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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Investors Shrug At Bearish But Slightly Better-Than-Expected EIA Natural Gas Storage Injection; Storage Surplus Still Plodding Towards +200 BCF Despite Robust LNG Exports & Impending Heat; Gas Demand To Drop Today As Temperatures Cool Across The Northeast; Heatwave To Expand Eastward Next Week, Driving Projected Daily Injections Below The 5-Year Average
Friday, July 18, 2025
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for July 5-11, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +46 BCF. This was a slight 5 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and just below my +48 BCF projection. On a temperature-adjusted basis, imbalances were comparable to last week, averaging -2.4 BCF/day or 17 BCF/week loose, or bearish, versus the 5-year average, courtesy of continued robust production. This means that the entirety of the bearishness of the injection—and then some--was driven by fundamentals rather than temperature. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 3052 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average widened to +178 BCF. The year-over-year deficit continued to decline, falling to -156 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, natural gas inventories are at the third highest level for the date in the last 5 years, below only last year and 2020.
The South Central Region was responsible for the bulk of the Report’s bearishness with...
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