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Daily Commentary


Natural Gas Rises To 4+ Month High Following In-Line +106 BCF Storage Injection As Production Remains Static & Temperature Outlook Warm; Water-Logged East Can't Stop the Return Of Bullish Weekly Storage Injections This Week & Next; Inventories Increasingly Likely To Enter June At A Greater Than -500 BCF Storage Deficit

Chart Of The Day

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Friday, May 18, 2018
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for May 5-11, the EIA announced Thursday morning that natural gas inventories rose by +106 BCF. The injection was 2 BCF larger than my projection and 19 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. It was the largest injection since a +106 BCF build for the week ending June 2, 2017. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 1538 BCF while the storage deficit versus the 5-year average contracted to -501 BCF or -25%. The year-over-year deficit fell to -821 BCF or -35%. All 5 storage regions remain at large deficits versus their respective 5-year averages, led by the Midwest region at -154 BCF or -37%.


Following the morning's storage data, the EIA released supply/demand data for the past week, including the tail end of last week. Based on this data, domestic production averaged 79.8 BCF/day for May 5-11. While this is up an ugly 8.8 BCF/day year-over-year, production has seemingly hit at least a temporary ceiling, holding just below 80 ...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, May 17, 2018
WTI & Brent Oil Rise To New 3-Year Highs After EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Drawdowns As Exports Rise To Record Highs; EIA Projected To Announce First Triple-Digit Build Of 2018 In Today's Storage Report; Gas Demand To Slide Today Thanks To Rain-Cooled East As Realtime Inventories Top 1600 BCF, But Bullish Weekly Build Still Expected


Monday, May 14, 2018
Natural Gas Poised To Break Through 3-Months Of Resistance As Prices Top $2.80/MMBTU; EIA Expected To Announce First Triple-Digit Storage Injection Since July 2017 This Week, But Stalled Production & Southeast Heatwave To Drive Rare Bullish Inventory Build This Week


Friday, May 4, 2018
Natural Gas Steadies The Ship After Larger-Than-Expected Storage Injection, But Prices Still Fall To 2-Week Low; First Triple-Digit Inventory Since June 2017 Build Projected For Next Week; Injection-Season Ending Projection Data Now Available


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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.