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A new page integrating data from multiple models to generate gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) forecasts for the next 44 days. This page will be available to all through Friday, November 30, after which time it will be available to subscribers only. Click HERE to learn more about subscribing.

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Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Oil Prices Soar After EIA Reports Smaller-Than-Expected Inventory Build While Natural Gas Rallies As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Cools Further; EIA Projected To Announce Exceptionally Bullish (Though Long Since Priced In) -90 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Daily Gas Demand To Fall Ahead Of Cold Front Today With Small Injection Expected

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Thursday, November 21, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

In its weekly Petroleum Status Report for November 9-15, the EIA announced Wednesday morning that crude oil inventories rose by +1.4 MMbbls. While this was the fourth straight weekly inventory build (and ninth in the past 10 weeks), it was well below Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute (API) expectation of a +6.0 MMbbl build and was even slightly bullish versus the 5-year average +2.2 MMbbls. With the build, inventories rose to 450.4 MMbbls---the first time they have topped 450 MMbbls since July 12--and the storage surplus versus the 5-year average contracted slightly to +10.8 MMbbls. Additionally, thanks to a +4.8 MMbbl build this week last year, the year-over-year surplus contracted by nearly 50% to a negligible +3.5 MMbbls. It was a solid week for oil from a demand perspective. Refinery demand appears to have put in its seasonal bottom and rose again last week, climbing 0.5 MMbbls/day to 16.4 MMbbls/day, the highest since September 20, though still...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Oil & Natural Gas Both Sell-Off In Commodities Rout; Natural Gas Nears My Downside Price Target & Looks To Bounce As Near-Term Models Trend Colder, But Without A Long-Term Catalyst, Expect Rallies To Be Limited; EIA Expected To Report Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build Today; Natural Gas Inventories To Hold Steady Today As Unseasonably Mild Heartland Temperatures Suppress Demand

Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Another Case Of The Mondays: Natural Gas Falls Sharply To Open Second Straight Week As Near-Term Outlook Warms; Further Downside Potential Remains Should December Outlook Verify; Oil & Natural Gas Producers Drawing Aggressively On Drilled-But-Uncompleted Wells To Maintain Output--A Long-Term Bullish Signal; Gas Demand To Fall For A Third Straight Day With Bearish Storage Injection Likely Today

Monday, November 18, 2019
Natural Gas Demand To Fall Sharply This Week As Temperatures Moderate With First Bearish Weekly Withdrawal In A Month Expected; Late November Temperature Outlook Still Inconsistent, But Favors A Seasonally Cool Set-Up--Not Good Enough For The Bulls; Oil Rises On US-China Trade Deal Prospects & Slumping Rig Count--And Is Still Undervalued Despite Rising Inventories

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Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.