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Latest Daily Commentary

Smaller-Than-Expected Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Prompts 4% Sell-Off As Impending Warm-Up Also Weighs; Final Arctic Blast To Support Exceptional Demand Today & through The Weekend, Driving First -300 BCF Weekly Storage Withdrawal Before Milder Weather Arrives Next Week; LNG Feedgas Demand Rises To Record

Friday, January 5, 2018

A smaller-than-expected natural gas storage withdrawal by the EIA prompted an acceleration of Wednesday's profit-taking as the commodity dropped over 4% to settle back under $2.90/MMBTU. In its weekly natural gas storage report for the week of December 23-29, the EIA announced that natural gas inventories declined by -206 BCF. This was the largest storage withdrawal of the 2017-2018 heating season so far and 107 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average, but came in a disappointing 18 BCF smaller than my projected -224 BCF withdrawal. Admittedly, the week included the Christmas holiday and its associated unpredictable commercial and industrial demand suppression so it is difficult to infer too much about the underlying supply/demand balance of the week. Driving the withdrawal was a large increase in demand with residential/commercial demand approaching 50 BCF/day, up 15 BCF/day from the same week last year. Powerburn was also robust at 26 BCF/day, up nearly 7 BCF/day year-over-year. Natura...

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Intraday Natural Gas Pricing Data

Celsius Energy Portfolio Data

Intraday Temperature data

Intraday nationwide temperature data is calculated on a population-weighted basis using a network of 210 reporting stations. The data is updated hourly throughout the day and is compared to a 1981-present average.

Current US Temperatures

Source: Weather.com

Intraday Natural Gas Storage Data

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today's projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Natural Gas Storage Data

4-Week Natural Gas Projected Inventories Summary

Week 1 Storage Projection Details

Week 2 Storage Projection Details

Week 3 Storage Projection Details

Week 4 Storage Projection Details

Near-Term Temperature Data

Detailed Temperature Forecast Data: Day 1

Detailed Temperature Forecast Data: Day 2

Detailed Temperature Forecast Data: Day 3

Detailed Temperature Forecast Data: Day 4

Detailed Temperature Forecast Data: Day 5

Detailed Temperature Forecast Data: Day 6

Detailed Temperature Forecast Data: Day 7

Natural Gas LNG Feedgas & Exports

Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US' first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere's wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance.

LNG Exports & Tankers

LNG tankers transport natural gas that has been cooled and compressed to 1/600th its original volume from Sabine Pass to markets throughout the world. Most tankers have a carrying capacity of the equivalent of 2-5 BCF of gaseous natural gas. The maps and tables below plots the positions of the active fleet of over 300 LNG tankers that have logged a position within the past 3 days.

Map Of LNG Tankers In The Western Atlantic

Natural Gas Powerburn

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

Departure Of Intraday Powerburn From 30-Day Average By ISO Region