Daily Natural Gas Supply & Demand Data (SAMPLE)

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Daily natural gas supply/demand data--including production, imports from Canada, exports to Mexico, and LNG export--is based on pipeline flows. Early-cycle data for the upcoming day is updated at approximately 12 AM EDT each morning. This is then revised the following evening based on late-cycle data.

Click below for full details on each component of natural gas supply and demand:

Imports From Canada
LNG Exports
Exports To Mexico
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Daily Natural Gas Supply/Demand Commentary

Natural Gas Imports From Canada Fall Sharply On Mild Northeast While LNG Exports Dip, But Still Set New Weekly High; Supply/Demand Imbalances Tighten To End The Week

Friday, December 11, 2020

Daily Natural Gas Imports From Canada

Figure 1: Click here for more information on on natural gas imports from Canada.

Natural gas production will hold nearly steady today, dropping just -0.2 BCF to 89.8 BCF/day, down -4.8 BCF/day from last year. However, the big move on the supply side will come from imports from Canada which will tumble -0.8 BCF/day to just 4.4 BCF/day today. This is the lowest since November 27 and is only +0.5 BCF/day higher than a year ago, the narrowest differential since November 20. The drop in net imports comes as temperatures warm across the Northeast and will be driven by a -0.4 BCF/day decline in volumes coming across at Waddington, NY as well as a +0.2 BCF/day uptick in exports crossing into Canada at St. Claire, MI. Total Supply today stands at 94.2 BCF/day, down -4.2 BCF/day from last year.

On the demand side, LNG exports will dip by -0.2 BCF/day to 11.1 BCF/day, still up +3.4 BCF/day from last year. The drop will be driven by a -0.1 BCF decline in volumes to Sabine Pass and a -0.1 BCF/day decline at Corpus Christi. Nonetheless, LNG feedgas demand has now held above 11 BCF/day for 8 straight days and, for the storage week of December 5-11 that ends today, total volumes reached 79.0 BCF/day, a new record high and up +24.8 BCF from last year. Exports to Mexico, meanwhile, will hold steady at 5.8 BCF/day today, up +0.5 BCF/day from last year.

The year-over-year natural gas supply/demand imbalance will tighten by 1.2 BCF/day from yesterday based on these early-cycle pipeline numbers to -8.5 BCF/day tight versus 2019. The imbalance versus the 5-year average will similarly tighten by 0.9 BCF/day to 4.3 BCF/day tight, a new 30-day high. Of note, imbalance numbers for the past week loosened somewhat yesterday after the EIA’s weekly powerburn number surprisingly came in 1 BCF/day weaker than my projections, resulting in a downward revision.

Temperature-Independent Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalance Data

Short term natural gas demand is heavily influenced by the temperature outlook--especially during the winter--such that an arctic cold snap can mask an otherwise weak natural gas supply/demand imbalance while a mild stretch during the heart of the winter can mask a bullish imbalance.

These week-to-week variations in the weather can make it challenging to assess the overall health of the natural gas market just by looking at the weekly EIA Storage Reports.

The variables of supply and demand presented here--production, imports from Canada, exports to Mexico, as well as powerburn demand (which has elements of temperature-independence and -dependence)--are largely independent of temperature and can be compared to their values from last year and the 5-year average to present a more accurate assessment of market health.

A negative imbalance versus either of these comparison periods indicates that the supply/demand imbalance is at a deficit and is bullish. A positive imbalance indicates that the market is at at surplus and is bearish.

Year-Over-Year Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalance

Natural Gas Supply/Demand Imbalance Versus The 5-Year Average