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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Oil Declines Despite Larger-Than-Expected Crude Draw After The EIA Reports Big Refined Product Builds; EIA Projected To Announce Neutral +63 BCF Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today's Report; Gas Demand To Hold Steady As Heartland Heat Builds, But East Coast Cools; It's Hard Not To Be Near-Term Bearish On Natural Gas But Steep Long-Term Discount Favors The Bulls

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Thursday, July 18, 2019
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

In its weekly Petroleum Status report for July 6-12, the EIA announced Wednesday morning that crude oil inventories fell by -3.1 MMbbls. This was larger than Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute expectation of a -1.4 MMbbl draw and was slightly bullish versus the 5-year average -2.7 MMbbl draw. However, the decline in storage was less than a third the previous week's -9.5 MMbbl draw. The impact of individual components of supply and demand were likely muddled by the late-week influence from Tropical Storm Barry with drops in imports, exports, refinery demand and production offsetting eachother. A -0.3 MMbbl/day week-over-week decline in production to 12.0 MMbbls/day was partially offset by a -0.2 MMbbl/day decline in refinery demand. Imports slumped -0.5 MMbbls/day to 6.8 MMbbls/day--down a massive 2.2 MMbbls/day year-over-year--while exports dropped by an identical -0.5 MMbbls/day to 2.5 MMbbls/day as Barry interrupted shipping traffic into and out of Gulf ports. In fact, all of the...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Natural Gas Rout Continues As July & Early August Temperature Outlook Trends Cooler; Volatility Soars By Summertime Standards Presenting A Challenging, But Opportunistic Trading Environment; EIA Expected To Announce A Bearish Petroleum Status Report Today Led By Big Builds In Refined Products; Heatwave Cranks Up As Powerburn Likely To Set New 2019 High Today

Monday, July 15, 2019
Natural Gas Set To Pull Back As Models Trend Towards Late-July Cooldown, But Commodity Remains Attractive On Any Weakness; Tropical Storm Barry Moves Inland With Negligible Net Impact On Natural Gas LNG exports, Powerburn, Or Production; Natural Gas Demand To Bottom Today Before Temperatures Ramp Up In Widespread, But Short-Lived, Heatwave

Thursday, July 11, 2019
Crude Oil Tops $60/Barrel After The EIA Reports Bullish & Larger Than Expected -9.5 MMbbl Inventory Draw; EIA Forecast To Announce 17th Straight Bearish Natural Gas Build Today; Developing Tropical Storm Shuts In Gulf Of Mexico Oil & Natural Gas Production But Don't Get Swept Up In The Hurricane Trade--Unless You Are Looking For A Sell-The-News Opportunity

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Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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US Wind Output & Forecast

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US nuclear powerplant outages & impact on natural gas demand, updated daily.

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Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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