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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Domestic Natural Gas Prices Retreat On Monday While Global Prices Tumble On Easing Geopolitical Concern & Approaching Shoulder Season; Gas Prices Fairly Valued Near-Term, Undervalued Long-Term On El Nino Bets; Gas Demand To Inch Higher Today On Deep South Heat But Also Far Northern Tier Heating Demand
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices slumped on Monday as global energy prices tumbled and late-season cooling demand is poised to fade. The front-month October 2026 contract fell by 8 cents or -2.6% to settle at $2.84/MMBTU, the lowest since September 11. Prices are now nearly equal to year-ago levels, up just +1.5% year-over-year. Natural gas ETFs outperformed since they hold less volatile November contracts. 1x UNG shed -1.4% while 2x BOIL lost -2.8%. However, fueled by sharp declines oil prices, global natural gas prices registered much steeper losses. The European TTF and British NBP price points both plunged -7.7% while the East Asian JKM lost -5.5%, though all three are still up +115% to +130% year-over-year. In addition to the global energy sell-off, prices were also likely pressured lower by the coming transition from the Cooling Season to the Shoulder Season. Since the first few days of August, consistently hotter-than-normal temperatures—especially across the Southern Tier—have driven a stead...
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