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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Can't Hold Gains After The EIA Reports A Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Draw & Near-Term Temperature Outlook Moderates--But Bulls Are Still In The Fight; Crude Oil Recovers After US-China Rumors; Domestic Supply Rises To All-Time Record High; Gas Demand To Bottom Today As Arctic Air Returns This Weekend

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Friday, January 18, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for January 5-11, the EIA announced Thursday morning that natural gas inventories fell by -81 BCF. This was 4 BCF smaller than my -85 BCF projection and, thanks to extensive warmth throughout the week, was 137 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. All 5 storage regions saw bearish withdrawals, led by the South Central region which, despite having the largest 5-year average withdrawal of any region (-73 BCF) actually saw the smallest draw of just -4 BCF, 69 BCF bearish all on its own. 3 out of the 5 storage regions are now at year-over-year surpluses according to the EIA data with only the Mountain and Pacific regions holding onto deficits. However, all 5 regions maintain robust deficits versus their 5 year average led, on an absolute basis by the South Central region at -136 BCF despite its exceptionally bearish draw this report, and by the Pacific region on a percentage basis at -26%. With the draw, natural gas inventories fell to 2533 BCF while...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, January 17, 2019
Undervalued Natural Gas Falls For A Second Day As Near-Term Computer Models Oscillate; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -84 BCF Storage Withdrawal Today; Oil Rises Despite Another Bearish Petroleum Status Report; Natural Gas Inventories Forecast To Flip To A Year-Over-Year Surplus Today For The First Time In Over 2 Years--But It Will Be Short-Lived


Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Natural Gas Pulls Back After 20% Rally As Near-Term Outlook Moderates From Bitterly Cold To Just Very Cold; EIA Forecast To Announce Another Bearish Inventory Draw Today As Bulls' Patients Gets Tested; Gas Demand To Fall For A Second Day Today As Northeast Warms Despite Early Arctic Air Across The Northern Plains


Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Volatility Is Back, Baby: Natural Gas Soars On Monday To Push Two-Session Gains To Over +20% As Multiple Arctic Blasts Likely Beginning Next Week; 2019 Year-To-Date Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio Gains Top +7.5%--But I May Have Moved Too Soon; Backwardation Puts The Bears On The Clock, But Bulls Still Need To Keep Exuberance In Check


Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive




Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

Inventories for the next 8 months & season-ending forecasts.

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

Today's live wind generation & impact on natural gas, updated hourly.

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Nuclear Powerplant Outages

US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.