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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Slumps After Disappointing EIA Storage Report But Gets Bailed Out By Cooling Trend Late January Forecast; Projected End-Of-Season Storage Minimum Stabilizes; Gas Demand To Fall Slightly Today Before Surging Next Week As Reinforcing Arctic Air Arrives; Twin 200 BCF Withdrawals Possible To Wrap Up January
Friday, January 16, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for January 3-9, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -71 BCF. This was 11 BCF smaller than my -82 BCF projection and an ugly 75 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average -146 BCF. On a temperature-adjusted basis, imbalances averaged a slight 0.4 BCF/day or 3 BCF/week loose, or bearish, versus the 5-year average. This was a significant improvement from the previous 2 weeks which included the Christmas and New Year Holidays when imbalances averaged 3-5 BCF/day loose, which is typical due to commercial/industrial demand suppression. This means that the majority of the bearishness of the Report was due to temperature-driven demand issues rather than underlying fundamental weakness. With the drawdown, natural gas inventories retreated to 3185 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average widened to +106 BCF. The year-over-year deficit flipped to a +33 BCF surplus, a more than 150 BCF weekly pivot. Storage levels are now at a 5-y...
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