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Natural Gas Fair Price Model

Click below for full details on each element concerning Natural Gas Investing:
Intraday Price & Volatility Data
Fair Price Model
Natural Gas ETF Futures Holdings
Money Manager Long & Short Positions


What Is The Fair Price & How Is It calculated?

The natural gas fair price is a projection of a neutral level for natural gas based on the following elements:

1.) Storage Surplus Or Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average: Gas prices have long corresponded to underground storage with a large deficit associated with higher prices & a large surplus with lower prices.

2.) European Inventories & Prices: Over the past 5-7 years as LNG exports have emerged, US gas prices have established some level of tracking with European (TTF, NBP) and East Asian (JKM) price points, which themselves are tied to local inventories.

3.) Supply/Demand Imbalance: A tight supply/demand imbalance, even in the setting of a storage surplus, is historically associated with higher relative prices. The opposite is also true in that a weak imbalance can overcome a large storage deficit & lead to lower prices.

4.) Seasonality: Due to increased uncertainty associated with the adequacy of storage & wintertime temperatures, gas prices heading into the heating season often carry a premium.






Current & Projected Natural Gas Fair Price
Observed & Projected Fair Prices For Natural Gas Futures & ETFs


Over/Undervaluation: 1-Year History
Over/Undervaluation: 1-Year Comparison



Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, pricing data, commentaries & fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
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