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Monday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Arctic Air Arrives As The Withdrawal Season Begins & LNG Exports Set New Highs; Irrationally Exuberant Traders Could Bid Natural Gas Prices Higher This Week, But I’m Looking Out For A Pullback Afterwards As Overvaluations Widen; Gas Demand To Reach Near-Term Peak Today With Triple Digit Withdrawal As Arctic Air Reaches The Gulf Coast
Monday, November 10, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices pulled back on Friday to wrap up an otherwise bullish week for the sector. One day after rising to a fresh 8-month high, the front-month December 2025 contract fell by 4 cents or -1.0% to settle at $4.32/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG fell -1.6% while 2x BOIL shed -2.4%, both underperforming to rebalance after some post-floor trading gains the session before. On the week, the front-month contract recorded a solid +4.6% gain.
In the near-term, the two primary catalysts dominating the natural gas sector will be the weather and LNG exports. Regarding the former, the first arctic outbreak of the season has arrived with a vengeance east of the Rockies today with a broad area of temperatures 15F-25F below-average, including a bevy of record low-maximum temperatures. This likely resulted in natural gas inventories peaking for the season on Saturday with a double digit daily storage withdrawal likely today. More on the specifics of that later. This cold snap likely contri...
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