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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Prices Pull Back On Monday After Near-Term Models Retreat From Late-November Arctic Blast; Northeast Cooldown To Push Gas Demand Higher Today With Slightly Bullish Withdrawal Expected; Warmer Conditions On The Way With Daily Injections Projected To Return & Persist From Late This Week Until Thanksgiving
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices tumbled on Monday as the near-term models at least temporarily backed away from a pattern shift and arctic blast for late November. The front-month December 2025 contract tumbled by 21 cents or -4.5% to settle at $4.36/MMBTU, the lowest close since November 10. Natural gas ETFs, which now hold less volatile January contracts, outperformed with 1x UNG dropping just -3.0% and 2x BOIL shedding -6.2%.
Late last week and even into the weekend, the GFS and ECWMF models were hinting at the potential for a return to widespread arctic air after Thanksgiving by late next week. Sunday night into yesterday, however, both models backed off and, as shown in the Figure to the right, are now expecting Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) to be at or below the 5-year average through at least December 1 (at least at the time of this writing). As of late Monday evening, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was callin...
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