-Bullish +79 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall More Sharply Today As Warmer Conditions Overspread The Northern Tier & The South Remains Chilly


Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Natural Gas Reverses Higher After EIA Revises Price Outlook & Exports Rise While Oil Sidesteps Tumbling US Markets To Finish In the Black; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Crude Oil Draw But Bearish Gasoline Build In Today’s Status Report; Natural Gas Demand To Begin Steady Decline Today As Cooling Demand Suppression Across The Deep South Outweighs Northern Heating Demand


Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Natural Gas Edges Lower On Prospect Of More Seasonal Temperatures By The Weekend While Oil Holds Its Ground After Colonial Pipeline Hack; European Natural Gas Prices Continue To Soar, Putting Upward Pressure On LNG Exports; Gas Demand To Peak Near-Term Today On Unseasonably Chilly Conditions Across The Northern Tier


Monday, May 10, 2021
Natural Gas Nets Weekly Gain on Cold Early May, Warmer Late May Outlook, Bullish EIA Storage report, & Strong Export Demand—But May Be Due For An Early-Week Pullback; Celsius Energy’s Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio YTD Gains Top +50%; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Unseasonably Chilly Readings Remain In Place With Storage Deficit Versus 2020 Likely To Reach -400 BCF On Tuesday


Friday, May 7, 2021
Natural Gas Falls Despite Smaller-Than-Expected EIA-Reported Storage Injection & Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance; Fundamentals Remains Strong As Projected End-Of-Season Natural Gas Storage Maximum Falls Under 3400 BCF On Strong Exports & Improved Powerburn Demand; Bullish Storage Injection Expected Next Week Thanks To Chilly Pattern With Storage Deficit Versus The 5-year Average To Top -100 BCF


Thursday, May 6, 2021
Oil Investors Sell-The-News Despite Big EIA-Reported Crude Drawdown & Demand Gains While Natural Gas Pulls Back On Cooler Late May Outlook; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bullish +70 BCF Storage Injection For Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Unseasonably Chilly Conditions Dominate The Eastern Two-Thirds Of The Nation


Wednesday, May 5, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies On Strong Exports & Unseasonably Chilly Early-May Temperature Outlook, But Prices Beginning To Brush Against $3.00/MMBTU Near-Term Price Ceiling; Oil Prices Rise to 2-Month High On Demand Recovery Optimism; EIA Expected To Release Most Bullish Petroleum Status Report Of 2021 Today Featuring Steep Crude Oil Drawdown; Natural Gas Demand Set To Gain Today On Eastern Cooldown, Beginning A String Of Bullish Daily Storage Injections


Tuesday, May 4, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies To 10-Week High On Potential For Mid-May Cooling Demand; Natural Gas Fundamentals Remain Solid On The Back Of Strong LNG Export Demand; European Injection Season Can’t Get Off The Ground Thanks To Prolonged Cold Snap, Driving Higher Prices & Bullish Profitability Spreads; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Toasty Mid-Atlantic & Chilly Midwest


Monday, May 3, 2021
Natural Gas Recovers On Friday To Wrap Up Solid Weekly Gain; Further Gains Possible To Start The Week As Temperature Outlook Improves On Chilly Start To May But Rising Cooling Demand By Mid-Month; Gas Demand To Rebound Today On Warming South & Unseasonable Rockies Chill, But Realtime Inventories To Top 2000 BCF By This Afternoon


Friday, April 30, 2021
Natural Gas Bears Get Their Opportunity For A Pullback After The EIA Reports a Larger-than-Expected +15 BCF Storage Injection—But It’s Just Another Buying Opportunity; Gas Demand To Rise To End The Week Today As Colder Temperatures Reach Great Lakes & Northeast; Inventories Likely To Top 2000 BCF On Monday, But Year-Over-Year Will Eclipse -350 BCF Next Week


Thursday, April 29, 2021
Oil Prices Rise After EIA Reports Bullish Inventory Build And Storage Flips Back To A Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average; Natural Gas Challenges $3.00/MMBTU As Supply/Demand Imbalance Remains Tight & May Temperature Outlook Looks Warm; EIA Expected To Announce Exceptionally Bullish +8 BCF Storage Injection—But Will It Be Enough To Meet Lofty Expectations?


