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Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Bloodbath: Natural Gas Sees Second Biggest September Decline On Record After Larger-Than-Expected EIA-Reported Storage Injection; This Is Why It Happened & Why The Selloff Was Overdone; Gas Demand To Finish Out The Week On A High Note Today With a Slightly Bullish Weekly Injection Expected; LNG Export Demand To Top 8 BCF/day Today For The First Time Since April

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Friday, September 18, 2020
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for September 5-11, the EIA announced Thursday morning that natural gas inventories rose by +89 BCF. This was a disappointing 10 BCF larger than my projection and 12 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. With the build, inventories rose to 3614 BCF while the storage surplus versus the 5-year average climbed to +421 BCF. Inventories are +535 BCF larger than this time last year. For a second straight week, the South Central Region was the primary contributor to the bearishness of the injection. The Region saw a +33 BCF build, 18 BCF bearish compared to the 5-year average +15 BCF. This was countered by the Midwest and East Regions, whose injections were both 3 BCF smaller than the 5-year average. The big injection across the South Central Region was due to the combination of unseasonably cool conditions across the Gulf Coast states as well as comparatively weak LNG export demand. The Cameron Plant in western Louisiana, as has been frequently disc...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Front-Month Natural Gas Rallies On Production Declines, Even As Near-Term Temperature Outlook Remains Bearish; Oil Bounces On Gulf Of Mexico Shut-Ins With Further Gains Possible Today On Expected EIA Crude Oil Inventory Drawdown; Gas Demand To Drop Today As Hurricane Sally Brings Power Outages & Much Cooler Conditions To The Deep South

Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Natural Gas Bounces On Gulf Of Mexico Production Shut-Ins, But Can’t Hold The Majority Of Its Morning Gains; Higher Prices Likely This Fall As Storage Concerns Are Overblown Amidst Tightening Supply/Demand Imbalance; Gas Demand To Trend Higher Today On Building Plains Warmth & Production Drop

Monday, September 14, 2020
Natural Gas Logs 12% Weekly Drop On Tepid Late-September Outlook But Building Bullish Headwinds Signal A Near-Term Rebound; Oil Prices Sink On Demand Concerns & First Inventory Build In 7 Weeks; LNG Exports Roar Back Above 7 BCF/Day, But Cameron Still Shut-Down; Gulf Of Mexico Producers Begin To Shut In Production (Again) As Sally Approaches

Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive

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Natural Gas Long-Term Storage Projections

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Natural Gas Fair Price Analysis

Price premium or discount based on storage projections & historical prices.

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Near-Term Temperature Forecast

Based on GFS model output, maps updated four times daily, stats updated twice daily.

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Natural Gas Exports

Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG plant & LNG tanker positions.

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CAISO Solar Output

Today's Solar Output from Caiso Region (California), updated hourly.

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Crude Oil Storage

Observed inventories reported by EIA & 6-month projections.

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