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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rallies--But Gives Up Half Of Its Gains--After Near-Term Temperature Outlook Cools And Then Moderates; Gas Demand To Rise Today Ahead Of Quick-Hitting Mid-Week Arctic Outbreak
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices rallied sharply on Monday but finished well off the highs as the near-term temperature outlook remained front and center. After trading as high as high as $3.32/MMBTU at the open, the front-month January 2024 contract ultimately settled up 11 cents or 3.4% at $3.18/MMBTU. The 1x ETF UNG added +3.0% while 2x BOIL rose +5.1%. BOIL continues its every-other-month rollover, selling January and buying March contracts. The fund now holds 40% less volatile March contracts, which explains some of the ETF’s underperformance yesterday. UNG continues to hold exclusively January contracts ahead of its monthly rollover to February contracts in the next 10 days. Yesterday’s big gap up was driven by a weekend cooling trend in the mid-to-late December temperature outlook. However, this trend flattened or even reversed yesterday, as shown in the Figure to the right, with both the GFS and ECWMF losing Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs). As of Monday evening, my Consensus Model—which int...
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