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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers

Natural Gas Pulls Back Slightly After Bearish, But Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Withdrawal; Third Highest Seasonal Minimum Storage Level Expected This Spring; Rangebound Trading With An Upward Bias Expected Near-Term; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Quick-Hitting Cold Snap Retreats; Historic Storage Injection Possible Next Week

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Friday, March 1, 2024
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.

In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for February 17-23, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -96 BCF. This was a rough 47 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average though it was slightly larger than my -92 BCF projection—and even further above the bulk of the analyst consensus which was in the -80-90 BCF range. The bearishness of the report was driven largely by unseasonably mild temperatures that suppressed heating demand, especially at the end of the week. However, some of this bearishness was offset by a tighter supply/demand imbalance. After two weeks of looseness, imbalances flipped back to a slight +0.2 BCF/day tight versus the 5-year average, largely courtesy of lower production. With the -96 BCF withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 2374 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average widened to +498 BCF. The year-over-year surplus actually fell by 16 BCF to +248 BCF.

Four out of the five storage regions registered bearish withdrawals, wit...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, February 29, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies In April’s First Front-Month Session On Continued Production Drops & Hints Of Cooler Mid-March Temperatures; Overvaluations Versus Fair Price Widening; Oil Falls Slightly After Bearish EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish-92 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today On Short-Lived Cold Snap

Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Front Month Natural Gas Contract Slumps Into Expiration But Later Contracts Rally As Gas Prices Find Themselves Sandwiched Between Bullish & Bearish Catalysts; Oil Rises On Potential Extension Of OPEC Production Cuts But Bearish Crude Build Is Likely In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand Poised To Rise Sharply Today As Potent Cold Front Drives Impressive Day-Over-Day Cooldown

Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Natural Gas Rallies On Monday As Production Drop Outweighs Record Warmth Among Investors; Options Expirations Shenanigans On Tap Today As March Contract Set To Expire; Gas Demand To Fall Again Today With Rare February Storage Injection Expected But Encroaching Cold Front Will Soon Bring A Brief Taste Of Winter

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