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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Pulls Back After So-So EIA Storage Withdrawal & Tamer Thanksgiving Pattern Shift; Long-Term Storage Projections Show Big Storage Surplus Eventually Reverting To A Deficit; Prices Are Near-Term Overvalued But Long-Term Fairly Valued; Unseasonably Mild Temperatures To Drive Bearish Injections Into Next Week Before Pattern Shift Brings In Much Colder Airmass
Friday, November 21, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for November 8-14, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -14 BCF in what was the first withdrawal of the 2025-26 heating season. This was 26 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average +12 BCF injection but did come in 4 BCF below my -18 BCF projected withdrawal. It was the only weekly withdrawal in the last 5 years for what is typically the final injection of the year. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the injection averaged a nearly neutral 0.2 BCF/d loose versus the 5-year average meaning that the withdrawal would have been only 1.4 BCF larger if supply and demand had been perfectly balanced. Gains in production and weaker powerburn were countered by record LNG export demand in what was the tightest Report since the first week of October. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 3946 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +146 BCF. Storage levels are 23 BCF lower than this time last year. As sho...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
