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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Sell The News: Natural Gas Resumes Sell-Off After Bullish, But In-Line, EIA Storage Withdrawal; Exceptionally Bearish Temperature Outlook Into January Emboldens Bears, But Sentiment Can Turn On A Dime; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Quick-Hitting Cold Snap Expands Across The Great Lakes; Storage Deficit To Flip Back To Surplus Next Week As Unseasonable Warmth Brings Brown Christmas To The Lower 48
Friday, December 19, 2025
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for December 6-12, the EIA announced Thursday morning that natural gas inventories fell by -167 BCF. This was 71 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average and the single largest draw for the week in the last 5 years, but was 2 BCF smaller than my -169 BCF projection. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal averaged a solid 2.7 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, the tightest imbalance since September. This means that, of the week’s 71 BCF of bullishness, 52 BCF was due to weather (i.e. strong heating demand) and about 19 BCF was due to favorable fundamentals. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 3579 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +32 BCF. The year-over-year deficit jumped to -61 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, natural gas inventories are at the third highest for the week in the last 5 years, though just slightly above 2023 for the third lowest.
Three out of the...
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