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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Slumps To A 3+ Month Low As Unseasonably Mild Temperature Outlook Continues To Weigh On Sentiment; Arctic Air Pushes European Storage To Huge Deficit & Bolsters US LNG Export Outlook; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today As East Coast Moderates
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
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Natural gas prices stumbled for a fourth straight session on Monday to open the week on a bearish note. The front-month February 2026 contract fell 10 cents or 2.6% to settle at $3.52/MMBTU after falling as low as $3.40/MMBTU early. It was the lowest settlement for the front-month contract since October 28. And since peaking at $5.29/MMBTU on December 5, front-month prices are down 33%. Among ETFs, 1x UNG fell -3.6% while 2x BOIL plunged -11.1%.
Natural gas continues to be pressured lower by a persistently warmer-than-normal temperatures outlook that now extends into the second half of the month. As shown in the Figure to the right, forecast Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) will remain at or below-average throughout the 14-day period, though there are some hints at more seasonal GWDDs by January 18 or 19 as shown in the Figure to the right. As of Monday evening, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was calling fo...
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