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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Falls Despite Improving Near-Term Temperature Outlook As Long Production Weighs On Longer-Term Sentiment; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Northeast Warms; Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Projected To Flip Back To A Surplus By Tonight
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Despite a rather significant improvement in the near-term temperature outlook during the preceding 72 hours, natural gas prices quickly surrendered early gains to log another loss to open the week on Monday. While the commodity did recover some of its losses in the afternoon, the front-month January 2025 contract still dropped 2 cents or 0.5% to settle at $3.97/MMBTU. Once again, the Spring contracts were punished more harshly than the Winter contracts and March 2025 prices dropped 4.0% to $3.06/MMBTU. As a result, ETFs logged steeper losses with 1x UNG (which holds February contracts) slumping -2.8% and 2x BOIL (which holds March contracts) tumbling -8.6%.
The loss came despite the fact that, not only did the near-term temperature outlook trend colder over the weekend, but it extended this trend during Monday’s trading session. This is reflected in the Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) outlooks from the GFS and ECMWF as shown in the Figure to the right. ...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
