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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Sell The News: Natural Gas Plunges Again Despite Historic Storage Withdrawal As Balmy Christmas Looms; BOIL & KOLD Complete Rollover To March Contracts Presenting An Opportunity; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Strongest Wave Of Arctic Air This Season Pushes Into The Northern Plains; Long-Standing Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average Posed To Flip To A Deficit Next Week (Temporarily)
Friday, December 12, 2025
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for November 29-December 5, the EIA announced Thursday morning that storage tumbled by -177 BCF. This was 6 BCF larger than my projection and a massive 88 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average. It was the single largest drawdown for the week in the last 5 years, courtesy of impressive early-season arctic air during the second half of the week. Even on a temperature-adjusted basis, supply/demand imbalances tightened due to record LNG exports and lower wind generation. I estimate that imbalances averaged 0.4 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average during the week, the second tightest of the season so far. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 3746 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +103 BCF. The year-over-year deficit grew to -28 BCF versus 2024. Storage levels are now at the third highest in the last 5 years, below last year and 2020, as shown in the Figure to the right.
All five storag...
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