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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Oil And Natural Gas Prices Both Rise, But Finish Well Off Their Highs; EIA reports Another Disappointing Petroleum Status Report, But Middle East Crisis Still Takes Center Stage; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +16 BCF Injection In Today’s Natural Gas Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today As Northeast Cools
Thursday, August 20, 2026
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Natural gas prices rose on Wednesday but finished well off session highs. The front-month September 2026 contract ended up 4 cents or 1.4% at $2.81/MMBTU. This is the highest close since July 24. However, prices dropped after the 2:30 PM ET close of floor trading and, as a result, ETFs actually finished in the red with 1x UNG down -0.9% and 2x BOIL off -2.2%.
Prices had initially risen over 2% at the open on expectations for consistently hot conditions persisting at least into early September to cut into the storage surplus while stronger powerburn and LNG exports and a pullback in production also supported sentiment. However, prices faded into the afternoon, most likely due to a sharp cooldown in the afternoon’s run of the ECMWF model resulting in a 15 GWDD decline in the model’s 14-day outlook, as shown in the Figure to the right.
My sentiment here is unchanged. I am still expecting a contraction in the storage surplus versus the 5-year average from near +180 BCF at p...
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