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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rises On Monday As September Temperature Outlook Stays Hot; Tropical Storm Edouard Likely A Nuisance Threat To LNG export Facilities Along The Gulf Coast; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Heat Expands Eastward
Tuesday, September 1, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices rose on Monday to start the week off on a positive note. The new front-month October 2026 contract gained 5 cents or 1.6% to settle at $2.94/MMBTU. It was the highest close since July 10. Among ETFs, 1x UNG added +2.0% while 2x BOIL, which holds less volatile November 2026 contracts, gained a more modest +2.1%.
First and foremost, natural gas prices continue to find support from the near-term temperature outlook which features consistently hotter-than-normal temperatures east of the Rockies for at least the first half of September. While both the GFS and, especially, the ECMWF trended slightly cooler with fewer Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) over the weekend, the 14-day GWDD outlook remains far above the 5-year average as shown in the Figure to the right. As of late Monday evening, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was calling for 173 GWDDs for September 1-14, easily the single most for t...
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