Wednesday, April 28, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies On Production Drop & Strong Export Demand While Oil Reaches 1-Week High; EIA Expected To Announce Slightly Bearish Crude Oil Build, But Bullish Refined Product Drawdowns In Today’s Weekly Status Report; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady Today As Moderating Heartland Offset By Summer-Like Heat Across The Mid-Atlantic


Tuesday, April 27, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies To 7-Week High As Investors Look Past Bearish Temperature Outlook While Tight Supply/Demand Imbalance Flexes Its Muscles; Gas Demand To Drop Today As Much Warmer Temperatures Overspread The Midwest & East, But Neutral Daily Storage Injection Still Expected


Monday, April 26, 2021
Natural Gas Fades Friday But Gains For Second Straight Week; Look For Mild Pullback & Low Volatility In Near-Term As We Enter The Heart Of The Shoulder Season, But Long-Term Fundamentals Improving After Smaller-Than-Expected EIA Storage Builds; Gas Demand To Fall Through Mid-Week On Warming East Before Another Quick-Hitting Shot Of Colder Air Arrives


Friday, April 23, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies After EIA Reports Much Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Injection As Supply/Demand Imbalance Tightens; End-Of-Season Peak Storage Projections Trending Lower; Natural Gas Bullish Sentiment Building, But Let’s Not Get Carried Away; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Temperatures Moderate, But 5-Year Minimum Weekly Storage Injection Still Expected


Thursday, April 22, 2021
Oil Prices Drop Despite Bullish EIA-Reported Crude Oil Inventory Build As Global Demand Concerns Linger; Natural Gas Prices Pullback On Profit-Taking & Looser Supply/Demand Imbalance; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bearish +49 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Another Daily Storage Withdrawal Expected Today As Record-Setting Spring Chill Dominates The Lower 48


Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Natural Gas Pulls Back On Fading Late April & Early May Demand Prospects While Oil Drops On COVID Threat To Global Demand; EIA Expected To Announce First Storage Build In Three Weeks In Today’s Status Report, But Storage Surplus Will Continue To Narrow; Gas Demand To Surge Today On Record Lower 48 Cold As Realtime Storage Surplus Projected To Flip To A Deficit By This Afternoon


Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Suddenly Hot Natural Gas Rises To A 6-Week High—And My Springtime Upside Price Target—On Record April Cold Snap & Strong Exports; But Here’s Why I’m Not More Bullish Right Now; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Cold Expands Eastward & Natural Gas Daily Storage Builds Prepare To Flip To Withdrawals


Monday, April 19, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies To A 5-Week High On Unseasonably Cold April Temperature Outlook & Tighter Supply/Demand Imbalance; Natural Gas Upside Remains Here, But $3.00/MMBTU Is A Stretch This Spring Based On Fair Price Analaysis; Gas Demand To Ramp Up This Week With Daily Storage Withdrawals Likely; Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average Will Flip Back To A Deficit By Wednesday


Friday, April 16, 2021
EIA Reports Neutral +61 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection As Inventories Flip Back To A Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average, For Now; End-Of-Season Maximum Storage Projections Falling Thanks To Strong EIA Reports, Cold April Temperatures & Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance; Natural Gas Prices Firming Up, But Rangebound Trading Still Likely This Spring


Thursday, April 15, 2021
Oil Prices Rise After Bullish EIA Status Report As Crude Inventories Flip To Year-Over-Year Storage Deficit On Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance; Natural Gas Fades Into The Afternoon & Snaps 5-Session Winning Streak; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish +60 BCF Weekly Storage Injection In Today’s Report; Gas Demand To Rise Today With Bullish Daily Storage Build Expected Thanks To Chilly Lower 48, Beginning a Streak Of 10+ Bullish Daily Injections


Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Natural Gas Rallies For Fifth Day On Prolonged April Cold Snap & Strong Export Demand Even As Overvaluation Versus Fair Price Grows While Oil Prices Inch Closer To A Breakout; EIA Expected To Announce Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown Today With Storage Likely To Flip To A Year-Over-Year Deficit; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Chilly Great Plains With A Near-Average Storage Injection Projected


Tuesday, April 13, 2021
Natural Gas Rises For 4th Straight Session On Weekend Cooldown & Strong Natural Gas Exports—Though Prices Are Only 10 Cents Off Their 2021 Lows; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures Expand Across The Heartland


Monday, April 12, 2021
Natural Gas Rises To End The Week As Near-Term Upside Outweighs Downside Risk On Mid-April Cold Snap & Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance; Celsius Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Records Weekly Loss On E&P Pullback—Here’s Why; Gas Demand To Rise Today And Then Again Tomorrow As Much Colder Conditions Spread East--But Such A Pattern Isn’t What It Would Be In January


Thursday, April 8, 2021
Oil Prices Rise Slightly After EIA Reports Bullish Storage Withdrawal As Year-Over-Year Comparisons Tighten Significantly; Natural Gas Rallies As Computer Models Trend Towards Mid-April Cold Snap But Prices Unlikely To Snap Out Of Rangebound Trading; EIA Projected To Announce Slightly Bearish +18 BCF Injection Today; Natural Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Inventories Flip To Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average


Tuesday, April 6, 2021
Natural Gas Slides 5% After Long Holiday Weekend Amidst Bearish Near-Term Temperature Outlook, Flipping To A Year-to-Date Loss; With Natural Gas Now Undervalued Versus Its Fair Price, Upside Potential Begins To Outweigh Downside Risk Even With Mild April Temperatures; Gas Demand To Fall To New 2021 Low Today As Unseasonable Warmth Overspreads The Great Lakes & East


Monday, April 5, 2021
Natural Gas Rises To End Holiday-Shortened Week With Small Gain, But Will Face Near-Term Headwinds As Temperature Outlook Remains Mild With Rangebound Trading Likely To Continue; Gas Demand To Fall To 2021 Low Today As Record-Setting Warmth Dominates The Great Plains Ahead Of The Next Storm System; Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Enters 2Q At 2021 Highs & Ready To Put Cash To Work


Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Thanks To Strong LNG Export Demand, Natural Gas Rises On Monday Despite Warming Temperature Outlook & Weak Powerburn Demand; Rangebound Trading Set To Continue; Gas Demand To Drop Today On Brief Eastern Warm-Up But Much Colder Temperatures Lurk Across The Great Plains


Wednesday, March 31, 2021
Natural Gas Reverses Monday’s Gains As Rangebound Trading Continues While Inventories Hover Around The 5-Year Average; Oil Prices Fall On Global Demand Concerns; EIA Expected To Announce Sixth Straight Inventory Build, But Storage Surplus Expected To Narrow; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Quick-Hitting Shot Of Arctic Air Expands Eastward


Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Thanks To Strong LNG Export Demand, Natural Gas Rises On Monday Despite Warming Temperature Outlook & Weak Powerburn Demand; Rangebound Trading Set To Continue; Gas Demand To Drop Today On Brief Eastern Warm-Up But Much Colder Temperatures Lurk Across The Great Plains


Monday, March 29, 2021
Natural Gas Records First (Small) Weekly Gain In A Month On Record LNG Exports, Early April Cooldown, & Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance; Surge In Bearish Natural Gas Bets Stabilizes, Per The CFTC; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Cooler East, But Bearish Build Still Likely As Storage Deficit Falls Into Single Digits; Daily Storage Withdrawals Likely By Thursday As Late-Season “Arctic” Airmass Surges Southward