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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Profit-Takers Step In Despite Bullish EIA Natural Gas Storage Report; Natural Gas Fairly-Valued At Present To Undervalued This Winter & Spring As Investors Eye Narrowing Surplus But Building El Nino; Gas Demand To Hold Steady Today As Impressive Late-Summer Heat Dominates The Lower 48; Bullish Daily Injections Expected Through Next Week As Heartland Stays Hot
Friday, September 4, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for August 22-28, the EIA announced that inventories rose by +30 BCF. This was 7 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average and was right at my projection. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the injection averaged 1.0 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average. This means that essentially the entirety of the week’s 7 BCF of bullishness was due to supportive supply/demand fundamentals, especially LNG export demand. It was a second straight tight weekly imbalance, the first back-to-back bullish weeks since early May. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 3214 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +160 BCF. The year-over-year deficit jumped to -50 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories are at the third highest level for the week in the last 5 years, below 2024 and last year. However, storage is closing in on 2023.
Four out of the five storage regions registered bullish injections or with...
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