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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Fades On Profit-Taking, EIA Jitters, & Mild Temperature Outlook; Oil Follows Equities Markets Lower Despite Bullish EIA Petroleum Status Report; Slightly Bearish +81 BCF EIA Natural Gas Storage Injection Expected Today; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As East Coast Warms Back Up
Thursday, September 18, 2025
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Natural gas prices gapped higher again on Wednesday morning and appeared heading for a third straight gain only to pull back in the afternoon and finish with a small loss. The front-month October 2025 contract ultimately settled down less than a penny or 0.1% at $3.10/MMBTU. Natural gas ETFs underperformed due to additional losses after the close of floor trading with 1x UNG losing -0.9% and 2x BOIL dropping -1.9%. UNG completed its monthly rollover during the session and both ETFs now hold exclusively November 2025 contracts.
Yesterday’s retreat was likely largely driven by profit-taking after the surprising move higher the prior two sessions. However, concerns over a robust EIA storage injection today (more on that below) as well as an afternoon moderation in the Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) outlook, especially by the ECMWF model, as shown in the Figure to the right likely also weighed.
My sentiment remains unchanged. I would not be surprised to see some near-term w...
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