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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rises For Third Straight Session To 2-Month High After Another Better-Than-Expected EIA Storage Injection; There Are Headwinds, But The Path Of Least Resistance Remains Upwards; Gas Demand To Rise This Weekend Into Next Week As Late-Season Heat Builds; Storage Surplus Versus The 5-Year Average Could Fall To +200 BCF By The End Of September
Friday, September 13, 2024
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report covering August 31-September 6, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +40 BCF. This was a strong 27 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average +67 BCF and came in 9 BCF below my projection. The injection was also a 5-year low, 10 BCF below last year’s +50 BCF previous low. The bullish build came despite temperatures that were generally cool during the week. In fact, I calculate that on a temperature-adjusted basis, supply/demand imbalances averaged -5.4 BCF/day tight versus the 5-year average last week, a new 2024 high. This means that, if imbalances were neutral, we would have seen a +78 BCF injection (40 BCF + 5.4 BCF/day x 7 days) with last week’s temperatures, 11 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. The tightness of the injection came courtesy of ongoing coal-to-gas switching that bolstered powerburn, strong LNG exports, and soft production.
With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 3387 BCF while the su...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
