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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Plunges To Wrap Up 2025 After Bearish EIA Storage Report With Further Selling Pressure Possible As Mid-January Temperature Outlook Trends Milder; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Great Lakes Moderates, Though Another Bullish Daily Withdrawal Is Still Likely; Longstanding Year-Over-Year Storage Deficit Projected To Flip To Surplus Next Week As Warmth Becomes Widespread
Friday, January 2, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for December 20-26, the EIA announced Wednesday morning—a day early due to the New Years Holiday—that natural gas inventories fell by -38 BCF. This was an ugly 82 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and handily missed my -48 BCF projection. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal averaged -3.4 BCF/day loose, or bearish, versus the 5-year average, the weakest imbalance since June. This means that approximately 24 BCF of the 82 BCF of bearishness was driven by fundamental factors. This is not surprising as the week included the Christmas holiday and its associated commercial/industrial demand suppression, though record production and a dip in LNG exports also likely weighed. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 3375 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average flipped to a +58 BCF surplus. The year-over-year deficit was more than cut in half to -55 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, storage levels remain the thi...
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