Natural Gas Monthly Commentary & Outlook ***NEW!***

I have published a Natural Gas Monthly Commentary & Outlook for February. This is a 3000 word, 18 Figure discourse on pricing, supply/demand fundamentals, weather, and my trading plan as it stands entering the month and my expectations for February ahead. It is thorough, but reads smoothly and doesn't get bogged down in minutiae. It will be useful for all traders and students of energy, but I feel that it will be particularly beneficial for those who don’t subscribe for daily data but still want a nice overview to familiarize themselves with underpinings of the natural gas sector. The Commentary costs $15 and can be purchased via Credit Card, PayPal, Apple Pay, or Google Pay. Get your copy at This Link. Thank you for your support!


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--> Wind Generation & Natural Gas Demand Displacement ***NEW!***

--> Intraday Temperature Data

--> Realtime Natural Gas Inventories

--> Oil & Natural Gas Quotes & Fair Price Data

--> Powerburn Demand

--> Celsius Energy Portfolio Holdings (Subscribers)

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As Celsius Energy continues to grow, costs and the time commitment to keep the site maintained build rapidly. For this reason, I am offering premium features for a small monthly fee to help support the site. These include:
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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers


Natural Gas Rallies After Neutral EIA Storage Report & Increasingly Supportive Weather Pattern; Projected End-Of-Season Storage Minimum Falls Back Below 1700 BCF; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Colder Temperatures Expand Across Northern Tier; Bearish Sub-100 BCF Storage Withdrawal Expected This Week before Higher Demand Returns Next Week; Active Weather Pattern On The Way

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Friday, February 7, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.


In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report covering January 25-31, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -174 BCF. This was close to my -170 BCF projection and was right at the 5-year average. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal averaged 2.3 BCF/day or 21 BCF/week tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average. This was the first tight weekly imbalance of the year, courtesy of stronger powerburn and LNG exports. This means that bearish temperatures were essentially cancelled out by favorable imbalances, leading to the neutral withdrawal. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 2397 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average held nearly steady at -111 BCF. The year-over-year deficit jumped by 64 BCF to -208 BCF. Storage levels are at the third lowest in the last 5 years for this point in the season, well above 2022’s 5-year minimum but just above 2023 for second place, as shown in the Figure to the right. Interestingly, the...

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Last 3 Daily Commentaries:

Thursday, February 6, 2025
Natural Gas Reverses Higher After ECMWF Trends Colder; Oil Prices Drop After Disappointing EIA Petroleum Status Report; EIA Expected To Announce Neutral -170 BCF Withdrawal In Today’s Natural Gas Storage Report; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Eastern Seaboard & Midwest Warm


Wednesday, February 5, 2025
Natural Gas Curbs Monday’s Gains On Tuesday After Near-Term Models Back Away From Mid-February Arctic Blast & Trump Delays Tariffs; Natural Gas Undervaluation Widens After Pullback; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build & Split Refined Product Storage Data In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Storm System Brings Wintry Slop To the East


Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Natural Gas Surges On Colder February Outlook, Even As Energy Tariffs Are Postponed; Further Upside Is Possible Based On Fair Price Analysis, But Lies In The Hands Of The Late-Month Outlook & Production; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Northern Tier Cools, But Mild South Ensures Another Bearish Daily Build


Click HERE For Full 30-Day Archive



Popular Charts, Tables, & Maps
Weekly Commentaries **NEW!***

These are a series of commentaries about broad topics and trends in the oil and natural gas sector. These will typically be published on Saturday or Sunday and will be publicly available. I hope you find them interesting and educational.


Sunday, March 31, 2024
Winter 2023-24 & The Natural Gas Sector: A Post Mortem

Sunday, March 10, 2024
It’s The Slow Knife That Cuts The Deepest: How Insidious Contango Can Smother The Natural Gas Trader & How To Avoid It

Sunday, March 3, 2024
Paradoxical? An Analysis Of Seasonal Trends In The Natural Gas Sector
Intraday Natural Gas Storage Change

Realtime Natural Gas Inventories

Advanced Model Page

The Advanced Modeling Page integrates data from multiple models to generate gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) forecasts for the next 44 days and is available to subscribers. Click HERE to learn more about subscribing.

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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.