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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Sees Fifth Worst Day On Record After Temperature Outlook Trends Warmer, EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected Injection, & Traders Come To Their Senses; Gas Demand To Fall To Weekly Low Today Ahead Of Next Shot Of Arctic Air But Record Draw Still Expected; Crude Oil Holds Onto Second Day Of Gains Despite Record Inventory Build

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Friday, November 16, 2018
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for November 3-9, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +39 BCF. This was 7 BCF larger than my projection and 20 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average +19 BCF build. Four out of the five regions saw bearish injections, with the only exception being the Mountain Region which saw a -1 BCF withdrawal versus the 5-year average +0 BCF. Once again, the South Central Region had the most bearish build of any region at +25 BCF (5-year average: +13 BCF) while the East Region saw inventories rise just +4 BCF (5-year average: +1 BCF). This is a reversal from much of the summer when strong powerburn drove consistently bullish inventory builds (and even withdrawals) across the South Central while a back-up of Marcellus production drove large bearish injections across the East. This back-up has since been relieved with a surge in increased take-away capacity from the region in recent months. Despite these two regions swapping fundamental...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, November 15, 2018
Irrational Exuberance: Natural Gas Sees Largely Daily Gain In 14 Years On Prospect Of Late-November Cold Snap, Plus A Healthy Dose Of Speculation; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish Oil & Natural Gas Builds In Today's Twin Storage Reports; Gas Demand Falls Today Ahead Of The Next Arctic Intrusion


Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Don't Get Greedy (And Don't Panic) Edition: Natural Gas Surges To New 4-Year High While Oil Plumbs The Depths Of A Bear Market, Setting New Records For Futility; Gas Demand Expected To Peak Today With Daily Draw Typical For Early February As Southern Winter Storm Gears Up; Computer Models Trend Away From Rapid Warming, But Also Blunt Third Arctic Wave


Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Pain & Gain: Natural Gas Rallies, Laying Waste To The Bears In Late-Session Rally As Computer Models Trend Colder (Again); Gas Demand Rises Today As Second Wave Of Arctic Air Expands Across The Heartland; 11-Day Oil Slide Now The Longest On Record; An Analysis Of My Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio's 5 Monday Trades


Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive




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Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

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Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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